Market · 2 of 13 outcomes
Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:03 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | No | 284 | 74.1¢ | $240 | Proven+$5.91 per $100 · 7,365 bets |
| bissy.0x5329…7eb0 | No | 250 | 80.6¢ | $211 | — |
| jesusonxco967660x7ee6…a798 | No | 217 | 61.7¢ | $183 | — |
| grandmothergrammy0x2d5b…e94b | No | 193 | 60.0¢ | $163 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 138 | 76.5¢ | $116 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 5,701 bets |
| 0x61b5…40c6 | No | 98 | 55.4¢ | $83 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | No | 76 | 89.0¢ | $64 | Losing−$7.72 per $100 · 3,183 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 406 | 20.1¢ | $63 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| memorymaker20490x9259…c2d3 | No | 65 | 72.3¢ | $55 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 338 | 30.6¢ | $52 | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 32,781+ bets · updating |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 175 | 29.1¢ | $27 | Positive+$3.44 per $100 · 14,414 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 24 | 63.0¢ | $21 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,922 bets |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | No | 12 | 88.5¢ | $10 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | Yes | 60 | 28.5¢ | $9 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 56 | 28.9¢ | $9 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,781 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 55 | 27.7¢ | $9 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,245 bets |
| TruthSignalFramework0x7e64…c43e | Yes | 50 | 30.8¢ | $8 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 44 | 22.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 30 | 46.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 5,428 bets |
| Onixrock0xa543…d96c | Yes | 30 | 28.8¢ | $5 | — |
| obscure10x8268…e7fd | Yes | 20 | 20.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$8.89 per $100 · 1,890 bets |
| bechamel0xd322…8503 | Yes | 20 | 29.0¢ | $3 | — |
| smarterstrat0xe550…6f6e | Yes | 20 | 20.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | Yes | 14 | 39.0¢ | $2 | — |
| just-bettor0xa742…9856 | Yes | 14 | 10.0¢ | $2 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 10 | 18.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$9.08 per $100 · 9,048 bets |
| scalerr0xe50e…45c5 | Yes | 10 | 21.7¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x4029…7639 | No | 2 | 86.6¢ | $1 | — |
| enderwnd0x055d…5a73 | Yes | 6 | 43.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x5f3e…5337 | No | 0 | 64.0¢ | $0 | — |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 0 | 62.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.09 per $100 · 3,320 bets |
| monoclith0x24e8…4546 | Yes | 1 | 31.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | No | 0 | 81.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 75.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | Yes | 0 | 29.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 108 events · $6.11M in play