Market · 1 of 13 outcomes
Google matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lamyk0xc004…c095 | No | 461 | 67.8¢ | $378 | — |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | No | 341 | 44.5¢ | $280 | Positive+$2.44 per $100 · 5,624 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 299 | 66.1¢ | $245 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| idl0x726c…6bfd | No | 180 | 63.9¢ | $148 | Proven+$9.67 per $100 · 890 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 453 | 34.3¢ | $82 | — |
| 0x61b5…40c6 | No | 99 | 46.2¢ | $81 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 268 | 22.1¢ | $48 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,902+ bets · updating |
| memorymaker20490x9259…c2d3 | No | 50 | 64.5¢ | $41 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 50 | 68.0¢ | $41 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| 0x42fb…dc57 | No | 43 | 59.0¢ | $35 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 40 | 84.0¢ | $33 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 179 | 46.0¢ | $32 | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 176 | 26.9¢ | $32 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 14,399 bets |
| markusip0x6200…04cf | No | 30 | 67.0¢ | $25 | — |
| greatbritain0x92a7…eb78 | Yes | 129 | 29.2¢ | $23 | Proven+$32.11 per $100 · 195 bets |
| ramseypatricia0xad6e…0c03 | No | 23 | 66.0¢ | $18 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 22 | 72.9¢ | $18 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| bensonjackie0x454d…4498 | No | 19 | 69.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Trading4Fridge0x2525…b919 | Yes | 85 | 34.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 2,426 bets |
| TheTurkishGoat0x1aab…6c6f | No | 14 | 69.9¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xeae7…8e9e | No | 14 | 72.8¢ | $11 | — |
| Bsau40x8b44…63fb | Yes | 56 | 38.1¢ | $10 | — |
| TruthSignalFramework0x7e64…c43e | Yes | 55 | 35.0¢ | $10 | — |
| ferpalantir0xcd76…22eb | Yes | 52 | 31.9¢ | $9 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 40 | 27.5¢ | $7 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 35 | 27.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x812b…bbcf | No | 7 | 90.4¢ | $6 | — |
| Miguel2621440x2df5…51ac | Yes | 33 | 51.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$4.12 per $100 · 9,181 bets |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | Yes | 30 | 32.0¢ | $5 | — |
| tradingBot4340x28ff…c1e7 | No | 6 | 62.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 28 | 50.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| Herisson0xc5d6…cf7a | No | 5 | 58.0¢ | $4 | — |
| metifenildato0xa038…52f3 | No | 5 | 69.9¢ | $4 | — |
| walkwithyourboy0xbc1f…8f78 | Yes | 22 | 46.2¢ | $4 | — |
| Slackjaw0x6236…6881 | Yes | 20 | 43.0¢ | $4 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 3 | 77.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 13 | 23.7¢ | $2 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 3 | 57.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$2.06 per $100 · 3,296 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 10 | 31.2¢ | $2 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 9 | 11.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| sykevlc0x7a78…818e | No | 2 | 63.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Po1yBot-wfDDVt3EQS0x8ca4…7e83 | Yes | 7 | 45.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x1828…5bcc | Yes | 6 | 36.2¢ | $1 | — |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | No | 1 | 73.0¢ | $1 | — |
| smileudance0xaa73…c2c4 | Yes | 3 | 32.9¢ | $1 | — |
| heaven-h-4130x4b38…008f | Yes | 3 | 14.5¢ | $1 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 2 | 47.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| 0x4029…7639 | Yes | 2 | 52.5¢ | $0 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 0 | 59.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| ZhouCD0xa89c…1410 | Yes | 1 | 23.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.33 per $100 · 815 bets |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | No | 0 | 72.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x1ef0…e28e | Yes | 1 | 22.3¢ | $0 | — |
| b570x4865…904d | No | 0 | 70.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 57.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 130,993 bets |
| FortunaFelix0x370c…3eb1 | No | 0 | 66.6¢ | $0 | — |
| HE110W0R1D0xa86f…022c | No | 0 | 84.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd91e…b3d2 | No | 0 | 75.7¢ | $0 | — |
| scalerr0xe50e…45c5 | No | 0 | 62.0¢ | $0 | — |
| BASSATS010xe4ca…1383 | Yes | 0 | 30.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Hochul3250x5284…27f5 | Yes | 0 | 49.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 25.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.06M in play