Market · 12 of 18 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 14, 2026, 10:27 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CakeBake0x9d80…fcaf | No | 6,743 | 99.9¢ | $6.74K | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 217 | 99.3¢ | $217 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 6,885 bets |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | No | 200 | 98.8¢ | $200 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 8,551 bets |
| 0xa169…1b73 | No | 116 | 99.8¢ | $116 | — |
| 66yih0x5b67…edcc | No | 111 | 99.3¢ | $111 | — |
| 999jkjl0xcb19…e249 | No | 102 | 99.3¢ | $102 | — |
| iliabouchouev0x95dc…4b45 | No | 40 | 99.9¢ | $40 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 16,947 bets |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 37 | 98.2¢ | $37 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 29,978 bets |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 14,843 | 0.2¢ | $15 | — |
| qrqr990xc30f…e46c | No | 10 | 99.9¢ | $10 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 9,407 | 0.9¢ | $9 | — |
| 5678989HJK0x0b9a…7f19 | No | 7 | 99.9¢ | $7 | New66 settled bets |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 5,811 | 3.3¢ | $6 | Losing−$1.02 per $100 · 2,248 bets |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 3,306 bets |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $5 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 4,462 | 2.3¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.39 per $100 · 7,320 bets |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 4,042 bets |
| RickRockRick0x35f3…cfd0 | Yes | 3,600 | 2.8¢ | $4 | — |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 2.9¢ | $3 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 2,603 | 0.4¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.44 per $100 · 1,112 bets |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 2,089 | 0.5¢ | $2 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 2,000 | 2.0¢ | $2 | New94 settled bets |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,000 | 3.8¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.74 per $100 · 2,996 bets |
| Fablurou0x3256…830c | Yes | 1,927 | 0.4¢ | $2 | — |
| JoyL0x0862…9a02 | Yes | 1,500 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.93 per $100 · 534 bets |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 1,100 | 0.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$12.71 per $100 · 3,549 bets |
| Odelia0xa26e…b55e | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.37 per $100 · 9,441 bets |
| REBORN100x8196…0954 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 805 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 755 | 1.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.49 per $100 · 125,659+ bets · updating |
| Roadto1Billion0x60b0…4a62 | Yes | 700 | 0.8¢ | $1 | New65 settled bets |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 566 | 1.7¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.82 per $100 · 3,570 bets |
| Melao0x48a3…bfec | Yes | 520 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $1 | — |
| AndreaPirlo0x09b4…e56d | Yes | 460 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 4,921 bets |
| 0x544e…86dc | Yes | 460 | 0.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 1,612 bets |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | Yes | 400 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.00 per $100 · 14,039 bets |
| 212octopus0xbf8e…2f94 | Yes | 400 | 2.8¢ | $0 | — |
| oboltusovao0x4a67…65c8 | Yes | 310 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.24 per $100 · 1,384 bets |
| MailAJ-Long-Term0xda4d…c8ee | Yes | 290 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,377 bets |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 250 | 5.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 5,153 bets |
| 0x4eb9…97f7 | Yes | 250 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 218 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Badekarret0xe343…23fd | Yes | 200 | 0.5¢ | $0 | — |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 198 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 177 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Qatalyst0x65f7…86dd | Yes | 165 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$81.55 per $100 · 22,315 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 137 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.70 per $100 · 128,785 bets |
| Yoyobinks0x5e6a…97f2 | Yes | 127 | 1.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 120 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 120 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 195,833 bets |
| runzero0x54c0…a338 | Yes | 111 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| owla0x0517…d513 | Yes | 100 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| SpringlyFawl0xfbed…a665 | Yes | 58 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$11.18 per $100 · 11,552 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 6 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.96 per $100 · 112,487 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 92 overlapping windows · 11 events · $1.03M in play
Exactly one of this event's 18 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.