Market · 7 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AndreaPirlo0x09b4…e56d | No | 771 | 94.3¢ | $743 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 9,373 | 4.4¢ | $342 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| BernandoNaty0xfab3…dee0 |
| No |
| 237 |
| 95.0¢ |
| $228 |
| — |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $197 | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $183 | — |
| sebyastiens0xbc62…4f5e | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $183 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | No | 160 | 94.0¢ | $155 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $146 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
| TweetPulse.Live0xbbdc…5d81 | Yes | 3,950 | 4.0¢ | $144 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 120 | 99.0¢ | $116 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,477 bets |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 2,754 | 4.0¢ | $101 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 99 | 94.3¢ | $95 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 27,486 bets |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 2,546 | 3.8¢ | $93 | — |
| elonplstweets0x50a8…98ed | Yes | 2,295 | 6.1¢ | $84 | — |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 1,920 | 1.5¢ | $70 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 1,720 | 5.5¢ | $63 | — |
| 0xedd2…a09c | Yes | 1,601 | 5.7¢ | $58 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 1,528 | 2.4¢ | $56 | — |
| hirichzhou0x71f7…2e2e | Yes | 1,502 | 4.0¢ | $55 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 43 | 94.6¢ | $41 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| gedx0x6a74…3952 | No | 39 | 96.3¢ | $38 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 1,000 | 3.9¢ | $37 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $37 | — |
| Blueynbingo0x52aa…42a2 | No | 37 | 95.5¢ | $35 | — |
| plymbus0xbbb3…037d | Yes | 880 | 7.4¢ | $32 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 26 | 95.4¢ | $25 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| saragus0xf4d5…66e1 | Yes | 603 | 7.4¢ | $22 | — |
| bahn-cuon-baby0x5cdc…1f6b | No | 21 | 95.8¢ | $20 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $18 | — |
| UN-Sure0x8891…b5fc | No | 18 | 96.6¢ | $17 | — |
| pendulum02060x98d6…51dc | Yes | 355 | 2.6¢ | $13 | — |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 350 | 4.6¢ | $13 | — |
| Fablurou0x3256…830c | Yes | 336 | 1.7¢ | $12 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $11 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 92.3¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 10 | 92.2¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 250 | 8.1¢ | $9 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | Yes | 223 | 4.7¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,848 bets |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | Yes | 204 | 5.9¢ | $7 | — |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 200 | 2.6¢ | $7 | — |
| mcsg0x4d3d…5047 | Yes | 186 | 5.1¢ | $7 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 180 | 1.1¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 170 | 6.1¢ | $6 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 160 | 2.0¢ | $6 | — |
| hkhkhk000x6ba1…df1e | No | 6 | 93.2¢ | $6 | — |
| jargon06060xf61f…1cf3 | Yes | 154 | 2.6¢ | $6 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 143 | 3.8¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| cohorts0xbb5a…1537 | Yes | 135 | 2.6¢ | $5 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 130 | 7.3¢ | $5 | — |
| AspectOfNightmares0x9ed3…bc84 | Yes | 126 | 5.0¢ | $5 | — |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 120 | 2.0¢ | $4 | — |
| cicci0x2816…c473 | Yes | 115 | 5.1¢ | $4 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 100 | 4.0¢ | $4 | — |
| owla0x0517…d513 | Yes | 100 | 4.1¢ | $4 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x9a9b…644f | Yes | 100 | 6.8¢ | $4 | — |
| b3t4t35t0xab18…467d | Yes | 100 | 4.9¢ | $4 | — |
| Faris200000x27bf…319b | Yes | 91 | 5.7¢ | $3 | — |
| mktestmm0x5904…940f | No | 3 | 96.1¢ | $3 | — |
| WanderingPanda0x74ff…be5b | Yes | 76 | 5.9¢ | $3 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 75 | 8.2¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| stapler06190x68ff…ec42 | Yes | 67 | 2.6¢ | $2 | — |
| AnaM0x45a1…d54a | Yes | 48 | 2.2¢ | $2 | — |
| rockat0x699b…0296 | Yes | 42 | 3.7¢ | $2 | — |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | Yes | 24 | 3.9¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 400 shares each side · Show
|
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.