Market · 5 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:08 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 9,051 | 5.1¢ | $733 | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 2,218 bets |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $438 | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $405 | — |
| sebyastiens0xbc62…4f5e | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $405 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $324 | Break-even+$0.76 per $100 · 4,032 bets |
| TweetPulse.Live0xbbdc…5d81 | Yes | 3,950 | 4.0¢ | $320 | — |
| BernandoNaty0xfab3…dee0 | No | 250 | 92.7¢ | $230 | — |
| LuckyMANNN0x59a1…a8d1 | Yes | 2,649 | 2.7¢ | $215 | — |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 2,546 | 3.8¢ | $206 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 2,500 | 4.2¢ | $202 | — |
| plymbus0xbbb3…037d | Yes | 1,872 | 10.0¢ | $152 | — |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 150 | 93.8¢ | $138 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 25,840 bets |
| elonplstweets0x50a8…98ed | Yes | 1,673 | 8.5¢ | $136 | — |
| hirichzhou0x71f7…2e2e | Yes | 1,502 | 4.0¢ | $122 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 1,496 | 7.5¢ | $121 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 1,403 | 4.9¢ | $114 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 7,262 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 120 | 97.7¢ | $110 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,334 bets |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 1,000 | 3.9¢ | $81 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 1,000 | 2.0¢ | $81 | — |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | Yes | 901 | 7.8¢ | $73 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,845 bets |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 530 | 2.4¢ | $43 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | Yes | 500 | 4.0¢ | $41 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $24 | — |
| number250x0660…0ea7 | No | 26 | 91.7¢ | $23 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 289 | 3.8¢ | $23 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Blueynbingo0x52aa…42a2 | No | 22 | 92.7¢ | $20 | — |
| Hiohigs0x4f8d…99c7 | Yes | 244 | 9.9¢ | $20 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 214 | 3.5¢ | $17 | — |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 200 | 9.2¢ | $16 | — |
| 0x4289…3fd7 | No | 17 | 91.9¢ | $16 | — |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $14 | — |
| geylord200x5937…11da | Yes | 154 | 6.8¢ | $12 | New78 settled bets |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | Yes | 134 | 9.2¢ | $11 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | Yes | 119 | 6.2¢ | $10 | — |
| LordLawliet0x102a…df8e | Yes | 108 | 9.7¢ | $9 | — |
| justwant50xbc13…5578 | Yes | 100 | 4.0¢ | $8 | — |
| Demet3r0x40e6…459f | Yes | 100 | 2.0¢ | $8 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 100 | 3.8¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 8,496 bets |
| 0xa775…334e | Yes | 87 | 2.7¢ | $7 | — |
| mcsg0x4d3d…5047 | Yes | 83 | 8.3¢ | $7 | — |
| pendulum02060x98d6…51dc | Yes | 81 | 7.7¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xVeywa0xc622…e1a4 | Yes | 80 | 8.2¢ | $6 | — |
| Balfang0x58b9…e3ca | Yes | 74 | 1.9¢ | $6 | — |
| MarsBABY0xeb6d…2294 | Yes | 71 | 7.9¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xa986…30f6 | Yes | 64 | 7.6¢ | $5 | — |
| Faris200000x27bf…319b | Yes | 63 | 8.3¢ | $5 | — |
| rockat0x699b…0296 | Yes | 62 | 7.4¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xa123…3fd6 | Yes | 62 | 8.6¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x4d5b…acdc | No | 5 | 92.4¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.36 per $100 · 3,118 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 54 | 9.6¢ | $4 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| WanderingPanda0x74ff…be5b | Yes | 53 | 8.9¢ | $4 | — |
| JoyL0x0862…9a02 | Yes | 50 | 8.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 50 | 3.7¢ | $4 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| Arpayon0xd5f0…932c | Yes | 42 | 2.5¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | Yes | 40 | 8.6¢ | $3 | — |
| jargon06060xf61f…1cf3 | Yes | 35 | 9.2¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x546a…1988 | Yes | 15 | 6.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.15 per $100 · 42,787+ bets · updating |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 14 | 5.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x4161…6290 | No | 1 | 92.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.08 per $100 · 527 bets |
| rocky420080x79dc…ca77 | Yes | 5 | 8.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | No | 0 | 90.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 9,353 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 90.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.