Market · 11 of 11 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 15:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $720K in play
Exactly one of this event's 11 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| onekey020xfaf9…f4c4 | No | 18,716 | 99.2¢ | $18.7K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 441 bets |
| Boss70x5409…79db | No | 4,918 | 99.9¢ | $4.92K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 2,190 bets |
| momo-09160x36a9…c1d3 | No | 1,631 | 99.9¢ | $1.63K | — |
| JolyonAshkettle0xa924…0dec | No | 1,515 | 99.9¢ | $1.51K | — |
| 222Sera-phina920x51a2…6dc3 | No | 1,433 | 99.9¢ | $1.43K | — |
| decacepa0x2809…10dc | No | 695 | 92.9¢ | $695 | — |
| yoyoyoyo-0x8fec…d9af | No | 512 | 92.3¢ | $512 | — |
| chopin0x30f8…b824 | No | 105 | 95.4¢ | $105 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 1,360 bets |
| ytrdfewrrt0x6064…f9eb | No | 91 | 99.2¢ | $91 | — |
| 6620xef8e…bbbb | No | 77 | 99.9¢ | $77 | — |
| tuangtang0xb2ca…298c | No | 70 | 99.9¢ | $70 | — |
| whttt0xb694…5e86 | No | 60 | 99.9¢ | $60 | — |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | No | 58 | 94.6¢ | $58 | — |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 55 | 95.0¢ | $55 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 27,486 bets |
| lodfd0xb00f…95e3 | No | 52 | 99.9¢ | $52 | — |
| nnb0x6901…c80e | No | 50 | 99.9¢ | $50 | — |
| huiwas0xc5e0…8eb5 | No | 50 | 99.9¢ | $50 | — |
| ggg.pol0xd90c…398c | No | 50 | 99.9¢ | $50 | — |
| Abdyl0x9505…5110 | No | 50 | 99.7¢ | $50 | — |
| 0xecda…9a9e | No | 50 | 99.9¢ | $50 | — |
| lllqq0xfcfd…8526 | No | 50 | 99.9¢ | $50 | — |
| khjhh0xc714…2eff | No | 42 | 99.9¢ | $42 | — |
| eybhjsy0xa6b5…d7e1 | No | 41 | 99.9¢ | $41 | — |
| fadala0x0730…4b31 | No | 40 | 99.9¢ | $40 | — |
| iliabouchouev0x95dc…4b45 | No | 40 | 99.9¢ | $40 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 16,947 bets |
| hdh650x9b0f…03ba | No | 40 | 99.9¢ | $40 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 40 | 98.4¢ | $40 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 569.btc0xd556…34c5 | No | 35 | 99.9¢ | $35 | — |
| 77rdfugtdghj0xfd0c…e8ec | No | 35 | 99.9¢ | $35 | — |
| 0xb7a7…fb3b | No | 35 | 99.8¢ | $35 | — |
| RTYTY670xff0f…016f | No | 34 | 99.9¢ | $34 | — |
| CampruCali0x0404…4719 | No | 31 | 97.5¢ | $31 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 5,334 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 30 | 97.0¢ | $30 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| 0x9855…ae8a | No | 30 | 99.8¢ | $30 | — |
| 0xa7ea…e4ac | No | 29 | 99.8¢ | $29 | — |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | No | 29 | 86.2¢ | $29 | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| bahn-cuon-baby0x5cdc…1f6b | No | 21 | 97.1¢ | $21 | — |
| mnfbsdsfsh30x4837…6691 | No | 20 | 99.9¢ | $20 | — |
| 897xcx0x075e…0798 | No | 20 | 99.9¢ | $20 | — |
| sydu40x596d…1aad | No | 20 | 99.9¢ | $20 | — |
| yetee0x9855…bf6e | No | 20 | 99.9¢ | $20 | — |
| zx999a0xf0bf…1744 | No | 20 | 99.9¢ | $20 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 17 | 99.2¢ | $17 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| 0xc616…2961 | No | 13 | 99.7¢ | $13 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | No | 12 | 99.5¢ | $12 | — |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 22,048 | 3.5¢ | $11 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| Teleben0x5601…f8c4 | No | 10 | 95.3¢ | $10 | New69 settled bets |
| 0x2bfb…ac8d | No | 10 | 99.7¢ | $10 | — |
| LazyJohnX0x2f85…05ff | No | 10 | 99.0¢ | $10 | — |
| baikong0xe19a…a07f | No | 10 | 95.1¢ | $10 | — |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.1¢ | $5 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 7,310 | 5.5¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 7,054 | 0.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xec35…259d | Yes | 5,919 | 0.5¢ | $3 | — |
| Brotherinchrist0x6be9…3493 | Yes | 5,781 | 1.2¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 2,940 bets |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 5,493 | 1.2¢ | $3 | — |
| ChunkyMonky0x8f66…b986 | Yes | 5,183 | 0.2¢ | $3 | — |
| baskey0xbd21…5b8a | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x7500…567f | Yes | 4,738 | 3.7¢ | $2 | Positive+$6.73 per $100 · 1,735 bets |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 4,156 | 1.3¢ | $2 | — |
| b3t4t35t0xab18…467d | Yes | 4,138 | 0.2¢ | $2 | — |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 3,811 | 3.2¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 50.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 3,000 | 3.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| Rizh0x9255…6e3b | Yes | 2,500 | 11.8¢ | $1 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 2,473 | 0.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 1,485 | 2.1¢ | $1 | — |
| AmvuQwele0x65ec…956e | Yes | 1,276 | 1.2¢ | $1 | — |
| MilkTeaa0xd3ce…b432 | Yes | 1,229 | 50.0¢ | $1 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 1,126 | 0.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 1,100 | 1.6¢ | $1 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 1,026 | 8.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.49 per $100 · 315,727+ bets · updating |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,001 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,772 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 876 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,020 bets |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 794 | 2.1¢ | $0 | — |
| JoyL0x0862…9a02 | Yes | 786 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| sjoerdvdmack0xe53d…146c | Yes | 709 | 4.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Ecnanif0x2a79…e2af | Yes | 700 | 3.7¢ | $0 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 669 | 1.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.59 per $100 · 123,775 bets |
| 0x544e…86dc | Yes | 660 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 600 | 1.7¢ | $0 | — |
| redstar19870x9ffa…c8fc | Yes | 538 | 0.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.86 per $100 · 2,922 bets |
| kegeI0xbdca…bada | Yes | 503 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 500 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| 0x0a2f…325a | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 488 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 301 | 3.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 11110x280f…1963 | Yes | 300 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | 300 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | Yes | 287 | 4.5¢ | $0 | — |
| Destim0x9372…b267 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 200 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Cmp-Gamble-Trash0xf37b…4eda | Yes | 200 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| pjkeith0x2201…5674 | Yes | 178 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| akhk12450xca60…310d | Yes | 170 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 163 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$81.10 per $100 · 22,268 bets |
| horse.rider.40x776d…8577 | Yes | 150 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.