Market · 13 of 13 outcomes
ByteDance matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 13:38 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 515 | 91.9¢ | $510 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 5,701 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 160 | 90.4¢ | $159 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,980 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 90 | 91.0¢ | $89 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| qbug0xf939…aded | No | 50 | 90.4¢ | $50 | — |
| 572849100x856a…4ea2 | No | 30 | 92.3¢ | $30 | New19 settled bets |
| 0xda0f…2a19 | No | 20 | 92.8¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xeae7…8e9e | No | 5 | 92.3¢ | $5 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 293 | 15.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 32,781+ bets · updating |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 166 | 10.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 72 | 16.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,471 bets |
| misha-d10x040a…118d | Yes | 50 | 13.0¢ | $0 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 43 | 8.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 40 | 1.2¢ | $0 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 35 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,862+ bets · updating |
| bobrenokli0x8a08…0eec | Yes | 30 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| trader-0eec4a7f0x0eec…e587 | Yes | 28 | 10.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 21 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 20 | 8.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,245 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 20 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,922 bets |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 20 | 10.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 22,947 bets |
| 0x86ca…16be | Yes | 20 | 14.0¢ | $0 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 6 | 12.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.69 per $100 · 3,362 bets |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | Yes | 5 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$513.99 per $100 · 51,400 bets |
| bluesky20xc96a…b834 | No | 0 | 92.0¢ | $0 | — |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 1 | 21.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.12 per $100 · 12,790 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 9.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,733 bets |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| POB10xb431…82ec | Yes | 0 | 17.8¢ | $0 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 0 | 7.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| scalerr0xe50e…45c5 | Yes | 0 | 10.4¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 108 events · $6.11M in play