Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 21:40 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Anthropic, 4 on OpenAI. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | Anthropic | 10,004 | 90.5¢ | $9.2K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 790 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Anthropic | 2,500 | 91.1¢ | $2.3K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| phdcapital0x3b7e…23eb | Anthropic | 2,500 | 79.0¢ | $2.3K | Proven+$6.12 per $100 · 310 bets |
| Cryp0x3883…6bb0 | Anthropic | 1,358 | 88.9¢ | $1.25K | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 624 bets |
| 0x2b67…b814 | OpenAI | 14,649 | 10.5¢ | $1.17K | Proven+$6.28 per $100 · 357 bets |
| End1230x8df7…36c4 | Anthropic | 1,159 | 81.9¢ | $1.07K | Losing−$3.41 per $100 · 650 bets |
| HEBI550xd4cb…ecb7 | Anthropic | 1,000 | 92.0¢ | $920 | — |
| ThanksGivingTurkey10010xbace…3429 | Anthropic | 1,000 | 93.0¢ | $920 | Positive+$1.59 per $100 · 415 bets |
| BerkshireHahaway0x7f29…0760 | Anthropic | 794 | 88.7¢ | $730 | Break-even−$0.09 per $100 · 1,494 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Anthropic | 738 | 70.1¢ | $679 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| 0x9f57…4f12 | Anthropic | 625 | 91.4¢ | $575 | — |
| tywed0xc8e3…6fb0 | Anthropic | 600 | 64.0¢ | $552 | — |
| code.up0x2e2f…6884 | Anthropic | 509 | 90.2¢ | $468 | Losing−$4.67 per $100 · 230 bets |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | Anthropic | 501 | 87.3¢ | $461 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Anthropic | 500 | 86.0¢ | $460 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| rpontici0x34af…bd55 | Anthropic | 461 | 90.2¢ | $424 | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 1,163 bets |
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | Anthropic | 450 | 67.0¢ | $414 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Anthropic | 443 | 68.5¢ | $408 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 22,039 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Anthropic | 439 | 84.0¢ | $404 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| hail-markets0x0734…18df | OpenAI | 3,924 | 9.8¢ | $314 | — |
| 0x0456…c88a | Anthropic | 300 | 90.5¢ | $276 | Proven+$4.70 per $100 · 326 bets |
| 0xf96f…1f5c | Anthropic | 274 | 68.9¢ | $252 | — |
| heiyin0xb6e3…4c92 | Anthropic | 241 | 83.9¢ | $222 | — |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Anthropic | 200 | 91.0¢ | $184 | — |
| TelAvivQuant0x4586…c4be | Anthropic | 167 | 89.1¢ | $154 | — |
| Mikele0x2552…73d2 | OpenAI | 1,920 | 8.1¢ | $154 | — |
| ooops0xcb14…5358 | Anthropic | 150 | 64.3¢ | $138 | Break-even−$0.36 per $100 · 7,272 bets |
| Yomba0xd3fb…57e5 | Anthropic | 125 | 74.8¢ | $115 | Proven+$3.03 per $100 · 860 bets |
| data-sync0x21ad…10d2 | Anthropic | 109 | 92.3¢ | $100 | New43 settled bets |
| ufvogue0x3b4a…6cc2 | OpenAI | 1,111 | 18.6¢ | $89 | — |
| LosealaHarris0xa6c0…d6dc | Anthropic | 79 | 64.4¢ | $72 | — |
| sandcastles0xa0a1…4ecb | Anthropic | 57 | 87.5¢ | $53 | — |
| 0x6581…f013 | OpenAI | 633 | 15.5¢ | $51 | — |
| calm.rabbit0x33db…417a | OpenAI | 608 | 22.8¢ | $49 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Anthropic | 52 | 77.6¢ | $48 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| mrx12050x75ca…9041 | Anthropic | 48 | 84.5¢ | $44 | — |
| cc4160x8242…cb6e | OpenAI | 500 | 8.8¢ | $40 | Proven+$60.62 per $100 · 199 bets |
| 0x911b…a7fe | OpenAI | 476 | 21.7¢ | $38 | — |
| babasirin0xe5d6…4d05 | OpenAI | 476 | 21.7¢ | $38 | — |
| maintao0x730f…7026 | OpenAI | 439 | 9.7¢ | $35 | New85 settled bets |
| 0x0150…6784 | OpenAI | 420 | 20.9¢ | $34 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | OpenAI | 400 | 10.5¢ | $32 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,166 bets |
| Benuser70xf95d…dc93 | Anthropic | 31 | 65.9¢ | $28 | — |
| gama10x965f…50de | Anthropic | 29 | 82.4¢ | $27 | — |
| PYEQUANT0x95a8…1c69 | Anthropic | 28 | 90.4¢ | $26 | — |
| taerv5340x30f9…fbfc | OpenAI | 288 | 23.1¢ | $23 | Proven+$32.96 per $100 · 2,276 bets |
| Qwertie0x3759…3911 | OpenAI | 250 | 16.2¢ | $20 | New61 settled bets |
| sharingan-kakashi0x1c70…4c51 | Anthropic | 20 | 67.9¢ | $18 | Proven+$5.84 per $100 · 723 bets |
| WinnieTheXi0x0x3936…8f21 | Anthropic | 19 | 80.7¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 2,381 bets |
| paprikc0x909b…4e60 | OpenAI | 200 | 10.4¢ | $16 | — |
| NeevS0x30b2…1a36 | Anthropic | 16 | 91.0¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 755 bets |
| paula0xa0xed86…6ee1 | OpenAI | 182 | 17.1¢ | $15 | New94 settled bets |
| jovidalao0x95a0…dfdf | OpenAI | 172 | 20.6¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xb75c…578f | Anthropic | 13 | 75.7¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x8c55…c04b | Anthropic | 12 | 82.6¢ | $11 | — |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | OpenAI | 130 | 7.1¢ | $10 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| postmeta0x2987…8512 | Anthropic | 10 | 93.3¢ | $9 | Proven+$2.18 per $100 · 792 bets |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | OpenAI | 100 | 9.3¢ | $8 | Losing−$5.94 per $100 · 8,489 bets |
| PMRA0x225c…6a39 | OpenAI | 100 | 10.0¢ | $8 | — |
| ammarb0x5efe…5f55 | OpenAI | 100 | 38.9¢ | $8 | New44 settled bets |
| olivas0x37a0…ec34 | Anthropic | 8 | 84.4¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.30 per $100 · 778 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Anthropic | 8 | 74.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| HorribleWork0x7804…7025 | OpenAI | 88 | 19.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$1.90 per $100 · 1,375 bets |
| MrBusik0x9f41…f8bf | Anthropic | 7 | 71.8¢ | $6 | — |
| moonrise-clump0x48c4…19e5 | Anthropic | 7 | 75.7¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x55cc…8c91 | Anthropic | 6 | 80.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 105 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | OpenAI | 69 | 9.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0xca08…c267 | Anthropic | 6 | 89.3¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x0b07…757b | Anthropic | 5 | 92.3¢ | $5 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | OpenAI | 59 | 8.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,298 bets |
| kartik0x0x67e9…7827 | Anthropic | 5 | 71.0¢ | $5 | — |
| xgera0x1128…4c92 | OpenAI | 56 | 9.3¢ | $4 | — |
| Telluxion0x204b…6a5c | OpenAI | 52 | 16.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$15.06 per $100 · 170 bets |
| Btwang6660x0cd0…0e01 | OpenAI | 50 | 5.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$8.45 per $100 · 730 bets |
| SomeoneLosingMoney0x9268…b85c | OpenAI | 48 | 17.0¢ | $4 | — |
| RoyalL0x1e5e…7015 | Anthropic | 3 | 89.4¢ | $3 | — |
| Rain-Prob-010x57f5…c1c9 | OpenAI | 33 | 0.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xafc0…34b2 | Anthropic | 2 | 92.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x6125…7771 | Anthropic | 2 | 66.9¢ | $1 | — |
| kojuhrt56t0xbabd…cdce | OpenAI | 16 | 24.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x7761…af5f | OpenAI | 14 | 22.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4aea…b7dd | OpenAI | 8 | 12.5¢ | $1 | — |
| ebobc0x35e4…5bbc | OpenAI | 6 | 18.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.67 per $100 · 724 bets |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | OpenAI | 6 | 24.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 2,068 bets |
| Leon.X0x3037…8b5a | OpenAI | 5 | 21.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | OpenAI | 5 | 21.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Collision390xb17a…0f66 | OpenAI | 5 | 21.0¢ | $0 | — |
| whatskyle0xe183…b5cc | OpenAI | 5 | 21.7¢ | $0 | — |
| periculophobic0x260b…aa9e | OpenAI | 5 | 35.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$62.73 per $100 · 1,407 bets |
| leastexpectedbanana0x1aae…a07c | OpenAI | 5 | 22.7¢ | $0 | — |
| vpvp260x5da8…e7dd | OpenAI | 4 | 25.8¢ | $0 | — |
| tuskor0x2a5b…8e74 | OpenAI | 3 | 35.9¢ | $0 | Losing−$5.11 per $100 · 189 bets |
| 0xe3ae…217a | OpenAI | 3 | 11.0¢ | $0 | — |
| sportkingzer0x0637…1e31 | OpenAI | 2 | 21.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 1,568 bets |
| thepolwinner0x3078…0389 | OpenAI | 1 | 19.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 30,956 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | OpenAI | 1 | 9.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| devin.lawson.770x94d6…9ab8 | OpenAI | 1 | 9.2¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420070x6b17…03b2 | OpenAI | 1 | 18.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 79fsdfs0x2564…f258 | OpenAI | 0 | 12.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$3.85 per $100 · 2,461 bets |
| 9AI90xb0c8…7d91 | OpenAI | 0 | 11.8¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Anthropic minus OpenAI for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 102 events · $6.08M in play