Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:44 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Anthropic + OpenAI , 2 on Microsoft. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdac4…a8c9 | Microsoft | 2,728 | 39.0¢ | $2.01K | — |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 3,000 | 69.0¢ | $795 | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| vimtodcs0x54fd…4ac3 | Microsoft | 460 | 58.6¢ | $338 | Proven+$6.19 per $100 · 907 bets |
| Red781RuM0x04bf…7caf | Microsoft | 200 | 61.0¢ | $147 | Proven+$4.82 per $100 · 1,031 bets |
| 0xfa2e…162c | Microsoft | 200 | 31.9¢ | $147 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Microsoft | 152 | 49.3¢ | $111 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 0x36c9…3039 | Microsoft | 90 | 53.0¢ | $66 | — |
| Wachufleiba880xa255…2ffc | Anthropic + OpenAI | 249 | 45.5¢ | $66 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Microsoft | 87 | 70.9¢ | $64 | Losing−$2.58 per $100 · 123,998 bets |
| fart120xd934…8caa | Anthropic + OpenAI | 202 | 50.4¢ | $54 | — |
| memorymaker20490x9259…c2d3 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 173 | 58.7¢ | $46 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Microsoft | 54 | 48.0¢ | $40 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Microsoft | 52 | 70.0¢ | $38 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 22,038 bets |
| SKYSKY6688110x2137…7dda | Anthropic + OpenAI | 100 | 30.8¢ | $27 | — |
| Krasav4ik0x9e36…1f39 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 68 | 45.0¢ | $18 | — |
| 0x2712…eb71 | Microsoft | 24 | 36.0¢ | $18 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Anthropic + OpenAI | 60 | 18.4¢ | $16 | — |
| calm.rabbit0x33db…417a | Microsoft | 22 | 34.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 50 | 42.0¢ | $13 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,027 bets |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 50 | 16.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| leantiger0xa1b1…6a83 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 50 | 43.0¢ | $13 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Microsoft | 18 | 55.0¢ | $13 | — |
| 0xd385…dd8a | Anthropic + OpenAI | 45 | 50.0¢ | $12 | — |
| BenjaminNetanyahooo0x2deb…9e9a | Microsoft | 10 | 62.0¢ | $7 | New73 settled bets |
| rpontici0x34af…bd55 | Microsoft | 5 | 25.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 1,163 bets |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 12 | 14.0¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| 0xadbf…4549 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 12 | 64.9¢ | $3 | — |
| LonelyScissors0x460b…9894 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 10 | 22.0¢ | $3 | — |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | Anthropic + OpenAI | 5 | 47.0¢ | $1 | — |
| miniak0x7365…61b0 | Microsoft | 2 | 63.9¢ | $1 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 4 | 43.5¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| siddharthjain0x544b…62be | Anthropic + OpenAI | 4 | 51.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 433 bets |
| jensond0xa9b7…f43c | Anthropic + OpenAI | 3 | 36.0¢ | $1 | — |
| meow-1230x0739…aba8 | Microsoft | 1 | 40.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | Microsoft | 1 | 37.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.02 per $100 · 1,714 bets |
| 0xb294…a90c | Anthropic + OpenAI | 2 | 55.0¢ | $0 | — |
| mndwjfpprw0x6622…0f4b | Anthropic + OpenAI | 2 | 58.0¢ | $0 | — |
| soisson-yan0xdbc2…e164 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 2 | 58.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Microsoft | 0 | 28.8¢ | $0 | — |
| 48xsds0x0446…cc69 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 1 | 59.0¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Anthropic + OpenAI | 0 | 45.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| supermeow0xde0f…a4e7 | Microsoft | 0 | 40.8¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Anthropic + OpenAI minus Microsoft for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.06M in play