Market
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:42 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Anthropic + OpenAI , 1 on Microsoft. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xdac4…a8c9 | Microsoft | 2,728 | 39.0¢ | $2.01K | — |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Anthropic + OpenAI | 3,000 | 69.0¢ | $795 | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
Shares = Anthropic + OpenAI minus Microsoft for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Microsoft |
| 460 |
| 58.6¢ |
| $338 |
| — |
| Red781RuM0x04bf…7caf | Microsoft | 200 | 61.0¢ | $147 | Proven+$4.82 per $100 · 1,031 bets |
| 0xfa2e…162c | Microsoft | 200 | 31.9¢ | $147 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Microsoft | 152 | 49.3¢ | $111 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 95 events · $6.03M in play