Market · 8 of 13 outcomes
Amazon matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:03 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 1,089 | 81.3¢ | $1.06K | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 5,701 bets |
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 1,039 | 84.4¢ | $1.01K | Positive+$2.09 per $100 · 3,320 bets |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | No | 390 | 80.3¢ | $378 | Positive+$2.44 per $100 · 5,632 bets |
| SDODNDPD0x3458…b5a7 | No | 122 | 82.6¢ | $118 | Positive+$1.21 per $100 · 3,309 bets |
| 0x61b5…40c6 | No | 41 | 89.4¢ | $40 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 13 | 85.8¢ | $12 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,223 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 357 | 15.8¢ | $11 | Positive+$3.44 per $100 · 14,414 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 350 | 20.2¢ | $11 | Losing−$8.67 per $100 · 13,185 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 324 | 9.2¢ | $10 | Proven+$5.91 per $100 · 7,365 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 295 | 28.3¢ | $9 | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 32,781+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 283 | 10.2¢ | $9 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,320 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 6 | 96.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,997 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 136 | 20.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,922 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 129 | 9.7¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.52 per $100 · 124,781 bets |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | Yes | 119 | 20.3¢ | $4 | — |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Yes | 111 | 18.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 22,053 bets |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 100 | 18.0¢ | $3 | — |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 80 | 12.9¢ | $2 | — |
| lw-mm-lp0xe2ce…aec5 | Yes | 58 | 23.8¢ | $2 | — |
| misha-d10x040a…118d | Yes | 50 | 23.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 46 | 10.5¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.00 per $100 · 51,215 bets |
| LonelyScissors0x460b…9894 | Yes | 45 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 32 | 12.5¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.69 per $100 · 3,362 bets |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 30 | 23.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.36 per $100 · 5,428 bets |
| 0x5f3e…5337 | Yes | 30 | 3.1¢ | $1 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 24 | 26.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.40 per $100 · 88,855+ bets · updating |
| romanew-crypto0xdd3b…9f3a | Yes | 23 | 15.1¢ | $1 | — |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 21 | 40.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.12 per $100 · 12,790 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 21 | 6.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 20 | 17.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,245 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 11 | 18.6¢ | $0 | Proven+$9.08 per $100 · 9,048 bets |
| 102cats0x40f2…a57c | Yes | 6 | 1.7¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 0 | 48.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.96 per $100 · 93,070 bets |
| hokinado0xffee…ea6b | Yes | 0 | 23.0¢ | $0 | — |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | Yes | 0 | 7.9¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 108 events · $6.11M in play