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Topic · Geopolitics
1 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
1.9% of Polymarket
Events · markets
1 · 1
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 81 days
Proven traders lean No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 · 1 of the top 10 books. Proven means 100+ settled bets, more than $2 made per $100 and beating the odds when held.
Yes minus No · across the 1 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $541.4K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 721 bets |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:12 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| winforretire0xa4c3…bbb2 |
| No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 |
| $392.2K |
| New27 bets |
| 0xb9d8…275a | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $381.6K | New21 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $351.5K | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,020 bets |
| llh0x8349…c99d | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $316.2K | New73 bets |
| randomgo0x51df…458f | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $239.2K | New0 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $211.9K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| momom0x3c8a…b45a | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $211.5K | New43 bets |
| allenzzz0xe749…f771 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $191.4K | Proven+$2.10 per $100 · 229 bets |
| sheen070x60c1…f605 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $132.5K | New2 bets |
| onekey020xfaf9…f4c4 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $110.1K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 441 bets |
| Top1-J0xa576…8678 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $92.2K | Break-even−$0.10 per $100 · 606 bets |
| 0x7d5d…91d8 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $82.1K | Positive+$1.83 per $100 · 268 bets |
| chriszyy30x052f…53fb | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $82.1K | Break-even+$0.96 per $100 · 297 bets |
| 0xrc0x4004…c40b | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $81.6K | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 340 bets |
| 0xd8e0…c1a7 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $77.1K | New32 bets |
| po185030x22ff…5254 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $66.3K | New42 bets |
| someone20260xa7ce…6398 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $58.6K | New18 bets |
| freeman1230xb70c…34ca | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $57.5K | Proven+$4.42 per $100 · 732 bets |
| comon1190xc3c3…eec8 | China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $27.5K | Losing−$6.38 per $100 · 5,658 bets |
| 0x396f…f2a8 | China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $13.9K | New2 bets |
| 0xb886…81b3 | China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $13.1K | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| epicsundayfunk0xd8bf…44ea | China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $10.4K | New0 bets |
| 0xf3e9…ec41 | China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $7.9K | New33 bets |
| caspersmc0x9026…d7e4 | China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $6.6K | New0 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.