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Topic · Geopolitics
1 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
1.9% of Polymarket
Events · markets
1 · 1
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | 97.8¢ | up 0.2 points this week | $6.07M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 02:23 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
Yes minus No · across the 1 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $541.4K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 721 bets |
| winforretire0xa4c3…bbb2 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $392.2K | New27 bets |
| 0xb9d8…275a | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $381.6K | New21 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $351.5K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 22,018 bets |
| llh0x8349…c99d | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $316.2K | New73 bets |
| randomgo0x51df…458f | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $239.2K | New0 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $211.9K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| momom0x3c8a…b45a | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $211.5K | New43 bets |
| allenzzz0xe749…f771 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $191.4K | Proven+$2.10 per $100 · 229 bets |
| sheen070x60c1…f605 | No on China invade Taiwan by end of 2026 | $132.5K | New2 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.