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Topic · Geopolitics
4 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.1% of Polymarket
Events · markets
3 · 4
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
4 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Nov 1
in 20 days
Proven traders lean No on October 31 · 4 of the top 10 books. Proven means 100+ settled bets, more than $2 made per $100 and beating the odds when held.
Yes minus No · across the 4 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ko-san-1230x8792…4174 | No on October 31 | $47.1K | Proven+$7.12 per $100 · 818 bets |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 22:20 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| 0x6bab…0fe5 |
| No on December 31 |
| $24.7K |
| Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 371 bets |
| Kevindoto0xcd71…d127 | No on October 31 | $18.6K | Proven+$4.55 per $100 · 728 bets |
| LeftieFTW0x066a…550d | No on December 31 | $17.4K | – |
| spamburglar0x3dce…2e3d | No on October 31 | $17.1K | – |
| yuhyuhyuhy3523520xbd04…fbb0 | No on October 31 | $14.0K | Proven+$13.58 per $100 · 548 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No on December 31 | $11.7K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | No on October 31 | $9.6K | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | No on October 31 | $6.3K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| 0x5039…946d | No on October 31 | $5.6K | Break-even−$0.70 per $100 · 587 bets |
| citra0x246b…1196 | October 31 | $4.4K | Proven+$11.09 per $100 · 247 bets |
| 0xcca9…4c9f | December 31 | $3.3K | Break-even−$0.50 per $100 · 265 bets |
| tumbra0x52ca…523f | No on October 31 | $3.2K | Proven+$8.86 per $100 · 108 bets |
| ZaGambla0x96f7…d6ae | No on October 31 | $2.7K | – |
| 0x0456…c88a | No on October 31 | $2.7K | Proven+$4.70 per $100 · 326 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No on October 31 | $2.7K | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,306 bets |
| M2sx92kljs420xb4f2…e5fa | No on October 31 | $2.6K | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 549 bets |
| ourdemocracy0x08c9…a2ef | No on October 31 | $2.6K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 577 bets |
| KissingGolden0x9dcb…628b | No on December 31 | $2.2K | – |
| zxdfbdfgngcxv0x57b0…76f4 | No on October 31 | $2.2K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,947 bets |
| Myway0x52f9…e1c7 | No on October 31 | $2.1K | Proven+$8.03 per $100 · 313 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | December 31 | $2.0K | Proven+$3.47 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| ZhouSir10x9876…1e66 | No on October 31 | $1.9K | Break-even+$0.01 per $100 · 213 bets |
| 0x2c79…e0aa | No on October 31 | $1.8K | Proven+$2.22 per $100 · 218 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | No on December 31 | $1.8K | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 2,138 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.