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Topic · Geopolitics
4 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.1% of Polymarket
Events · markets
3 · 4
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
4 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Nov 1
in 20 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by...? | December 31 | 17.5¢ | up 1 point this week | $0.27M |
| Will Iran target Bahrain by...? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:32 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| No |
| 69.0¢ |
| up 17 points this week |
| $2.2K |
| What will be said during the third episode of South Park: Season 29? | Iran | 25.5¢ | – | $0 |
Yes minus No · across the 4 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ko-san-1230x8792…4174 | No on October 31 | $47.0K | Proven+$7.12 per $100 · 818 bets |
| 0x6bab…0fe5 | No on December 31 | $25.8K | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 371 bets |
| Kevindoto0xcd71…d127 | No on October 31 | $18.6K | Proven+$4.55 per $100 · 728 bets |
| LeftieFTW0x066a…550d | No on December 31 | $17.3K | – |
| spamburglar0x3dce…2e3d | No on October 31 | $17.1K | – |
| yuhyuhyuhy3523520xbd04…fbb0 | No on October 31 | $13.9K | Proven+$13.58 per $100 · 548 bets |
| denizz0xbaa2…2c73 | No on December 31 | $11.7K | Proven+$8.43 per $100 · 1,271 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | No on October 31 | $9.6K | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| DooBieZ0xdb40…3612 | No on October 31 | $6.3K | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 8,086 bets |
| 0x5039…946d | No on October 31 | $5.6K | Break-even−$0.70 per $100 · 587 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.