Market · 3 of 4 outcomes
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 14, 2026, 08:38 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JRocHWC0x149f…d306 | Yes | 805 | 98.7¢ | $776 | — |
| CryptoPuchok0x64ff…2747 | Yes | 484 | 42.3¢ | $467 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Yes |
| 362 |
| 74.6¢ |
| $349 |
| — |
| WageringGrandma0x096b…bf95 | Yes | 322 | 32.0¢ | $310 | Losing−$1.22 per $100 · 112 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 300 | 39.3¢ | $289 | Losing−$8.69 per $100 · 13,398 bets |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 264 | 40.7¢ | $255 | — |
| 0x233b…1f2c | Yes | 211 | 84.5¢ | $203 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 181 | 42.1¢ | $175 | Losing−$5.10 per $100 · 54,894 bets |
| Basilomo0x86ba…3694 | Yes | 163 | 98.9¢ | $157 | — |
| 0x4025…3644 | Yes | 128 | 32.2¢ | $123 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 61 | 37.9¢ | $59 | Losing−$6.55 per $100 · 14,402 bets |
| kakprotrades0x5dbe…d631 | Yes | 57 | 96.2¢ | $55 | — |
| The-Joker0x9aeb…2729 | No | 1,482 | 62.0¢ | $53 | Proven+$2.88 per $100 · 2,760 bets |
| Flingflonger0xecef…4909 | Yes | 51 | 46.0¢ | $49 | — |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 47 | 61.7¢ | $46 | Losing−$1.12 per $100 · 12,790 bets |
| 0x652b…f5c2 | Yes | 46 | 92.9¢ | $44 | Proven+$9.67 per $100 · 505 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 40 | 39.0¢ | $39 | Losing−$4.37 per $100 · 113,391 bets |
| simulacrum30x2843…b3d2 | Yes | 40 | 52.0¢ | $39 | Losing−$4.37 per $100 · 2,575 bets |
| 0x5a4b…f3b0 | Yes | 40 | 58.0¢ | $39 | — |
| bissy.0x5329…7eb0 | Yes | 35 | 84.5¢ | $34 | — |
| h.h0x3b6e…70fa | Yes | 31 | 36.0¢ | $30 | — |
| ogi2500x3373…3716 | Yes | 27 | 90.9¢ | $26 | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 3,358 bets |
| PlaceHolderName0xc8ea…bf15 | Yes | 23 | 43.9¢ | $22 | — |
| timasigma0xe28e…990f | Yes | 23 | 44.0¢ | $22 | — |
| SmartBoyBilly0x1491…fd70 | Yes | 20 | 71.0¢ | $19 | Losing−$7.47 per $100 · 3,282 bets |
| 0x4e52…7d5f | Yes | 19 | 96.1¢ | $18 | — |
| WunnaWun0xe562…4fa9 | No | 482 | 69.6¢ | $17 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 16 | 39.0¢ | $15 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,377 bets |
| PiMaak0xf7bb…a9f7 | No | 404 | 57.3¢ | $15 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 14 | 41.4¢ | $13 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| kongysniper0xa7a1…e272 | Yes | 7 | 88.4¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 6 | 95.4¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.15 per $100 · 6,740 bets |
| 0xa738…a520 | Yes | 5 | 95.7¢ | $5 | — |
| Mr.Frog🐸0xb1fe…423a | No | 130 | 55.7¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 4 | 41.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.93 per $100 · 66,098 bets |
| petruccci0x9370…9e88 | No | 100 | 49.0¢ | $4 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 4 | 41.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.21 per $100 · 28,079 bets |
| 0x45e6…c078 | No | 90 | 18.3¢ | $3 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 90 | 61.5¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | No | 88 | 12.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | No | 85 | 13.8¢ | $3 | — |
| KimchiCapital0x9578…f066 | No | 82 | 73.4¢ | $3 | — |
| glebbubnoff0x310a…acc8 | Yes | 3 | 68.9¢ | $3 | — |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | No | 78 | 2.0¢ | $3 | — |
| bZk0Uo0x138b…0467 | No | 72 | 2.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.66 per $100 · 1,597 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 61 | 35.2¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 125,579+ bets · updating |
| ForeverAlone690xc31f…f04a | No | 59 | 67.4¢ | $2 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | No | 57 | 5.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.59 per $100 · 14,569 bets |
| Laribobibo0x721a…9295 | Yes | 2 | 40.0¢ | $2 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 50 | 16.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$8.69 per $100 · 128,729 bets |
| Askeladd.0x15d1…ec0f | No | 38 | 61.0¢ | $1 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | No | 28 | 7.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.60 per $100 · 413,349 bets |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | No | 27 | 6.7¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 134,976+ bets · updating |
| 0x607a…4aea | Yes | 1 | 39.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x489a…fff2 | No | 27 | 2.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb16d…4082 | No | 26 | 13.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x3d05…acde | No | 24 | 6.0¢ | $1 | — |
| asfui8j90x9771…605e | No | 20 | 28.0¢ | $1 | — |
| smartpreset0x1680…490d | No | 20 | 76.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.07 per $100 · 986 bets |
| trader-0eec4a7f0x0eec…e587 | No | 19 | 53.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 19 | 58.9¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 23,063 bets |
| RockyBro0x4e4f…a849 | Yes | 1 | 84.5¢ | $1 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 6,492 bets |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 1.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 3,689 bets |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 8,130 bets |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.63 per $100 · 9,314 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | No | 10 | 5.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 29,528 bets |
| kk819ddd0x4b58…dd1a | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 8,063 bets |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.39 per $100 · 9,583 bets |
| asdfdd9180x5d3d…8105 | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.09 per $100 · 12,144 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Proven+$2.65 per $100 · 3,143 bets |
| 67xxabcsdafasdf0x779d…267c | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 11,091 bets |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 10 | 1.6¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| sdafsafd0x8513…6a53 | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| asdfasdf1110xe2e3…5897 | No | 10 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x95e8…81ef | No | 8 | 77.1¢ | $0 | — |
| aaab819d0x901e…58f0 | No | 7 | 4.0¢ | $0 | — |
| flexer780x9422…f273 | No | 5 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x40c7…b1e8 | No | 5 | 1.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$15.49 per $100 · 4,677 bets |
| bjprolo0x46b3…d3de | No | 5 | 1.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$514.17 per $100 · 51,461 bets |
| pinner0xd886…1746 | No | 5 | 16.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x3245…7139 | No | 5 | 59.0¢ | $0 | — |
| chaosj890xf085…02af | No | 3 | 13.5¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 5,508 bets |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | No | 1 | 26.0¢ | $0 | — |
| scalerr0xe50e…45c5 | Yes | 0 | 28.0¢ | $0 | — |
| yo20000x6417…8279 | No | 1 | 80.6¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 49.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 74,490 bets |
| ronaldk0x09e2…29de | Yes | 0 | 84.5¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8bb1…b0c5 | Yes | 0 | 32.3¢ | $0 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 0 | 98.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| kreoooooe0x04ce…c645 | Yes | 0 | 88.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$16.21 per $100 · 142 bets |
| driphop0x2773…045c | Yes | 0 | 36.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 0 shares each side · Show
|
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 113 events · $6.2M in play