25 bps increase

Full rules

As written on Polymarket for “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?”.

1. §1The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range.
2. §2The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
3. §3This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
4. §4If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
5. §5The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
6. §6The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
7. §7This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued.