Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:22 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · October 2026 · 1 event · $4.53M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
10 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erasmus.0xc658…b784 | Yes | 797,095 | 41.2¢ | $132K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 875 bets |
| 0xf559…f462 | No | 97,053 | 52.8¢ | $81K | Losing |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| MysticFind0x7cf9…2798 | Yes | 475,315 | 29.8¢ | $78.4K | Positive+$1.93 per $100 · 119 bets |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | Yes | 297,489 | 24.2¢ | $49.1K | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 771 bets |
| Dreamlawn0xeee1…3e28 | Yes | 269,103 | 41.6¢ | $44.4K | New47 settled bets |
| ratehikes0xa309…4cf2 | Yes | 173,945 | 8.2¢ | $28.7K | New49 settled bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 159,475 | 53.2¢ | $26.3K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | No | 30,031 | 84.0¢ | $25.1K | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | No | 30,000 | 76.7¢ | $25K | Proven+$4.76 per $100 · 2,287 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 27,177 | 61.6¢ | $22.7K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | No | 23,168 | 80.7¢ | $19.3K | Proven+$5.27 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | No | 22,222 | 32.0¢ | $18.6K | Positive+$3.47 per $100 · 887 bets |
| Arbguy0x53e5…6177 | No | 19,265 | 76.0¢ | $16.1K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 1,106 bets |
| TheFOMCGambler0x1693…5d20 | Yes | 83,298 | 17.8¢ | $13.7K | Proven+$16.41 per $100 · 184 bets |
| timetowander0x58b3…653c | No | 15,852 | 84.0¢ | $13.2K | Positive+$3.25 per $100 · 1,493 bets |
| 0x90bf…99eb | Yes | 75,637 | 33.6¢ | $12.5K | Losing−$14.61 per $100 · 861 bets |
| nigiri990xdc41…dd7e | No | 14,350 | 62.5¢ | $12K | Losing−$2.81 per $100 · 31,789 bets |
| jinccc0x703d…00a3 | Yes | 59,305 | 16.7¢ | $9.79K | — |
| Zzzz870x2117…5c26 | No | 11,550 | 69.8¢ | $9.64K | Losing−$3.45 per $100 · 9,492 bets |
| Useerna0x82d9…eaf8 | Yes | 58,393 | 51.2¢ | $9.63K | New20 settled bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 54,537 | 40.3¢ | $9K | Losing−$7.23 per $100 · 15,864 bets |
| WongKimArk0x7bb2…682c | Yes | 50,000 | 48.1¢ | $8.25K | Positive+$3.29 per $100 · 449 bets |
| leoeagle0xd24b…2dfe | Yes | 48,963 | 16.8¢ | $8.08K | New10 settled bets |
| ndb10xfea3…d227 | Yes | 47,965 | 64.2¢ | $7.91K | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 2,383 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | 7,476 | 83.0¢ | $6.24K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| surf0xfd2b…8e50 | No | 6,800 | 79.6¢ | $5.68K | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 972 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 6,182 | 53.2¢ | $5.16K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 30,000 | 20.9¢ | $4.95K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| wayyt0xca81…7c38 | No | 5,885 | 34.1¢ | $4.91K | New73 settled bets |
| TBill10xd52b…5c72 | Yes | 27,521 | 30.4¢ | $4.54K | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 561 bets |
| 0x8c66…44f3 | No | 5,238 | 78.9¢ | $4.37K | Proven+$3.23 per $100 · 143 bets |
| Lenos0xe1b3…76dc | Yes | 25,462 | 20.4¢ | $4.2K | New5 settled bets |
| Monopoly_Money0x7ea7…79ac | No | 5,000 | 52.0¢ | $4.17K | Losing−$4.86 per $100 · 289 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 25,000 | 33.9¢ | $4.12K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 4,454 | 83.3¢ | $3.72K | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| cocobobo0x6122…fc91 | No | 4,000 | 82.7¢ | $3.34K | New48 settled bets |
| 0x5b91…2709 | No | 4,000 | 76.2¢ | $3.34K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 1,151 bets |
| lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35 | Yes | 20,000 | 14.0¢ | $3.3K | New6 settled bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 3,903 | 56.9¢ | $3.26K | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| Seutervoinen0xfaf6…cc47 | Yes | 17,476 | 66.0¢ | $2.88K | Proven+$3.63 per $100 · 488 bets |
| biggy0xa7b3…246a | No | 3,333 | 65.1¢ | $2.78K | Positive+$1.76 per $100 · 333 bets |
| 0xcbab…9a8a | Yes | 16,833 | 29.4¢ | $2.78K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 573 bets |
| 50-Pence0x9478…63f5 | Yes | 15,763 | 15.4¢ | $2.6K | Positive+$13.74 per $100 · 868 bets |
| ChairmanFed0x8369…f584 | No | 3,106 | 79.6¢ | $2.59K | Losing−$23.92 per $100 · 794 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 15,073 | 24.8¢ | $2.49K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,099 bets |
| QMG-MACRO0x4755…4338 | Yes | 15,000 | 20.0¢ | $2.47K | New99 settled bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No | 2,747 | 67.1¢ | $2.29K | Proven+$7.93 per $100 · 516 bets |
| Ditto3210x30c1…9f91 | Yes | 13,889 | 18.7¢ | $2.29K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 632 bets |
| DOLLAR-PRINTER0x661d…4dc6 | Yes | 13,682 | 31.7¢ | $2.26K | Proven+$4.42 per $100 · 12,372 bets |
| hiaurelius0xc386…86d7 | No | 2,700 | 64.3¢ | $2.25K | New4 settled bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 2,697 | 83.4¢ | $2.25K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| OrbitSugarFree0x890d…15ac | No | 2,500 | 84.0¢ | $2.09K | New74 settled bets |
| hippoka0xdd9c…31a0 | Yes | 12,503 | 40.2¢ | $2.06K | New77 settled bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | No | 2,439 | 51.9¢ | $2.04K | Losing−$17.24 per $100 · 7,255 bets |
| thebug440xde7c…c933 | Yes | 12,000 | 16.3¢ | $1.98K | Positive+$24.78 per $100 · 148 bets |
| LBOJ0x5b3a…783e | No | 2,289 | 65.5¢ | $1.91K | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 247 bets |
| pipiyoho0x06ee…5d58 | No | 2,152 | 41.1¢ | $1.8K | New1 settled bet |
| 0xd640…480c | Yes | 10,201 | 16.7¢ | $1.68K | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| Jiang20250x1ca4…f2d4 | Yes | 10,000 | 39.3¢ | $1.65K | Losing−$6.32 per $100 · 159 bets |
| neuroplasticompany0x2458…f8e7 | Yes | 10,000 | 66.1¢ | $1.65K | New43 settled bets |
| biedubudongde0xa822…64e6 | Yes | 9,712 | 41.0¢ | $1.6K | Break-even−$0.04 per $100 · 483 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Yes | 9,622 | 53.0¢ | $1.59K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 21,994 bets |
| ppxtu0xfb57…0a46 | Yes | 9,509 | 17.7¢ | $1.57K | New85 settled bets |
| Logan.0x5109…5e9c | Yes | 9,236 | 0.0¢ | $1.52K | Proven+$6.53 per $100 · 2,293 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | No | 1,785 | 84.0¢ | $1.49K | Positive+$3.68 per $100 · 14,155 bets |
| charlatta0xb7b8…db31 | Yes | 8,900 | 51.0¢ | $1.47K | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 305 bets |
| randomlypunting0xaec3…22df | Yes | 8,896 | 61.0¢ | $1.47K | Losing−$5.00 per $100 · 1,379 bets |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | Yes | 8,667 | 45.3¢ | $1.43K | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 2,966 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 1,655 | 72.9¢ | $1.38K | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 8,169 | 32.9¢ | $1.35K | Losing−$5.17 per $100 · 30,004+ bets · updating |
| 0x2a5f…6c92 | Yes | 7,778 | 45.5¢ | $1.28K | Losing−$3.02 per $100 · 114 bets |
| Pol.10xd3a7…3362 | No | 1,500 | 84.0¢ | $1.25K | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 301 bets |
| ZeZeZe0xe97c…2a99 | No | 1,498 | 83.7¢ | $1.25K | Proven+$13.80 per $100 · 131 bets |
| Debosnys0x7e30…1e50 | No | 1,473 | 83.0¢ | $1.23K | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 3,054 bets |
| Javier777Milei0x2e61…19bd | No | 1,400 | 32.0¢ | $1.17K | Positive+$1.85 per $100 · 844 bets |
| 0xc482…e6a2 | No | 1,389 | 37.2¢ | $1.16K | New19 settled bets |
| kukubaja0xa0c3…5b9a | Yes | 7,000 | 41.0¢ | $1.16K | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 1,092 bets |
| JabamiYumekosRBQ0x93bd…bbc5 | No | 1,380 | 72.4¢ | $1.15K | Break-even+$0.95 per $100 · 1,331 bets |
| metamask21400xc3b1…9792 | No | 1,363 | 56.2¢ | $1.14K | New2 settled bets |
| qfwdsd10x00cb…e987 | Yes | 6,841 | 40.2¢ | $1.13K | Losing−$4.68 per $100 · 2,952 bets |
| pup10x54b5…4b31 | No | 1,347 | 84.0¢ | $1.12K | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 5,554 bets |
| forgetfuldory0xf1e1…6f6f | No | 1,314 | 56.9¢ | $1.1K | New6 settled bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | Yes | 6,587 | 20.0¢ | $1.09K | Positive+$3.55 per $100 · 1,959 bets |
| afaus0x5d5d…6be6 | No | 1,300 | 49.2¢ | $1.09K | Positive+$1.12 per $100 · 567 bets |
| euro-catcher0xc2e5…b3a5 | Yes | 6,438 | 44.1¢ | $1.06K | Losing−$4.50 per $100 · 4,780 bets |
| morganfreeman2280x4cc2…9271 | Yes | 6,112 | 66.1¢ | $1.01K | Losing−$29.44 per $100 · 111 bets |
| 0x729a…c966 | No | 1,200 | 83.0¢ | $1K | Losing−$3.03 per $100 · 513 bets |
| DrNee0xba62…58e9 | No | 1,200 | 83.2¢ | $1K | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 331 bets |
| DanGabriel0x541c…c462 | Yes | 6,000 | 15.5¢ | $990 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 183 bets |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 5,235 | 28.3¢ | $864 | Positive+$6.53 per $100 · 7,295 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 5,000 | 17.0¢ | $825 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| Alhemic0x353d…50f0 | Yes | 1,924 | 33.2¢ | $317 | Proven+$3.41 per $100 · 101 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 6K shares each side · Show
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