50+ bps decrease

Decided by

The amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate changes by versus its level before the Fed's October 2026 meeting.§3

Non-25 level

A change to a level not in the displayed options is rounded up to the nearest 25 and resolves to the relevant bracket.§4

No statement

If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket.§8

Early resolution

The market may resolve as soon as the FOMC's statement for the October meeting with relevant data is issued.§7

12.5 bps example

A cut or increase of 12.5 bps is considered to be 25 bps.§4

Counted

The upper bound of the target federal funds rate range defines the Fed interest rates for the market.§1

Source

The FOMC's statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026, per the official calendar at federalreserve.gov.§5

Closes

Oct 29, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 101.3¢ right now.

• No change 83.5¢
• 25 bps increase 16.5¢
• 25 bps decrease 0.8¢
• 50+ bps increase 0.4¢
• 50+ bps decrease 0.2¢

These 5 outcomes add up to 101.3¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.