Market · 4 of 5 outcomes

50+ bps increase

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 16:54 UTC. Not financial advice.

Market · 4 of 5 outcomes

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Chance of Yes

These 5 outcomes add up to 101.1¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.

None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.

Proven traders, money on each side

7 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.

Top holders after netting each trader's Yes shares against their No shares
Trader	Side	Shares	Bought at	Worth now	Record
pako0x71ed…d338	No	77,739	99.2¢	$77.5K	Proven+$3.00 per $100 · 454 bets
QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd	No	9,252	99.6¢	$9.22K	Positive

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.

Decided by: The change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate versus its level before the Fed's October 2026 meeting.§3
Unlisted level: If the rate changes to a level not in the displayed options, the change is rounded up to the nearest 25 and resolves to the relevant bracket.§4
No statement: If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket.§8
Counted: Basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by.§3
Source: The FOMC's statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 per the official calendar.§5
Closes: Oct 29, 2026 · 03:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 16:54 UTC. Not financial advice.