Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:04 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · October 2026 · 1 event · $4.53M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pako0x71ed…d338 | No | 77,739 | 99.2¢ | $77.5K | Proven+$3.00 per $100 · 454 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | No | 9,252 | 99.6¢ | $9.22K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| QMG-MACRO0x4755…4338 | No | 5,000 | 99.6¢ | $4.98K | New99 settled bets |
| d1k210x71ed…d9eb | No | 2,482 | 98.7¢ | $2.47K | Break-even+$0.67 per $100 · 3,200 bets |
| trumbbb0x234f…0d2b | No | 2,000 | 99.3¢ | $1.99K | — |
| anykey0x0bb8…253e | Yes | 450,000 | 0.4¢ | $1.57K | New9 settled bets |
| worldhappy0x0def…ab31 | No | 1,500 | 99.3¢ | $1.49K | — |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 1,436 | 99.1¢ | $1.43K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| okokok-40x066e…32ff | No | 1,339 | 99.3¢ | $1.33K | — |
| 99999999990xff42…f515 | No | 1,309 | 99.3¢ | $1.3K | — |
| xinyuan0x52ee…2f52 | No | 1,000 | 99.7¢ | $997 | New55 settled bets |
| 3ddddd0x9b0a…43bc | No | 1,000 | 99.3¢ | $997 | — |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | Yes | 279,287 | 8.3¢ | $978 | New55 settled bets |
| 0xd207…9779 | No | 800 | 99.4¢ | $797 | — |
| thebug440xde7c…c933 | Yes | 220,100 | 0.4¢ | $770 | Positive+$24.78 per $100 · 148 bets |
| sS6660x76dd…45bb | Yes | 218,504 | 0.9¢ | $765 | — |
| MysticFind0x7cf9…2798 | Yes | 170,501 | 0.7¢ | $597 | Positive+$1.93 per $100 · 119 bets |
| smartmoney.no.smart.no.money0xa568…12f6 | No | 555 | 99.2¢ | $553 | — |
| MiaoAlpha0x5231…ca59 | No | 501 | 99.7¢ | $499 | New36 settled bets |
| WongKimArk0x7bb2…682c | Yes | 138,036 | 0.9¢ | $483 | Positive+$3.29 per $100 · 449 bets |
| lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35 | Yes | 100,000 | 0.7¢ | $350 | New6 settled bets |
| zlt010x1044…d67a | No | 350 | 97.8¢ | $349 | Losing−$1.85 per $100 · 4,795 bets |
| zizhulin0x478c…a645 | No | 345 | 99.3¢ | $344 | — |
| leoeagle0xd24b…2dfe | Yes | 97,924 | 0.6¢ | $343 | New10 settled bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 97,469 | 0.7¢ | $341 | Proven+$12.11 per $100 · 580 bets |
| VortexBet0x107f…bb8c | No | 300 | 99.0¢ | $299 | Break-even+$0.46 per $100 · 7,947 bets |
| schneider0x45a3…12f0 | No | 300 | 99.3¢ | $299 | — |
| edyjohns0x6eb4…f15e | Yes | 81,468 | 1.2¢ | $285 | — |
| 0x43cb…84df | No | 260 | 99.6¢ | $259 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| coolgirl0xe1a9…5a54 | No | 222 | 99.4¢ | $221 | — |
| 0x1b99…4fa2 | Yes | 60,000 | 0.7¢ | $210 | — |
| PotatoKotato0xa7cc…644e | Yes | 60,000 | 0.8¢ | $210 | Positive+$1.26 per $100 · 275 bets |
| SoMuchSun0x1ea5…fd88 | Yes | 58,281 | 0.5¢ | $204 | — |
| 50-Pence0x9478…63f5 | Yes | 57,000 | 4.1¢ | $200 | Positive+$13.74 per $100 · 868 bets |
| polmarke1950x2dc0…3df6 | No | 200 | 99.1¢ | $199 | — |
| foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991 | Yes | 54,548 | 5.0¢ | $191 | Proven+$5.00 per $100 · 149 bets |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | Yes | 48,974 | 4.3¢ | $171 | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40 | Yes | 41,200 | 0.9¢ | $144 | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 6,321 bets |
| yurercj5hgd0x486b…0772 | No | 141 | 99.6¢ | $140 | — |
| jsnlhm0x0ca7…0c31 | No | 140 | 99.6¢ | $140 | — |
| cbcfhrd450x3d8f…b5d7 | No | 131 | 99.5¢ | $130 | — |
| nextgenbet0x06ed…0aa5 | No | 128 | 99.5¢ | $127 | — |
| 0x0a1c…a8ea | No | 125 | 99.1¢ | $125 | — |
| 0x3140…f550 | No | 125 | 99.1¢ | $125 | — |
| 0xd090…8e1b | No | 125 | 99.2¢ | $125 | — |
| 0x449e…1d5d | No | 125 | 99.2¢ | $125 | — |
| notwhoyouthink0x37cd…4b21 | No | 123 | 99.5¢ | $123 | — |
| gyhan0x8663…62ec | No | 123 | 99.7¢ | $123 | — |
| 0x54dc…8ad8 | No | 123 | 99.2¢ | $122 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 34,826 | 20.0¢ | $122 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0x6b52…fc15 | No | 122 | 99.1¢ | $122 | — |
| 0xd5b4…68bc | No | 122 | 99.1¢ | $121 | — |
| 0x2f57…5ecd | No | 121 | 99.6¢ | $121 | — |
| 0x1c63…ddbb | No | 121 | 99.6¢ | $121 | — |
| Champions260xf91e…4f48 | Yes | 34,508 | 1.3¢ | $121 | Proven+$6.90 per $100 · 902 bets |
| 0xdf84…4733 | No | 121 | 99.1¢ | $121 | — |
| 0x1f84…23e6 | No | 121 | 99.1¢ | $121 | — |
| 0xf313…b36c | No | 120 | 99.6¢ | $120 | — |
| 0xfbd7…2db2 | No | 120 | 99.6¢ | $119 | — |
| 0x2135…4c3e | No | 119 | 99.2¢ | $119 | — |
| 0xaf02…4233 | No | 119 | 99.2¢ | $119 | — |
| 0x8352…5b17 | No | 119 | 99.6¢ | $119 | — |
| 0x2b1f…8bbb | No | 119 | 99.1¢ | $119 | — |
| 0x0015…c77f | No | 119 | 99.2¢ | $119 | — |
| 0x2f8b…6c1f | No | 119 | 99.1¢ | $118 | — |
| presidento0xf504…9650 | No | 119 | 99.5¢ | $118 | — |
| 0xdcf0…862a | No | 117 | 99.5¢ | $116 | — |
| 0x4b59…f5b4 | No | 116 | 99.6¢ | $116 | — |
| 0x18cb…e0c3 | No | 114 | 99.1¢ | $114 | — |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 31,808 | 4.5¢ | $111 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,099 bets |
| Xavwv0x492f…8144 | Yes | 27,539 | 0.8¢ | $96 | — |
| bigdickprick0x8735…46e5 | Yes | 24,200 | 0.5¢ | $85 | — |
| Tender-Series30xe2fd…9b7c | Yes | 22,510 | 1.1¢ | $79 | — |
| rizgod0xc9dd…9f42 | Yes | 21,000 | 0.9¢ | $74 | — |
| 0xc8cd…7405 | Yes | 20,096 | 1.1¢ | $70 | — |
| jozeslemsek0xd0bf…9f9f | Yes | 20,000 | 0.4¢ | $70 | — |
| forgetfuldory0xf1e1…6f6f | Yes | 17,839 | 1.0¢ | $62 | New6 settled bets |
| Donkov0xbc54…680f | Yes | 17,652 | 0.4¢ | $62 | Proven+$2.18 per $100 · 1,977 bets |
| 0x5d11…018e | Yes | 17,197 | 1.1¢ | $60 | New6 settled bets |
| cardealer1230xae7e…02d2 | Yes | 16,885 | 1.4¢ | $59 | — |
| NotTheSharpestTool0x626e…fa46 | Yes | 14,588 | 0.7¢ | $51 | Proven+$23.81 per $100 · 296 bets |
| 990099u0x568a…c7b9 | Yes | 13,944 | 0.3¢ | $49 | — |
| chetai0x6b6e…5515 | Yes | 13,000 | 0.3¢ | $46 | — |
| xxedxx0xacf9…c19f | Yes | 13,000 | 0.3¢ | $46 | — |
| 88009900xeec0…7eba | Yes | 12,500 | 0.3¢ | $44 | — |
| DivfNa0xa9fe…284b | Yes | 12,000 | 0.8¢ | $42 | — |
| dajihao0x3ec0…55c5 | Yes | 11,500 | 0.3¢ | $40 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 11,000 | 0.8¢ | $39 | Positive+$12.12 per $100 · 3,911 bets |
| daqiceng0x93bb…19e6 | Yes | 11,000 | 0.3¢ | $38 | — |
| longguhao0x7008…aa70 | Yes | 10,500 | 0.4¢ | $37 | — |
| Cashmeowio0x5cf5…7f12 | Yes | 10,277 | 1.0¢ | $36 | — |
| errr330xb49c…a67c | Yes | 10,025 | 0.3¢ | $35 | — |
| YYW0xed85…f876 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.9¢ | $35 | — |
| 0x0b91…ae77 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.8¢ | $35 | Proven+$10.22 per $100 · 659 bets |
| enrico-vasaio0xcc79…1c2a | Yes | 10,000 | 0.7¢ | $35 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,143 bets |
| dgnrt0xdce5…b6a3 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.4¢ | $35 | — |
| ZD-ELO-M30x421f…0f9f | Yes | 9,907 | 0.8¢ | $35 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 9,012 | 20.0¢ | $32 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 191,746 bets |
| 0xbef9…d4cc | Yes | 8,771 | 1.1¢ | $31 | — |
| 0x4779…4dca | Yes | 7,700 | 0.9¢ | $27 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.