Market · 5 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 16:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · October 2026 · 1 event · $4.53M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 17,555 | 99.8¢ | $17.5K | Positive+$3.36 per $100 · 1,955 bets |
| QMG-MACRO0x4755…4338 | No | 5,000 | 99.7¢ | $4.99K | New |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| amango0x3710…2b8d | No | 2,006 | 99.7¢ | $2K | — |
| anykey0x0bb8…253e | Yes | 833,332 | 0.2¢ | $1.25K | New9 settled bets |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | Yes | 756,132 | 0.2¢ | $1.13K | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 771 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 983 | 99.3¢ | $982 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| qingping0x3b7a…03e7 | No | 666 | 99.8¢ | $665 | — |
| GZ1010x6b62…593d | No | 515 | 99.8¢ | $514 | — |
| bigpretty0x7b1d…f96d | No | 400 | 99.8¢ | $399 | — |
| kod.cip0x92ae…0376 | Yes | 250,000 | 0.4¢ | $375 | — |
| hypio0x478e…0514 | No | 350 | 99.8¢ | $349 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 316 | 99.9¢ | $315 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| talkkshow0x3e3a…d379 | No | 257 | 99.8¢ | $257 | — |
| unseenepic0x009f…a365 | No | 253 | 99.8¢ | $253 | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 251 | 97.8¢ | $251 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| Jordi.1230xaa84…b016 | Yes | 166,667 | 0.3¢ | $250 | — |
| tierA0x3927…b50d | No | 250 | 99.8¢ | $250 | — |
| 0x43cb…84df | No | 250 | 99.8¢ | $250 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| c00kieless0x75c5…7a39 | No | 244 | 99.7¢ | $243 | — |
| Ammarko0xdd9c…4ae0 | Yes | 159,671 | 0.3¢ | $240 | — |
| joinmehere0x0d31…f28b | No | 228 | 99.8¢ | $227 | — |
| Betttttttttnn0x6ca9…3f78 | No | 200 | 99.8¢ | $200 | New7 settled bets |
| zmyxbc0x6d83…c0c2 | No | 190 | 99.8¢ | $190 | — |
| erasemeguy0x8060…fcc3 | No | 179 | 99.7¢ | $179 | — |
| czvin0xed8b…3494 | No | 178 | 99.8¢ | $178 | — |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | Yes | 109,287 | 20.0¢ | $164 | New55 settled bets |
| 5xxtuewiogvukhjt26230xa1d6…e727 | Yes | 107,800 | 0.1¢ | $162 | New93 settled bets |
| JoJojO-6900x5f1b…b988 | No | 155 | 99.8¢ | $155 | — |
| WilliamThomasa0x3f2e…d885 | No | 150 | 99.8¢ | $150 | — |
| jsnlhm0x0ca7…0c31 | No | 150 | 99.8¢ | $150 | — |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 97,469 | 0.4¢ | $146 | Proven+$12.11 per $100 · 580 bets |
| zgzzz0xae10…233a | No | 136 | 99.8¢ | $136 | — |
| 0xb1ce…ffb5 | No | 131 | 99.7¢ | $131 | — |
| 0xa380…34bd | No | 129 | 99.7¢ | $129 | — |
| 0x16f0…1a58 | No | 128 | 99.7¢ | $128 | — |
| 0xb473…c81a | No | 128 | 99.7¢ | $128 | — |
| 0x5da1…2340 | No | 128 | 99.7¢ | $128 | — |
| hgfdhfghrt0xa12a…a8b8 | No | 120 | 99.8¢ | $120 | — |
| 0xeca8…a073 | No | 119 | 99.8¢ | $119 | — |
| htrsedwret0x934a…db67 | No | 110 | 99.8¢ | $110 | — |
| 0xc3de…2a46 | No | 110 | 99.7¢ | $110 | — |
| gdgd0x0486…58e5 | No | 107 | 99.9¢ | $107 | — |
| 0x5f5e…58e7 | No | 106 | 99.7¢ | $106 | — |
| 0xbe02…d824 | No | 106 | 99.7¢ | $106 | — |
| kjtybfdr0x7170…c978 | No | 105 | 99.8¢ | $105 | — |
| 0xd765…d4dd | No | 105 | 99.7¢ | $105 | — |
| 0x685e…cde4 | No | 104 | 99.8¢ | $104 | — |
| fvdewf345g0x9daa…b3f1 | No | 103 | 99.8¢ | $103 | — |
| jrtsgdfdf0xae15…73e2 | No | 103 | 99.8¢ | $103 | — |
| emptyBTC0xcb54…8ca9 | No | 103 | 99.8¢ | $102 | — |
| CitadelOfCope0x35ef…1dd4 | No | 101 | 99.1¢ | $101 | — |
| obzuzi0x478d…fbce | No | 100 | 99.7¢ | $100 | — |
| mmmxxs0x2dc3…81d3 | No | 100 | 99.8¢ | $100 | — |
| erytyty0x4a66…936a | No | 100 | 99.8¢ | $100 | — |
| wrewee0x6847…6c06 | No | 100 | 99.8¢ | $100 | — |
| dvfg110xb05c…3a9a | No | 100 | 99.8¢ | $100 | — |
| kmtegeg0xdaea…c3b4 | No | 100 | 99.8¢ | $100 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 44,048 | 20.0¢ | $66 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 191,746 bets |
| 12zzzz30x9189…2bef | Yes | 40,000 | 0.3¢ | $60 | — |
| 50-Pence0x9478…63f5 | Yes | 17,000 | 12.4¢ | $26 | Positive+$13.74 per $100 · 868 bets |
| 0xb0bd…a258 | Yes | 16,667 | 0.3¢ | $25 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 15,358 | 20.0¢ | $23 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| jjfjjmldhz0xf27d…104f | Yes | 12,777 | 0.3¢ | $19 | — |
| jaycz0xaeab…4997 | Yes | 10,250 | 0.3¢ | $15 | — |
| zouzouzou1230x3985…d103 | Yes | 9,303 | 1.1¢ | $14 | — |
| lqbeijing0x50ef…5e6e | Yes | 8,673 | 1.2¢ | $13 | — |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 8,612 | 1.3¢ | $13 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 15,703 bets |
| 0xb78c…a181 | Yes | 7,887 | 0.7¢ | $12 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 7,107 | 8.0¢ | $11 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| Jeesuksenmorsian0x33af…675e | Yes | 6,212 | 0.2¢ | $9 | — |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 5,994 | 0.4¢ | $9 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| 0x5ccf…1188 | Yes | 5,733 | 2.8¢ | $9 | — |
| semi-semi-0xc4f0…e891 | Yes | 5,692 | 0.4¢ | $9 | New20 settled bets |
| EirikL0xb834…7e1d | Yes | 5,263 | 2.0¢ | $8 | — |
| ailas0x6b3c…e1f0 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.3¢ | $8 | — |
| MercurioWisdom0xcc80…64ae | Yes | 5,000 | 0.3¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xd19a…be98 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | $8 | — |
| godblessisrael0xe190…ee44 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | $8 | — |
| Sarobiro0x4646…4271 | Yes | 4,990 | 0.2¢ | $7 | — |
| kingt0x772c…804a | Yes | 4,935 | 1.1¢ | $7 | New64 settled bets |
| 0x6702…ff45 | Yes | 4,740 | 0.3¢ | $7 | — |
| ClariseStarling0070xe55e…e1b8 | Yes | 4,000 | 0.2¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xb4b5…1bd4 | Yes | 3,953 | 0.3¢ | $6 | Losing−$10.78 per $100 · 1,476 bets |
| Strif80x44c1…988f | Yes | 3,667 | 0.3¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 3,344 | 0.3¢ | $5 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 30,060+ bets · updating |
| 0x752d…1642 | Yes | 3,333 | 0.3¢ | $5 | — |
| h2120x980a…eb16 | Yes | 3,333 | 0.3¢ | $5 | — |
| Smellytrader230x6b3a…fcbd | Yes | 3,123 | 1.7¢ | $5 | — |
| namomo7880x0ef9…b95a | Yes | 3,095 | 1.2¢ | $5 | — |
| OrbitSugarFree0x890d…15ac | Yes | 3,000 | 20.7¢ | $4 | New74 settled bets |
| notingoor20xee10…950f | Yes | 2,830 | 0.3¢ | $4 | — |
| HolyMoses70xa4b3…87b8 | Yes | 2,566 | 10.2¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 4,831 bets |
| realquese0x0faa…f0ca | Yes | 2,500 | 0.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x45a7…bfa3 | Yes | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
| LuckyStar40000x49a1…8c8a | Yes | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
| HatoPassive0x839a…d2c4 | Yes | 2,500 | 0.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xcc76…c591 | Yes | 2,500 | 0.4¢ | $4 | — |
| Predict900xfb12…d1b3 | Yes | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 20K shares each side · Show
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