Market · 7 of 15 outcomes
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:45 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | Yes | 27,119 | 0.4¢ | $149 | — |
| 286c660x3c85…b62d | No | 127 | 99.7¢ | $126 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 110 | 99.8¢ | $110 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | Yes | 18,677 | 0.5¢ | $103 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 8,000 | 0.2¢ | $44 | Positive+$42.72 per $100 · 2,781 bets |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 6,963 | 0.7¢ | $38 | Positive+$12.20 per $100 · 3,933 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 6,895 | 2.2¢ | $38 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 22,975 bets |
| qing1230xfff8…9cd6 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.6¢ | $27 | — |
| sawyer27180x3b0e…6348 | Yes | 4,000 | 1.1¢ | $22 | — |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | 3,711 | 1.3¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,730 bets |
| TruongMyLan0x6978…08d8 | Yes | 3,232 | 3.5¢ | $18 | Positive+$6.64 per $100 · 1,269 bets |
| AlexZ70x3896…ece6 | Yes | 3,100 | 0.9¢ | $17 | Positive+$1.89 per $100 · 313 bets |
| AnimalEater0xa445…0286 | Yes | 2,800 | 0.2¢ | $15 | Proven+$58.33 per $100 · 566 bets |
| plygd0xf077…a95c | Yes | 1,889 | 0.7¢ | $10 | — |
| Dynamit30x1626…9992 | Yes | 1,848 | 0.7¢ | $10 | — |
| Stann0xdf7e…6d4d | Yes | 1,667 | 0.3¢ | $9 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 1,366 | 1.0¢ | $8 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| poluser20260x40a7…91c9 | Yes | 1,009 | 1.7¢ | $6 | New13 settled bets |
| 0xe334…b195 | Yes | 919 | 2.4¢ | $5 | — |
| fghyf5560x9298…2e6a | No | 5 | 97.0¢ | $5 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 846 | 3.8¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| aMiMP0xb087…3b07 | Yes | 632 | 1.7¢ | $3 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 605 | 5.5¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.63 per $100 · 123,481+ bets · updating |
| akum40xe393…8364 | Yes | 599 | 0.9¢ | $3 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 550 | 3.8¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,355 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 440 | 1.9¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x659d…a037 | Yes | 405 | 0.9¢ | $2 | — |
| crop?0xe308…309c | Yes | 387 | 2.3¢ | $2 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 347 | 3.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,694 bets |
| ffvgt660x14ae…c273 | No | 2 | 97.4¢ | $2 | — |
| Superbigote0x7460…31e8 | Yes | 312 | 1.0¢ | $2 | — |
| TBill10xd52b…5c72 | Yes | 307 | 2.3¢ | $2 | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 561 bets |
| Wwx0xb37f…fdcf | Yes | 300 | 2.9¢ | $2 | — |
| Dream-come.true0x4e1a…947c | Yes | 300 | 2.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$12.86 per $100 · 255 bets |
| aliiz0xbea0…e19d | Yes | 278 | 1.6¢ | $2 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 257 | 1.1¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| FortunaFelix0x370c…3eb1 | Yes | 250 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| iyarsius0xf4e3…fd1f | Yes | 250 | 0.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| 0xbd1a…5375 | Yes | 238 | 2.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Wojtek0x07d4…8991 | Yes | 211 | 0.5¢ | $1 | Proven+$6.05 per $100 · 2,630 bets |
| OnYesYes0xac29…36c7 | Yes | 206 | 1.1¢ | $1 | New45 settled bets |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 200 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$18.40 per $100 · 368 bets |
| 0x5c74…d223 | Yes | 200 | 0.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xe600…a907 | No | 1 | 99.7¢ | $1 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 197 | 3.7¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xeb68…e362 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x20e4…fa78 | Yes | 167 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 158 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 134 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,477 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 125 | 3.1¢ | $1 | — |
| chaosengine0xc28f…f7ae | Yes | 120 | 1.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 110 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | 107 | 2.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.06 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 101 | 1.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 23,948 bets |
| acal0x250c…2774 | Yes | 100 | 1.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$16.35 per $100 · 11,119 bets |
| 0x8a34…0a4d | Yes | 100 | 1.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 10 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
| graynotebook190xcfff…673d | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 22,277 bets |
| 387918739841890x0d2d…7ff5 | Yes | 4 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 36,281+ bets · updating |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 96.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.04M in play
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.