Market · 11 of 15 outcomes
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:39 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto-Well0x4e39…8cbf | Yes | 56,286 | 0.1¢ | $84 | Positive+$39.16 per $100 · 1,739 bets |
| ytyhfghf54550x5d79…8a19 | No | 12 | 99.9¢ | $12 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 7,100 | 0.3¢ | $11 | Positive+$12.16 per $100 · 3,926 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 6,985 | 2.2¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| tmleafs0x7a85…3c54 | Yes | 6,071 | 0.2¢ | $9 | — |
| OnYesYes0xac29…36c7 | Yes | 5,064 | 0.2¢ | $8 | New45 settled bets |
| AnimalEater0xa445…0286 | Yes | 4,744 | 0.2¢ | $7 | Proven+$58.33 per $100 · 566 bets |
| TruongMyLan0x6978…08d8 | Yes | 3,232 | 3.5¢ | $5 | Positive+$6.58 per $100 · 1,267 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 2,174 | 3.8¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,971 bets |
| SpringlyFawl0xfbed…a665 | Yes | 1,345 | 3.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$10.52 per $100 · 10,908 bets |
| 0xee8a…f0b0 | Yes | 1,338 | 0.2¢ | $2 | — |
| lpgb0x1f5f…50fa | Yes | 1,279 | 3.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Guest2882280x16dd…adf5 | Yes | 1,186 | 1.1¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x9181…64ac | Yes | 1,180 | 0.7¢ | $2 | — |
| acal0x250c…2774 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$16.24 per $100 · 11,101 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,000 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| thene00x58ae…9b9d | Yes | 883 | 0.4¢ | $1 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 880 | 3.9¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 126,571+ bets · updating |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 846 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| madmatpol0x9117…c104 | Yes | 667 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xeb68…e362 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 570 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.68 per $100 · 14,155 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 511 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.85 per $100 · 108,352+ bets · updating |
| forwhat0x5810…8265 | Yes | 500 | 0.2¢ | $1 | — |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 351 | 1.2¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.37 per $100 · 13,129 bets |
| 2kparabellum0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | 300 | 0.6¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 296 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 269 | 3.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.27 per $100 · 29,929+ bets · updating |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 202 | 1.5¢ | $0 | Proven+$4.05 per $100 · 23,888 bets |
| 0x9495…468f | Yes | 197 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.11 per $100 · 12,461 bets |
| 0xf63b…e23d | Yes | 185 | 2.8¢ | $0 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 169 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 100,946 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 159 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,032 bets |
| UbuntuTrading0xc3cd…816c | Yes | 140 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.56 per $100 · 9,359 bets |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 140 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 125 | 3.1¢ | $0 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 113 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.90 per $100 · 12,452 bets |
| 387918739841890x0d2d…7ff5 | Yes | 104 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 30,816+ bets · updating |
| qqqppp-l10x229c…b966 | Yes | 100 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.0x613b…da44 | Yes | 100 | 0.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$63.56 per $100 · 34,653+ bets · updating |
| thecaricature0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | 100 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 70 | 1.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| PollyForge0xc540…f00d | Yes | 69 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 50 | 1.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| plainfolder0x28bf…4a4e | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 29 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | No | 0 | 99.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.47 per $100 · 22,145 bets |
| kunsect770x3880…db44 | Yes | 20 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 11 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.59 per $100 · 87,170 bets |
| babyalgo0x0a3a…e990 | Yes | 10 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| yes-yes-no0xea91…bea2 | Yes | 10 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| cash-machine0x5566…7c29 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | — |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | Yes | 6 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | Yes | 5 | 1.2¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x2b23…b6b2 | Yes | 5 | 3.9¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 91 events · $5.94M in play
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.