Market · 2 of 9 outcomes
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 14, 2026, 11:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SteveTheFish0xe917…9612 | Yes | 3,321 | 22.3¢ | $946 | — |
| Hauchn0xf0ca…66ed | Yes | 2,271 | 20.1¢ | $647 | Positive+$28.32 per $100 · 235 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 251 | 73.8¢ | $179 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 102,953 bets |
| GenaTheBondKilIer0xd632…8afb | Yes | 339 | 0.0¢ | $97 | — |
| robertoo0xadaf…6eb9 | No | 119 | 84.5¢ | $85 | — |
| Machaon0xe3e4…8d04 | Yes | 286 | 22.0¢ | $81 | — |
| 3874110074156118140922178973870xa49b…7054 | Yes | 270 | 18.2¢ | $77 | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 43,926 bets |
| rabbit0070xf2aa…21fb | No | 99 | 65.3¢ | $71 | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 860 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 60 | 61.3¢ | $43 | Proven+$2.00 per $100 · 20,387 bets |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 146 | 45.4¢ | $42 | Positive+$6.86 per $100 · 30,631 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 56 | 61.3¢ | $40 | Losing−$2.49 per $100 · 125,659+ bets · updating |
| dlbbbdbdbdblw0x369a…0b41 | No | 37 | 70.0¢ | $26 | New35 settled bets |
| Trevor-Philips0x45e3…1d9c | Yes | 80 | 22.0¢ | $23 | Proven+$2.01 per $100 · 133 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 67 | 36.9¢ | $19 | Losing−$5.10 per $100 · 54,894 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 24 | 0.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$4.37 per $100 · 113,391 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 59 | 52.3¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.21 per $100 · 28,079 bets |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | No | 20 | 76.0¢ | $14 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 50 | 3.3¢ | $14 | Positive+$5.52 per $100 · 88,519 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 40 | 3.3¢ | $11 | — |
| BoberKurwaYaPerdole0x4618…f25e | No | 15 | 61.2¢ | $11 | — |
| CorArm9990x73be…66ea | Yes | 38 | 16.0¢ | $11 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 30 | 27.4¢ | $9 | Positive+$4.79 per $100 · 111,933 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 21 | 0.0¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.76 per $100 · 88,011+ bets · updating |
| Pitosyflautas0x9f3e…5bc9 | Yes | 20 | 33.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xfec4…cfc8 | Yes | 20 | 0.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 18 | 16.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Mgomulin0xf1aa…cf4b | Yes | 16 | 31.9¢ | $5 | — |
| Dubloon692470x22b6…56cb | No | 2 | 81.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe597…02ca | No | 1 | 48.0¢ | $1 | — |
| bechamel0xd322…8503 | No | 1 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Mojito90xf2cf…464b | No | 0 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xeb68…e362 | No | 0 | 62.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 55.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.12 per $100 · 10,603 bets |
| rubby13370x9c18…f3a2 | Yes | 0 | 43.0¢ | $0 | — |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 0 | 23.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 134,976+ bets · updating |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 71.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 74,490 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 0 | 2.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.78 per $100 · 18,517 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 76.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.70 per $100 · 128,822 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 82.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$6.98 per $100 · 51,555 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 81.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.85 per $100 · 132,080 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Largest-company ranking · Dec 31 · 2 events · $507K in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.