Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:37 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y51500x36e8…2070 | Yes | 9,370 | 72.5¢ | $4.45K | — |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 1,496 | 36.0¢ | $711 | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 |
| No |
| 699 |
| 29.7¢ |
| $367 |
| — |
| Antony820xfd39…9ec8 | No | 500 | 46.1¢ | $263 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 444 | 63.0¢ | $211 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| 0x39aa…583c | Yes | 278 | 65.0¢ | $132 | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 22,696 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 240 | 18.0¢ | $126 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 191 | 38.7¢ | $100 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | No | 163 | 37.0¢ | $86 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | No | 156 | 25.5¢ | $82 | — |
| TheOne7770x2b62…438c | Yes | 158 | 55.0¢ | $75 | Proven+$19.42 per $100 · 1,428 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 127 | 57.8¢ | $60 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | No | 109 | 55.1¢ | $57 | Positive+$3.66 per $100 · 14,608 bets |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 98 | 70.4¢ | $47 | New96 settled bets |
| tocimprotocim0x82d9…988b | No | 66 | 67.0¢ | $35 | — |
| ilovecarrots0x03e1…e180 | No | 60 | 57.0¢ | $32 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 2,068 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 60 | 42.5¢ | $32 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 61 | 64.0¢ | $29 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 60 | 56.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 54 | 61.0¢ | $26 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| PABLOESCOBAR250x6b49…2e46 | No | 48 | 46.4¢ | $25 | Losing−$1.82 per $100 · 615 bets |
| Nicolasro910x671c…e261 | Yes | 52 | 59.0¢ | $25 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 51 | 54.0¢ | $24 | — |
| rodriguezerika0x07e7…9650 | Yes | 29 | 60.0¢ | $14 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 27 | 76.0¢ | $13 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| turas0xe78d…2cba | Yes | 25 | 59.0¢ | $12 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 20 | 62.2¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| SulkingCrypto0xe123…2fc1 | No | 18 | 55.0¢ | $10 | — |
| kitty070xe84f…af9c | Yes | 20 | 37.9¢ | $10 | — |
| Klanto0x98e3…9208 | No | 12 | 47.0¢ | $6 | — |
| winexecutescale0xfe93…8d0e | No | 11 | 48.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x9b65…c884 | Yes | 12 | 79.7¢ | $6 | — |
| asdfasd110x0680…4ba7 | No | 10 | 37.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 6,368 bets |
| asdfsadfddd0x0be6…caa6 | No | 10 | 28.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 7,880 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 32.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 4,881 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 10 | 38.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$2.63 per $100 · 3,025 bets |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 32.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 21.0¢ | $5 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 10 | 31.0¢ | $5 | — |
| M.elena6780xb5d8…af42 | No | 9 | 47.0¢ | $5 | — |
| ufofocus0x42c3…dcd8 | Yes | 9 | 59.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xf5e4…471a | No | 7 | 29.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Paoul19920x3991…3d0f | No | 7 | 46.0¢ | $4 | — |
| ernestosparalesto0xc911…a7ff | No | 7 | 46.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Ortolanus0x47cf…4910 | Yes | 7 | 71.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x6117…ec76 | Yes | 7 | 71.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xa06e…d147 | No | 6 | 71.8¢ | $3 | — |
| sm-020x7a55…9e6b | No | 6 | 30.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x3cd3…c5ae | Yes | 7 | 60.3¢ | $3 | — |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | Yes | 6 | 29.0¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 7,353 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 5 | 38.9¢ | $3 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| brickzflip0xe283…3263 | No | 5 | 31.9¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xa923…aad8 | No | 5 | 29.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Roqume10xc47d…e8e9 | No | 5 | 43.3¢ | $2 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 5 | 55.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 4 | 43.7¢ | $2 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| 0x5059…6d95 | Yes | 3 | 59.0¢ | $2 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 3 | 52.5¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | Yes | 3 | 46.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| 0x29f0…b56f | No | 2 | 48.3¢ | $1 | — |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | No | 2 | 21.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 9,333 bets |
| random-random1230xa1cc…fa62 | Yes | 2 | 60.0¢ | $1 | — |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 1 | 9.3¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 13,173 bets |
| 0x16c7…22cd | No | 1 | 41.9¢ | $0 | — |
| ECH10x5bdf…e240 | No | 0 | 31.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 0 | 68.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | No | 0 | 39.0¢ | $0 | — |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | No | 0 | 42.0¢ | $0 | — |
| POB-T0x41e6…66b7 | No | 0 | 40.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$4.82 per $100 · 8,567 bets |
| gavinfunda0xb924…0803 | No | 0 | 64.0¢ | $0 | — |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 65 shares each side · Show
|
Brazil Runoff · Amazonas Vote Winner · 3 events · $21.5K in play