Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:10 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 8,728 | 40.8¢ | $4.41K | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | Yes | 2,012 | 44.2¢ | $1.02K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 1,076 | 61.6¢ | $533 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,099 bets |
| eqzwe103qwie0x38a5…e97f | No | 1,047 | 49.6¢ | $518 | Proven+$2.78 per $100 · 473 bets |
| efflo-polka0x4dd5…41dc | Yes | 780 | 24.7¢ | $394 | — |
| ganzarolli0xa236…4cbb | Yes | 635 | 32.4¢ | $321 | — |
| 0x0fca…90de | No | 626 | 84.8¢ | $310 | New96 settled bets |
| 0x16c7…22cd | No | 581 | 53.0¢ | $287 | — |
| cosmicsteaks0xf4f8…5bf1 | No | 535 | 69.1¢ | $265 | — |
| Antony820xfd39…9ec8 | Yes | 500 | 33.3¢ | $253 | — |
| Mandalorec0x039b…9b6c | Yes | 458 | 36.1¢ | $231 | — |
| acc420200xeab6…d4c6 | No | 430 | 65.9¢ | $213 | — |
| 0xf5e4…471a | Yes | 386 | 37.0¢ | $195 | — |
| Betoreagan0x2e59…f95d | Yes | 372 | 54.8¢ | $188 | — |
| poroselvagem0x22b0…c0f4 | Yes | 327 | 33.9¢ | $165 | — |
| bigdihhh8880x1583…bdde | No | 310 | 57.0¢ | $153 | Losing−$3.30 per $100 · 5,059 bets |
| WalterWhiteW0xfacc…14f1 | Yes | 302 | 34.9¢ | $152 | — |
| Poivre0x714f…66d5 | Yes | 300 | 15.3¢ | $152 | Positive+$4.99 per $100 · 1,435 bets |
| 0x39aa…583c | Yes | 278 | 40.8¢ | $140 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 22,697 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 272 | 59.1¢ | $135 | — |
| Golfinho100x5453…65ce | Yes | 231 | 32.9¢ | $117 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 321 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 235 | 62.0¢ | $116 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,295 bets |
| burge1460x3187…1df4 | Yes | 228 | 54.0¢ | $115 | Losing−$7.50 per $100 · 508 bets |
| 0x49F2060x49f2…d7b4 | Yes | 204 | 41.0¢ | $103 | Losing−$2.02 per $100 · 1,714 bets |
| 0x14a1…9912 | No | 205 | 56.0¢ | $102 | — |
| bonyohr0x357c…7dfe | Yes | 200 | 43.0¢ | $101 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 178 | 24.2¢ | $90 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| 0xdd3c…a088 | Yes | 164 | 41.1¢ | $83 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | No | 157 | 60.2¢ | $78 | Positive+$1.64 per $100 · 30,002+ bets · updating |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | No | 120 | 58.0¢ | $59 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 116 | 57.1¢ | $58 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,710 bets |
| sunnynotbunny0x4d02…2ad3 | Yes | 113 | 31.0¢ | $57 | — |
| bonalddrunk0x3089…92f6 | No | 91 | 51.7¢ | $45 | Losing−$6.74 per $100 · 930 bets |
| POB-T0x41e6…66b7 | No | 86 | 65.0¢ | $43 | Losing−$4.82 per $100 · 8,567 bets |
| dontasks0x5cc2…2322 | Yes | 79 | 43.0¢ | $40 | — |
| LudwigVonMises0xc432…0fc9 | Yes | 75 | 41.0¢ | $38 | — |
| lucasrh0800x7c4d…7117 | Yes | 63 | 16.7¢ | $32 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 62 | 56.7¢ | $31 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,293 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 62 | 66.0¢ | $30 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 60 | 67.7¢ | $30 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | Yes | 58 | 7.4¢ | $29 | Positive+$5.70 per $100 · 57,378+ bets · updating |
| CT-test0x5ad6…d276 | Yes | 58 | 47.0¢ | $29 | New32 settled bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 55 | 16.1¢ | $28 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 47 | 55.7¢ | $23 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 40 | 82.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| wgoodwin0x64fa…bcf6 | No | 36 | 66.0¢ | $18 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 33 | 52.0¢ | $16 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| albatross-trades0xeb93…6e2e | Yes | 30 | 41.0¢ | $15 | — |
| Ryxon210x3dca…3c13 | No | 26 | 49.0¢ | $13 | Proven+$7.45 per $100 · 578 bets |
| Frankieh0xeede…b29e | Yes | 24 | 43.0¢ | $12 | — |
| rrm17pl0x762f…fb2f | Yes | 20 | 41.4¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 161 bets |
| deborah380xa57c…f40e | No | 20 | 56.0¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x785b…5c65 | Yes | 15 | 34.9¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x9b65…c884 | Yes | 11 | 15.5¢ | $6 | — |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 21.0¢ | $5 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 47.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| adsfasdf1130x0dba…2db9 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.12 per $100 · 7,608 bets |
| ddd333aaa0x1dc1…5f5b | No | 10 | 65.0¢ | $5 | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 4,881 bets |
| bbd113d0x3c7b…6863 | No | 10 | 77.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.31 per $100 · 3,847 bets |
| asdfll10x601f…bb82 | No | 10 | 63.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 7,353 bets |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | No | 10 | 75.0¢ | $5 | — |
| aaadda0xa840…87f7 | No | 10 | 65.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 4,316 bets |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 77.0¢ | $5 | — |
| kk8s118es0xe39f…f224 | No | 10 | 79.0¢ | $5 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 8 | 48.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | Yes | 7 | 47.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$2.63 per $100 · 3,025 bets |
| aqrfnzf6fuwc0x9605…4ad4 | No | 6 | 51.5¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | No | 6 | 69.1¢ | $3 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 6 | 43.0¢ | $3 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,956 bets |
| RobFox710xe004…c415 | Yes | 6 | 55.0¢ | $3 | — |
| dddab110xced1…d7cd | No | 5 | 67.1¢ | $3 | — |
| PedronAz0x9109…4265 | Yes | 5 | 62.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ruslan.merchanskyi0x3af8…d08e | No | 5 | 65.0¢ | $2 | — |
| maniacite0x977d…5d9d | No | 5 | 54.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Roqume10xc47d…e8e9 | Yes | 5 | 44.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 4 | 45.9¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| asdfasdf1110xe2e3…5897 | Yes | 4 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| q81m4wlg55dp0x9c70…eaf8 | No | 4 | 51.5¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xcaf6…505c | Yes | 4 | 54.3¢ | $2 | — |
| arcjuice0x0ef9…8f58 | Yes | 4 | 34.9¢ | $2 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 3 | 46.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| aaab3410x5303…5b7a | Yes | 3 | 17.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.46 per $100 · 9,333 bets |
| 0x7658…1c26 | No | 2 | 51.5¢ | $1 | — |
| random-random1230xa1cc…fa62 | No | 2 | 51.0¢ | $1 | — |
| needleladder0x4462…bfdf | No | 0 | 57.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | Yes | 0 | 49.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | No | 0 | 47.9¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
| JsonStatham0x625b…22cf | Yes | 0 | 43.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.10 per $100 · 9,895 bets |
| frontiertrade0xbcc4…fbde | No | 0 | 58.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 10 shares each side · Show
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Brazil Runoff · Amazonas Vote Winner · 3 events · $21.4K in play