Market
Will Elon post "Iran" or "Iranian" on X this week?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 15:41 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .Menthe0x9a94…d5f9 | Yes | 50 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| rette330x2a66…a177 | Yes | 30 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| TENETENET0x3329…43a6 | Yes | 5 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$874.76 per $100 · 26,465 bets |
| StevieKiwi0xe9f3…c4a6 | Yes | 1 | 22.1¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $720K in play