Market · 13 of 30 outcomes
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin price range · Mar 1–31 · 3 events · $14.3M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 10 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | 103,361 | 87.1¢ | $100K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| notprofitabl0x42d1…dab6 | No | 84,019 | 94.0¢ | $81.2K | New0 settled bets |
| LuckyChole0x8bbe…b9dc | No | 40,200 | 72.5¢ | $38.9K | Losing−$2.14 per $100 · 269 bets |
| Marioy0x66ad…cc4e | No | 22,536 | 70.8¢ | $21.8K | Break-even−$0.03 per $100 · 460 bets |
| LucasMeow0x7f3c…5613 | No | 20,232 | 96.6¢ | $19.6K | Proven+$2.25 per $100 · 208 bets |
| XRPisSH8T0xd0f1…6712 | No | 19,668 | 61.4¢ | $19K | New57 settled bets |
| afdafdafdafdafd0x410a…2643 | No | 19,317 | 86.7¢ | $18.7K | Losing−$2.15 per $100 · 311 bets |
| aleksandmoney0x8f14…1e77 | No | 17,375 | 82.2¢ | $16.8K | Losing−$1.25 per $100 · 2,282 bets |
| justdance0xcc50…4c82 | No | 12,984 | 90.4¢ | $12.6K | Positive+$3.55 per $100 · 30,084+ bets · updating |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 12,141 | 68.7¢ | $11.7K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 21,994 bets |
| bitterfish0x1cd2…7f85 | No | 11,532 | 87.5¢ | $11.2K | Proven+$9.32 per $100 · 595 bets |
| 8280xffec…7a8b | No | 10,556 | 64.3¢ | $10.2K | Losing−$5.58 per $100 · 214 bets |
| timebrotime0x606d…1aaf | No | 10,463 | 87.8¢ | $10.1K | Proven+$3.83 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| W1nner0xf21a…b6e3 | No | 8,796 | 67.6¢ | $8.51K | Losing−$3.23 per $100 · 265 bets |
| oegdatam0x5371…76eb | No | 8,392 | 84.9¢ | $8.11K | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 245 bets |
| 0xf705…3ca7 | No | 7,829 | 95.9¢ | $7.57K | Proven+$6.45 per $100 · 3,348 bets |
| phdcapital0x3b7e…23eb | No | 7,499 | 85.2¢ | $7.25K | Proven+$6.12 per $100 · 310 bets |
| Scoofy-Bubik0x709a…7e39 | No | 5,500 | 93.2¢ | $5.32K | New83 settled bets |
| beraguess0xea79…e4b5 | No | 5,300 | 83.4¢ | $5.13K | Losing−$3.35 per $100 · 202 bets |
| Vietnam70x3ed6…1ba2 | No | 5,000 | 95.3¢ | $4.83K | New0 settled bets |
| 0x74b4…6bea | No | 5,000 | 96.9¢ | $4.83K | Proven+$2.37 per $100 · 411 bets |
| Avamax0xc97b…47e5 | No | 5,000 | 96.9¢ | $4.83K | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 720 bets |
| 0x8e77…c4f3 | No | 5,000 | 82.0¢ | $4.83K | Break-even+$0.52 per $100 · 764 bets |
| yen4u0xf0d5…c665 | No | 4,874 | 80.2¢ | $4.71K | Losing−$5.26 per $100 · 1,977 bets |
| choohkz230x10fb…c66c | No | 4,777 | 66.4¢ | $4.62K | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 1,027 bets |
| coconutsteaksauce0xd04e…41b8 | No | 4,500 | 94.0¢ | $4.35K | Losing−$3.48 per $100 · 350 bets |
| sufferStriver0x5f8e…5dd4 | No | 3,903 | 71.0¢ | $3.77K | New12 settled bets |
| juan10x7d48…c8e5 | No | 3,889 | 70.6¢ | $3.76K | New12 settled bets |
| baojuhua0x7bc7…3976 | No | 3,761 | 63.1¢ | $3.64K | Positive+$1.72 per $100 · 108 bets |
| polyproguy0xdcc9…4534 | No | 3,642 | 96.8¢ | $3.52K | Break-even+$0.49 per $100 · 2,183 bets |
| fishflash0xaa42…0b49 | No | 3,023 | 69.0¢ | $2.92K | New10 settled bets |
| ETHhedge0x9a1f…c925 | No | 3,000 | 62.9¢ | $2.9K | New0 settled bets |
| ggdajiba0x1fa0…0465 | No | 2,687 | 96.5¢ | $2.6K | Break-even−$0.28 per $100 · 127 bets |
| boblove0x6cfe…3232 | No | 2,652 | 93.5¢ | $2.56K | New25 settled bets |
| iraa30xad60…97f4 | No | 2,479 | 95.7¢ | $2.4K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 259 bets |
| Tokor0xa19c…de6b | No | 2,422 | 93.8¢ | $2.34K | Proven+$13.75 per $100 · 1,658 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 2,243 | 77.6¢ | $2.17K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,931 bets |
| 1337hax0x2683…b5bf | No | 2,013 | 65.6¢ | $1.95K | Losing−$3.08 per $100 · 299 bets |
| Red781RuM0x04bf…7caf | No | 2,007 | 71.5¢ | $1.94K | Proven+$4.82 per $100 · 1,031 bets |
| ComTruise0xeee9…7ecb | No | 1,837 | 97.2¢ | $1.78K | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 16,722 bets |
| D7422D98eA0d5b6Dd942a8eEd1d2a61945bFd00x861f…177d | Yes | 52,978 | 36.9¢ | $1.75K | New11 settled bets |
| jcsberger0xadaf…3da0 | No | 1,750 | 96.2¢ | $1.69K | New39 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,730 | 86.2¢ | $1.67K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| Cyclewin0xbc0a…35cd | Yes | 46,934 | 3.3¢ | $1.55K | New0 settled bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 1,500 | 95.0¢ | $1.45K | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| tomorrownow0x88fc…900e | No | 1,500 | 84.8¢ | $1.45K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 121 bets |
| metacharsiu0x63b5…7ec8 | No | 1,397 | 61.0¢ | $1.35K | New66 settled bets |
| pg13130xf53e…2728 | No | 1,282 | 77.9¢ | $1.24K | Proven+$11.65 per $100 · 180 bets |
| FXC0x2d88…d5e8 | No | 1,224 | 71.9¢ | $1.18K | Break-even−$0.29 per $100 · 1,534 bets |
| Gamble.and.bankurpt0x9fd4…325c | No | 1,176 | 85.9¢ | $1.14K | Losing−$4.63 per $100 · 595 bets |
| trkbk20x09c0…305a | No | 1,163 | 94.1¢ | $1.12K | Positive+$1.14 per $100 · 124 bets |
| restart770xe40e…a94d | No | 1,091 | 83.0¢ | $1.05K | Positive+$2.16 per $100 · 1,730 bets |
| eNakeVets0x3f3b…1d77 | Yes | 29,346 | 16.6¢ | $968 | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,563 bets |
| F210x32f6…9538 | Yes | 20,664 | 26.2¢ | $682 | Losing−$6.94 per $100 · 327 bets |
| bobso0x1ee3…53b1 | Yes | 18,676 | 15.3¢ | $616 | New6 settled bets |
| Nik20250x0eda…fff0 | Yes | 17,644 | 16.1¢ | $582 | New10 settled bets |
| BTCG33K0xc1bb…a95d | Yes | 16,120 | 16.6¢ | $532 | New96 settled bets |
| AndreasSchm0x027e…c97f | Yes | 14,678 | 6.0¢ | $484 | Losing−$2.19 per $100 · 441 bets |
| 0x9384…56fe | Yes | 13,612 | 36.6¢ | $449 | New19 settled bets |
| azorekh440xe42e…017b | Yes | 13,553 | 3.6¢ | $447 | New11 settled bets |
| 0x7db9…d477 | Yes | 13,517 | 18.6¢ | $446 | New0 settled bets |
| 0x3c12…7514 | Yes | 11,966 | 30.5¢ | $395 | New9 settled bets |
| Sebaschaps0x9cf8…7f09 | Yes | 11,724 | 14.2¢ | $387 | Losing−$10.62 per $100 · 311 bets |
| srmiiie0xbca5…8727 | Yes | 11,301 | 12.8¢ | $373 | Losing−$55.78 per $100 · 173 bets |
| Raxxoor0xb239…eef2 | Yes | 11,147 | 19.3¢ | $368 | New1 settled bet |
| DarthCarpool0x1852…bc50 | Yes | 10,673 | 19.4¢ | $352 | New7 settled bets |
| wroclawpoznan0xf7a2…ca44 | Yes | 10,199 | 8.2¢ | $337 | New1 settled bet |
| Carpool0x4e61…82ee | Yes | 9,714 | 35.1¢ | $321 | Proven+$2.60 per $100 · 131 bets |
| jorgenjoy0xdd3f…e1ee | Yes | 8,968 | 36.3¢ | $296 | New92 settled bets |
| wglbnwallet0xdfcf…a44c | Yes | 8,899 | 41.9¢ | $294 | New23 settled bets |
| 0x5927…4d98 | Yes | 7,420 | 8.1¢ | $245 | New23 settled bets |
| dores5200x07e2…8636 | Yes | 7,128 | 37.6¢ | $235 | New16 settled bets |
| shortcrypto140xe58c…942a | Yes | 6,816 | 20.4¢ | $225 | New2 settled bets |
| 5899850x8afb…7f1c | Yes | 6,701 | 29.6¢ | $221 | New18 settled bets |
| Drivetim30xe21a…57a9 | Yes | 6,603 | 35.1¢ | $218 | New4 settled bets |
| 0xd775…34b3 | Yes | 5,965 | 16.2¢ | $197 | Losing−$15.02 per $100 · 324 bets |
| R-770x2d62…0a41 | Yes | 5,913 | 4.8¢ | $195 | Losing−$1.66 per $100 · 1,500 bets |
| papayonci0x0e45…ae93 | Yes | 5,273 | 29.9¢ | $174 | Break-even−$0.69 per $100 · 711 bets |
| publicenemies0x6c3a…0d47 | Yes | 4,967 | 30.7¢ | $164 | New53 settled bets |
| sizuki0x466a…444a | Yes | 4,575 | 18.8¢ | $151 | New0 settled bets |
| TheSkillW0x554a…74d2 | Yes | 4,395 | 20.6¢ | $145 | Losing−$10.38 per $100 · 143 bets |
| 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | 4,185 | 29.4¢ | $138 | Positive+$7.37 per $100 · 1,338 bets |
| andrein0x9008…773b | Yes | 3,789 | 28.0¢ | $125 | New45 settled bets |
| 0x7a71…8fce | Yes | 3,747 | 22.1¢ | $124 | New17 settled bets |
| MEANDME0x715c…531b | Yes | 3,179 | 35.6¢ | $105 | New11 settled bets |
| 0x880c…cc6f | Yes | 3,009 | 39.9¢ | $99 | New0 settled bets |
| moonboi1010xddae…8ee2 | Yes | 3,000 | 9.6¢ | $99 | New62 settled bets |
| e10v0xbf90…f89c | Yes | 3,000 | 38.5¢ | $99 | New41 settled bets |
| mkb1230x8b98…537e | Yes | 2,987 | 33.6¢ | $99 | New17 settled bets |
| maybeyesno0x3c67…44a8 | Yes | 2,798 | 42.1¢ | $92 | New7 settled bets |
| roleks0xab6c…88d9 | Yes | 2,702 | 24.3¢ | $89 | New57 settled bets |
| dontshow0x294a…bbba | Yes | 2,700 | 14.0¢ | $89 | Losing−$3.75 per $100 · 389 bets |
| 0xc0e4…e8d7 | Yes | 2,693 | 16.7¢ | $89 | New1 settled bet |
| RobertoRubio0x3c4c…dd95 | Yes | 2,651 | 39.0¢ | $87 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 213 bets |
| Acorran0x990a…7b16 | Yes | 2,450 | 21.5¢ | $81 | New82 settled bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 2,400 | 38.6¢ | $79 | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| Soltan13500xd6cc…4526 | Yes | 2,309 | 25.9¢ | $76 | Losing−$22.95 per $100 · 183 bets |
| 0x2b28…7c0a | Yes | 2,308 | 26.0¢ | $76 | New0 settled bets |
| ArthurGreen0xd5db…3c45 | Yes | 2,265 | 3.1¢ | $75 | Losing−$4.68 per $100 · 1,000 bets |
| Metamah0xbd69…e123 | Yes | 2,157 | 8.3¢ | $71 | New31 settled bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.