Market · 5 of 7 outcomes
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ahourse0x303e…c54a | No | 33 | 99.8¢ | $33 | New31 settled bets |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 13 | 99.6¢ | $13 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| yes-yes-no0xea91…bea2 | No | 10 | 94.5¢ | $10 | — |
| wert40x46f7…ded2 | No | 10 | 99.7¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 8,515 bets |
| GoalieBear0x52e2…1423 | No | 2 | 98.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x96aa…322a | No | 2 | 99.4¢ | $2 | — |
| laile000xe1a8…7d52 | No | 2 | 99.8¢ | $2 | — |
| dca10xfb33…73b3 | No | 2 | 99.8¢ | $2 | — |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | No | 2 | 65.0¢ | $2 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| PorseFE0x2636…86c0 | No | 1 | 99.3¢ | $1 | — |
| Xiagerfin0x5cae…9fa5 | No | 1 | 98.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Zephyrod0x3513…f360 | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 69scx20xdc94…3b20 | No | 1 | 99.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 69dsfs0x624b…56f8 | Yes | 1,982 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 910 bets |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 1,969 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| occasionalAwareness0x8a4c…532b | Yes | 1,602 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 2,447 bets |
| 0xb354…7958 | Yes | 1,373 | 1.4¢ | $1 | — |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | Yes | 1,178 | 1.3¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 13,173 bets |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.38 per $100 · 9,404 bets |
| Kfjdbebjdjdvwnksjfvebks0x5943…0d97 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | New11 settled bets |
| 0xb92b…0a74 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 928 | 14.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.62 per $100 · 87,319 bets |
| FortunaFelix0x370c…3eb1 | Yes | 781 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 733 | 14.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| buzagaza0xfa43…76a5 | Yes | 700 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 600 | 0.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| brickzflip0xe283…3263 | Yes | 568 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 512 | 3.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| greengrok0xd2c4…304c | Yes | 463 | 3.4¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x8099…734d | Yes | 357 | 0.9¢ | $0 | — |
| Ardtysrt010x1fc9…ace5 | Yes | 315 | 0.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.50 per $100 · 6,078 bets |
| korda770xa328…4977 | Yes | 298 | 14.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.82 per $100 · 42,898 bets |
| merod0x8373…f0bc | Yes | 264 | 14.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.70 per $100 · 17,596 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 258 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| noniqque0x8386…c2f2 | Yes | 237 | 0.8¢ | $0 | — |
| pp1550x16fe…1ddc | No | 0 | 99.2¢ | $0 | — |
| god837438940xe040…824f | Yes | 180 | 14.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xC1471e5e80f7c5149f5D29bcf7-07171593452560x75cb…1556 | Yes | 150 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$81.10 per $100 · 22,268 bets |
| BSS370x1e98…6345 | Yes | 116 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.13 per $100 · 15,893 bets |
| asfdt110x7e4c…1cf9 | Yes | 111 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Biver520xec82…6eaa | Yes | 100 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.72 per $100 · 13,010 bets |
| 0x39aa…583c | Yes | 100 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 22,696 bets |
| ma990x6c37…d40f | Yes | 100 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.97 per $100 · 7,458 bets |
| akunai0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | 100 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$7.83 per $100 · 9,510 bets |
| 613b668ef24D3A37417cb5756c5943cae761DA44.0x613b…da44 | Yes | 100 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$57.66 per $100 · 63,695+ bets · updating |
| 0x56a8…eea2 | Yes | 90 | 50.0¢ | $0 | — |
| OmaJane0x5aec…904b | Yes | 83 | 0.0¢ | $0 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 66 | 0.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,355 bets |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | Yes | 63 | 1.5¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| jennylulu20160xa19f…ddc2 | Yes | 62 | 8.3¢ | $0 | — |
| fm140x4b91…982d | Yes | 60 | 0.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 4,018 bets |
| 0xfbd8…4027 | Yes | 60 | 14.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.13 per $100 · 58,633+ bets · updating |
| 0x11b2…6d33 | Yes | 50 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| LesterDiamond0x558f…1a56 | Yes | 50 | 14.3¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.98 per $100 · 23,948 bets |
| HenriIV0x8d85…726f | Yes | 47 | 14.3¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 46 | 5.2¢ | $0 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | No | 0 | 98.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| EdwardLewis0xebc0…fa41 | Yes | 25 | 2.2¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.23 per $100 · 28,021 bets |
| animal.bean0x2a25…8055 | Yes | 25 | 10.6¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 0 | 98.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 22 | 1.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| cash-machine0x5566…7c29 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| gazzadk19810xda59…30db | Yes | 20 | 1.0¢ | $0 | — |
| adeedee0x28e0…2383 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 85pulsematrix0x461c…683a | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
| lavinia-et0x6491…9808 | No | 0 | 99.1¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 10 | 0.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| haruk0980x77da…1d7d | Yes | 10 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 7 | 8.3¢ | $0 | New0 settled bets |
| rocky420140xbb9f…557b | Yes | 1 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 40 shares each side · Show
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Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.04M in play
Exactly one of this event's 7 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.