Market · 1 of 7 outcomes
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 21:44 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xfc50…277b | Yes | 9,530 | 97.3¢ | $8.97K | — |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 4,808 | 92.5¢ | $4.53K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| 0x68a4…fd2f | Yes | 2,748 | 91.5¢ | $2.59K | — |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 1,606 | 94.5¢ | $1.51K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 2,412 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 1,162 | 19.0¢ | $1.09K | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,980 bets |
| nelbal84860x8c44…fcd4 | Yes | 1,063 | 91.5¢ | $1K | Positive+$4.41 per $100 · 128 bets |
| K1ngN0rth0x04ec…580f | Yes | 998 | 89.1¢ | $939 | Proven+$3.32 per $100 · 957 bets |
| delphilo0xca52…0cdf | Yes | 960 | 52.9¢ | $904 | — |
| charlatta0xb7b8…db31 | Yes | 800 | 95.5¢ | $753 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 305 bets |
| yoyobb20180x832b…5c91 | Yes | 673 | 95.0¢ | $634 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,008 bets |
| rhinogiraffe0x7aed…df39 | Yes | 658 | 92.6¢ | $620 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 4,780 bets |
| Shijiebeiii0xbb59…6ca3 | Yes | 557 | 88.7¢ | $525 | — |
| anchorjetpack0xf479…fcc1 | Yes | 499 | 94.9¢ | $470 | — |
| Talophex0xd0db…b117 | Yes | 300 | 93.0¢ | $282 | Proven+$2.05 per $100 · 1,929 bets |
| 0x5b91…2709 | Yes | 289 | 92.1¢ | $272 | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 1,151 bets |
| dollerbill0xf7c1…dd11 | Yes | 277 | 90.4¢ | $260 | — |
| Twei0xecb9…bdd4 | Yes | 260 | 95.8¢ | $245 | — |
| 0x3340…83fb | Yes | 260 | 87.0¢ | $245 | New4 settled bets |
| occasionalAwareness0x8a4c…532b | No | 3,512 | 2.0¢ | $205 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 2,447 bets |
| 0x9dd1…f50c | Yes | 200 | 87.0¢ | $188 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 154 | 69.5¢ | $145 | Proven+$4.00 per $100 · 66,067 bets |
| 3874110074156118140922178973870xa49b…7054 | Yes | 125 | 94.5¢ | $117 | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 43,926 bets |
| groth0x71ab…f015 | Yes | 121 | 92.6¢ | $114 | Proven+$20.88 per $100 · 540 bets |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | No | 1,894 | 2.0¢ | $111 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| 0x39aa…583c | Yes | 100 | 92.8¢ | $94 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 22,697 bets |
| Hyperaster0x8bda…f001 | Yes | 100 | 87.0¢ | $94 | — |
| PrimePenguin0x933c…a8c6 | Yes | 99 | 96.7¢ | $93 | — |
| mlplarper0x2d41…8c3d | Yes | 67 | 96.2¢ | $63 | — |
| jennylulu20160xa19f…ddc2 | Yes | 62 | 8.3¢ | $58 | — |
| potapbroski0x65a3…7e98 | Yes | 61 | 95.2¢ | $58 | — |
| dylankramer0x0823…b085 | Yes | 61 | 95.6¢ | $57 | — |
| abramovich00xf67c…2886 | Yes | 58 | 95.4¢ | $55 | — |
| liverpie0x8f15…5fbd | Yes | 55 | 95.7¢ | $52 | — |
| nagybenjamin0xf8fd…28e0 | Yes | 55 | 91.3¢ | $52 | — |
| BilliH0x9253…b38c | Yes | 54 | 94.8¢ | $51 | — |
| 0x0b3e328455c4059EEb9e3f84b5543F74E24e7E1w0xbcde…8dda | Yes | 52 | 92.7¢ | $49 | — |
| liverpredictor0x28b0…fba8 | Yes | 51 | 95.5¢ | $48 | New20 settled bets |
| vodkaenjoyer0xc233…3d55 | Yes | 50 | 93.0¢ | $47 | — |
| Ondra0x849c…4009 | No | 737 | 5.5¢ | $43 | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 5,303 bets |
| senwuu0x493f…e4ff | Yes | 43 | 94.2¢ | $40 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 41 | 95.8¢ | $39 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,987 bets |
| southfly0x773c…cc98 | Yes | 40 | 89.8¢ | $38 | — |
| NeevS0x30b2…1a36 | Yes | 40 | 96.2¢ | $38 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 755 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 605 | 3.0¢ | $35 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| devin.lawson.770x94d6…9ab8 | Yes | 37 | 86.8¢ | $35 | — |
| m191820xdcd3…5406 | Yes | 36 | 84.2¢ | $34 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 479 | 2.8¢ | $28 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,303 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 25 | 92.2¢ | $24 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| richsmith0xf208…5eef | Yes | 24 | 87.5¢ | $23 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 379 | 4.1¢ | $22 | Losing−$2.51 per $100 · 124,298 bets |
| brexd0xe02a…28ec | Yes | 24 | 86.0¢ | $22 | — |
| 0x1b91…a202 | Yes | 22 | 90.4¢ | $21 | — |
| mark.white0xbc49…d2eb | Yes | 22 | 92.3¢ | $20 | — |
| sand10x34d0…264e | Yes | 20 | 92.4¢ | $19 | — |
| ninasimon0x655e…e0cc | Yes | 20 | 98.0¢ | $19 | Losing−$5.10 per $100 · 236 bets |
| 0xed47…9d90 | No | 286 | 7.3¢ | $17 | — |
| Png199820260x7e0f…708e | Yes | 15 | 96.5¢ | $14 | Losing−$1.22 per $100 · 690 bets |
| globall0x2c11…ef93 | No | 157 | 5.0¢ | $9 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 138 | 3.4¢ | $8 | — |
| Nivoh120xd7f8…b9f6 | No | 105 | 9.8¢ | $6 | — |
| copy.trader0x2f9f…894f | No | 100 | 8.3¢ | $6 | — |
| fm140x4b91…982d | No | 100 | 4.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 4,018 bets |
| 0x7b90…fcfa | No | 100 | 6.0¢ | $6 | — |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | No | 74 | 22.5¢ | $4 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| OmaJane0x5aec…904b | No | 63 | 35.8¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x9480…f463 | No | 63 | 8.3¢ | $4 | — |
| daroghi0xf0b0…8cab | No | 60 | 31.5¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.81 per $100 · 69,025+ bets · updating |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | No | 40 | 4.0¢ | $2 | — |
| BrazenBanana0x5c42…257b | No | 32 | 8.8¢ | $2 | New48 settled bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 30 | 4.2¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| shine0xe4cf…78c4 | Yes | 2 | 16.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | No | 24 | 8.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| 0x8f34…2f50 | No | 23 | 17.0¢ | $1 | — |
| TerranSupremacy0x4916…f56f | No | 22 | 33.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$4.59 per $100 · 8,855 bets |
| mehanizator0xaaf7…2e27 | No | 22 | 10.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$3.84 per $100 · 8,686 bets |
| vger70x3a90…a100 | No | 20 | 5.0¢ | $1 | — |
| hesure0xbe0e…d429 | No | 20 | 5.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xd38f…bf78 | No | 20 | 3.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x05ab…1990 | No | 18 | 11.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x4f89…74a3 | No | 15 | 33.0¢ | $1 | — |
| AdamR80x44f0…a511 | No | 15 | 7.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ngok9960xe1a9…339e | No | 15 | 13.5¢ | $1 | — |
| tiki.taco0x9225…1d5a | No | 14 | 28.5¢ | $1 | — |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 12 | 13.9¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0x9dae…b9d2 | No | 10 | 5.0¢ | $1 | — |
| jjeeesusssus0x59fe…14fd | No | 5 | 20.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 20,907 bets |
| Garfield470xedb2…0778 | No | 5 | 21.0¢ | $0 | — |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 5 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ajuma0x4bd5…e0d5 | No | 4 | 24.0¢ | $0 | — |
| paspor0x3dd2…9ab1 | No | 3 | 22.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.71 per $100 · 50,296 bets |
| 0xe3ae…217a | No | 2 | 58.0¢ | $0 | — |
| R18helloworld0xce31…19c4 | No | 2 | 27.0¢ | $0 | — |
| korda770xa328…4977 | No | 1 | 4.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.73 per $100 · 43,120 bets |
| ox4569DDCfDdE68a9A5ee49CD12b6620A141CEec910x4569…ec91 | No | 0 | 9.3¢ | $0 | New67 settled bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 0 | 35.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| 69dsfs0x624b…56f8 | No | 0 | 8.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.03 per $100 · 910 bets |
| pd.unique0x27ab…e521 | No | 0 | 12.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 30,847 bets |
| Gausslois0xb6b4…6709 | No | 0 | 17.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JordanMooney0x5136…0e4f | No | 0 | 7.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 13,173 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 102 events · $6.08M in play
Exactly one of this event's 7 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.