Market · 2 of 15 outcomes
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 04:17 UTC. Not financial advice.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 104 events · $6.09M in play
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
6 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 19,145 | 38.0¢ | $11.2K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,398 bets |
| 0x848282837738290xe38e…50c8 | Yes | 14,874 | 60.7¢ | $6.17K | — |
| mewmew10xe95e…61f2 | Yes | 9,644 | 65.2¢ | $4K | Losing−$1.03 per $100 · 1,290 bets |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | No | 6,000 | 53.0¢ | $3.51K | Proven+$12.04 per $100 · 581 bets |
| dfsahg10xbf87…011b | Yes | 8,018 | 54.0¢ | $3.33K | — |
| 0xc6f8…8efb | Yes | 6,925 | 58.0¢ | $2.87K | — |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | No | 4,880 | 39.2¢ | $2.86K | Break-even−$0.46 per $100 · 1,154 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | Yes | 6,500 | 77.1¢ | $2.7K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| Ditto3210x30c1…9f91 | Yes | 6,410 | 78.7¢ | $2.66K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 632 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | No | 4,523 | 42.6¢ | $2.65K | Losing−$4.36 per $100 · 1,449 bets |
| 0xa5d8…ff3a | Yes | 5,000 | 54.0¢ | $2.08K | — |
| bmtr0x7d1b…e75c | Yes | 4,709 | 55.6¢ | $1.95K | — |
| Contentious-Dinnerdate0x7365…64da | Yes | 4,579 | 65.1¢ | $1.9K | Proven+$13.02 per $100 · 1,204 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 3,984 | 47.6¢ | $1.65K | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 22,975 bets |
| aliaspopeye0x8713…196b | Yes | 3,940 | 50.1¢ | $1.64K | — |
| Rumpelstiltskin0xfb1b…a11d | No | 2,494 | 50.5¢ | $1.46K | — |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 3,462 | 59.7¢ | $1.44K | — |
| EvanCross0x6d38…382c | Yes | 3,275 | 67.5¢ | $1.36K | Losing−$9.25 per $100 · 150 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 3,066 | 57.2¢ | $1.27K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| horatio0x7dd0…2b4b | No | 2,117 | 35.2¢ | $1.24K | Positive+$1.57 per $100 · 1,333 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 1,978 | 48.2¢ | $1.16K | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 2,601 | 3.8¢ | $1.08K | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,932 bets |
| kezgod0x2cfd…01ff | No | 1,793 | 56.8¢ | $1.05K | — |
| 0x241F...e15a0x241f…e15a | Yes | 2,250 | 72.3¢ | $934 | Break-even+$0.63 per $100 · 353 bets |
| zee36170x37d1…6caa | Yes | 2,200 | 55.6¢ | $913 | — |
| Ru3860x1d60…453d | Yes | 2,042 | 64.6¢ | $847 | Losing−$2.20 per $100 · 6,655 bets |
| Hdbeh6550xbcfe…ee58 | Yes | 1,908 | 63.6¢ | $792 | — |
| bartholomew310x56e3…81cc | Yes | 1,824 | 56.0¢ | $757 | Proven+$2.68 per $100 · 143 bets |
| wwon0x4fbc…0e57 | Yes | 1,820 | 58.6¢ | $755 | New91 settled bets |
| doeyej20x2355…05d1 | Yes | 1,505 | 70.4¢ | $625 | Losing−$4.19 per $100 · 510 bets |
| 0x473f…06db | Yes | 1,449 | 70.2¢ | $601 | — |
| kotyashmisha0x1c82…75c1 | Yes | 1,274 | 56.5¢ | $529 | New84 settled bets |
| 0xdb3c…833e | Yes | 1,222 | 65.4¢ | $507 | — |
| wong220xba33…def2 | Yes | 1,200 | 58.1¢ | $498 | — |
| ThanksGivingTurkey10010xbace…3429 | Yes | 1,186 | 77.7¢ | $492 | Positive+$1.59 per $100 · 415 bets |
| 0xe1be…c3f6 | Yes | 1,173 | 69.0¢ | $487 | — |
| pink110x97d1…18ef | Yes | 1,165 | 71.3¢ | $483 | New67 settled bets |
| 0x3564…5cff | Yes | 1,161 | 66.0¢ | $482 | New64 settled bets |
| nicknigelloki0x1a0f…53a2 | Yes | 1,100 | 62.9¢ | $457 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 770 | 40.4¢ | $451 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,075 bets |
| code.up0x2e2f…6884 | Yes | 1,076 | 74.0¢ | $446 | Losing−$4.67 per $100 · 230 bets |
| 0x877e…5f22 | Yes | 1,072 | 66.2¢ | $445 | — |
| ronaldk0x09e2…29de | Yes | 1,066 | 66.6¢ | $442 | — |
| MWM0x3b37…6962 | Yes | 1,021 | 69.4¢ | $424 | Losing−$9.08 per $100 · 199 bets |
| doil0xf294…7967 | Yes | 1,017 | 56.2¢ | $422 | — |
| ptaszek0x5cf6…6ade | Yes | 1,000 | 52.0¢ | $415 | Break-even+$0.67 per $100 · 444 bets |
| Red781RuM0x04bf…7caf | Yes | 1,000 | 63.0¢ | $415 | Proven+$4.82 per $100 · 1,031 bets |
| vtx0x6718…e623 | Yes | 997 | 65.4¢ | $414 | Proven+$11.91 per $100 · 142 bets |
| 1nvoker10x748a…3c56 | Yes | 960 | 53.9¢ | $398 | Break-even+$0.58 per $100 · 931 bets |
| lisa670x5768…08fd | Yes | 948 | 58.3¢ | $393 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 158 bets |
| grizzlyf0x18eb…5dbc | Yes | 923 | 54.0¢ | $383 | — |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | Yes | 800 | 78.0¢ | $332 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | Yes | 797 | 75.0¢ | $331 | Losing−$1.76 per $100 · 325 bets |
| zk19840x0049…6034 | No | 548 | 32.2¢ | $320 | Proven+$4.64 per $100 · 604 bets |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | No | 513 | 32.0¢ | $300 | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | No | 498 | 44.3¢ | $291 | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 32,781+ bets · updating |
| yiyiwong0xd765…8528 | Yes | 690 | 61.1¢ | $286 | — |
| TBill10xd52b…5c72 | No | 488 | 33.9¢ | $285 | Proven+$2.13 per $100 · 561 bets |
| bridling5200xe06a…da38 | Yes | 680 | 59.8¢ | $282 | — |
| yangyangzi8320xb9fe…92f3 | Yes | 680 | 57.5¢ | $282 | — |
| cp01cmt0xca47…01ce | Yes | 663 | 61.3¢ | $275 | — |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | Yes | 651 | 63.4¢ | $270 | Proven+$8.70 per $100 · 4,101 bets |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 648 | 3.8¢ | $269 | Positive+$18.40 per $100 · 368 bets |
| clovek550xc17f…e9b2 | No | 368 | 39.3¢ | $215 | — |
| Zzzz870x2117…5c26 | No | 326 | 35.2¢ | $191 | Losing−$3.68 per $100 · 9,531 bets |
| ammarb0x5efe…5f55 | No | 289 | 34.6¢ | $169 | New44 settled bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 281 | 32.2¢ | $164 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| Artyre0xb8b1…ac9a | No | 278 | 36.9¢ | $162 | — |
| AlexZ70x3896…ece6 | No | 150 | 38.9¢ | $88 | Positive+$1.89 per $100 · 313 bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | No | 150 | 52.1¢ | $88 | Positive+$5.55 per $100 · 87,601 bets |
| akum40xe393…8364 | No | 126 | 32.5¢ | $74 | — |
| 0x904d…7849 | No | 114 | 36.0¢ | $67 | — |
| alijbee0x1874…594f | No | 100 | 35.0¢ | $59 | Proven+$3.99 per $100 · 260 bets |
| liuxb19980x4514…b502 | No | 100 | 39.0¢ | $59 | New55 settled bets |
| 0x745a…64e8 | No | 91 | 34.0¢ | $53 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 8,448 bets |
| 0xe334…b195 | No | 83 | 36.9¢ | $49 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 68 | 48.9¢ | $40 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,990 bets |
| IbnKhaldun0xa4bc…026c | No | 67 | 30.8¢ | $39 | Positive+$2.23 per $100 · 341 bets |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | No | 66 | 29.5¢ | $38 | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,730 bets |
| 0x423e…d872 | No | 63 | 49.0¢ | $37 | — |
| 0xf98f…927d | No | 59 | 34.9¢ | $34 | — |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | No | 50 | 53.0¢ | $29 | — |
| johnthek0xd925…f36f | No | 49 | 53.0¢ | $29 | — |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 46 | 51.0¢ | $27 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| 0xa1ba…8032 | No | 33 | 30.8¢ | $19 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 30 | 61.0¢ | $18 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Tee10000x5edc…bbad | No | 30 | 49.7¢ | $18 | Break-even+$0.84 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| KenanEvren0xb8d6…44ee | No | 28 | 36.9¢ | $16 | — |
| 64Malam0xa69c…4fea | No | 27 | 37.9¢ | $16 | — |
| OkieDokiePeon0x9ddf…2c83 | No | 24 | 21.0¢ | $14 | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 2,178 bets |
| jensond0xa9b7…f43c | No | 23 | 33.4¢ | $13 | — |
| virtua0x61e9…425a | No | 19 | 35.9¢ | $11 | — |
| JoeDirtBuffett0x0e93…0078 | No | 18 | 28.0¢ | $10 | Proven+$2.70 per $100 · 4,096 bets |
| OmeadAzadeh0x962e…1d75 | No | 16 | 30.1¢ | $9 | — |
| tonton690xca90…813a | No | 14 | 35.9¢ | $8 | — |
| GreenlandEnjoyer19480x49a2…8ec5 | No | 14 | 37.9¢ | $8 | — |
| DontBeScared50xdf3b…880a | No | 12 | 29.7¢ | $7 | — |
| steverichie0xc838…1263 | No | 10 | 50.5¢ | $6 | — |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 242 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.