Market · 2 of 9 outcomes
Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| libratus10x28b2…eb4f | No | 3,356 | 87.5¢ | $2.69K | — |
| 0x848282837738290xe38e…50c8 | Yes | 5,684 | 14.1¢ | $1.14K | — |
| elviktor0x81c0…3fa5 | Yes | 688 | 20.1¢ | $138 | — |
| calm.rabbit0x33db…417a | No | 130 | 75.9¢ | $104 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 448 | 27.2¢ | $90 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | No | 93 | 79.8¢ | $75 | — |
| gummy-usb0xdf81…697d | Yes | 315 | 28.2¢ | $63 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 78 | 79.0¢ | $62 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 75 | 84.1¢ | $60 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| 0x8df9…468c | Yes | 294 | 17.6¢ | $59 | — |
| peepeepooppoop0xa5e3…4d7e | Yes | 232 | 35.9¢ | $46 | Break-even+$0.04 per $100 · 11,046 bets |
| Blurry-Ball0x4734…60b1 | Yes | 222 | 12.3¢ | $44 | — |
| 0x9e24…7e71 | Yes | 215 | 17.9¢ | $43 | Proven+$2.42 per $100 · 701 bets |
| wavesinthesky0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | 210 | 16.6¢ | $42 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 4,481 bets |
| 0xe1be…c3f6 | Yes | 180 | 13.2¢ | $36 | — |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | Yes | 162 | 20.6¢ | $32 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 136 | 3.1¢ | $27 | New0 settled bets |
| Spectrum0x0781…c4ff | Yes | 133 | 21.2¢ | $27 | Positive+$1.28 per $100 · 6,282 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 30 | 83.0¢ | $24 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0x46a7…270f | Yes | 113 | 43.3¢ | $23 | — |
| mkk00x76d4…5e86 | Yes | 105 | 19.0¢ | $21 | — |
| Vovasa0xf319…1902 | Yes | 105 | 10.0¢ | $21 | — |
| sxtn0xcc89…cc54 | Yes | 104 | 42.2¢ | $21 | — |
| 0xc35e…d368 | Yes | 100 | 20.0¢ | $20 | New68 settled bets |
| test.saveliyb.test0x6358…cc23 | Yes | 99 | 31.6¢ | $20 | — |
| jennylulu20160xa19f…ddc2 | Yes | 94 | 1.6¢ | $19 | — |
| 0xe479…4924 | Yes | 93 | 44.2¢ | $19 | — |
| 0xf528…7e5b | No | 22 | 80.0¢ | $18 | — |
| Bambinoroma0x9c6f…d83f | Yes | 66 | 45.3¢ | $13 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 65 | 15.3¢ | $13 | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 252,445+ bets · updating |
| capon10x30ad…5d5f | Yes | 60 | 35.0¢ | $12 | — |
| 0x723d…90c4 | Yes | 50 | 44.0¢ | $10 | — |
| Chickenleg0x9d45…87cf | Yes | 45 | 44.9¢ | $9 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 10 | 88.1¢ | $8 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,641 bets |
| 0xe70b…de12 | Yes | 42 | 24.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x2813…2323 | Yes | 41 | 48.4¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xbf32…19a9 | Yes | 41 | 36.9¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 10 | 89.5¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x56a8…eea2 | Yes | 38 | 1.6¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x1bf5…ff5e | No | 9 | 89.4¢ | $7 | — |
| Anaxagor0xa3fb…e6aa | Yes | 30 | 33.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xFBI0xf6c1…ffab | Yes | 24 | 41.2¢ | $5 | — |
| steadygoat0x6497…558c | Yes | 24 | 42.2¢ | $5 | — |
| vadyak0x9495…bb20 | Yes | 23 | 37.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 65sfds0x783e…5a19 | No | 6 | 88.0¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.60 per $100 · 197 bets |
| 0x1411…2410 | Yes | 22 | 11.4¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.28 per $100 · 354 bets |
| moroder0xc2f2…9c80 | Yes | 22 | 45.0¢ | $4 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | No | 5 | 83.7¢ | $4 | Positive+$5.62 per $100 · 87,319 bets |
| jjeeesusssus0x59fe…14fd | No | 5 | 58.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 20,907 bets |
| 0xd10a…b9cd | No | 5 | 88.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0xca3e…c9ff | Yes | 15 | 13.5¢ | $3 | — |
| TerranSupremacy0x4916…f56f | Yes | 15 | 27.6¢ | $3 | Positive+$4.59 per $100 · 8,855 bets |
| 0x6cb2…5586 | Yes | 14 | 36.1¢ | $3 | — |
| iufjfhefi780x0ea1…c714 | Yes | 11 | 18.6¢ | $2 | — |
| ROGERMIR0x4146…01a2 | Yes | 10 | 10.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$17.67 per $100 · 189 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 9 | 11.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| IrthBirth0xc092…5428 | No | 2 | 57.0¢ | $2 | — |
| onyxt0x9de3…b489 | Yes | 9 | 13.5¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x0607…e0e3 | No | 2 | 84.0¢ | $2 | — |
| isnE4ZgjkP3nxh0xdb9c…483d | Yes | 8 | 19.6¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | 7 | 9.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Sm10x215a…6bcd | Yes | 7 | 47.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 3-mil-on-tour0x7595…872e | Yes | 6 | 1.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 86.5¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| vxuo6s85vbor0x1998…469c | Yes | 6 | 39.6¢ | $1 | — |
| mimo-0070xdea8…8642 | Yes | 5 | 33.0¢ | $1 | — |
| OmaJane0x5aec…904b | No | 1 | 60.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Hourglass0x1d8c…757a | No | 1 | 91.3¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 23,982 bets |
| 13klklas0x52b3…3a58 | No | 1 | 80.0¢ | $1 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 64.6¢ | $0 | — |
| no1biao0xdf08…cf97 | No | 0 | 71.2¢ | $0 | — |
| god837438940xe040…824f | No | 0 | 90.4¢ | $0 | — |
| DaveDD0xc6b2…3caa | No | 0 | 59.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf2eb…6eb5 | No | 0 | 70.2¢ | $0 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 0 | 91.3¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,355 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.04M in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.