Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 01:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varil0x611f…ec74 | No | 54,973 | 84.0¢ | $44.8K | — |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 30,000 | 81.8¢ | $24.4K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,258 bets |
| dromedaryy0x6575…b198 | Yes | 114,522 | 17.5¢ | $21.2K | New85 settled bets |
| Ahpo0xcdb1…276c | No | 14,139 | 80.6¢ | $11.5K | Break-even+$0.99 per $100 · 3,433 bets |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 2,259 | 81.0¢ | $1.84K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 2,000 | 83.0¢ | $1.63K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 1,379 | 83.0¢ | $1.12K | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| jcsberger0xadaf…3da0 | No | 1,250 | 82.6¢ | $1.02K | New39 settled bets |
| yoyobb20180x832b…5c91 | No | 1,158 | 83.1¢ | $944 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,007 bets |
| slobod0xab2d…b1aa | No | 1,111 | 83.0¢ | $905 | Break-even+$0.78 per $100 · 2,592 bets |
| bazzaloing0x29a5…7752 | No | 849 | 82.2¢ | $692 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 716 | 85.9¢ | $583 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 588 | 81.6¢ | $479 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | No | 518 | 82.1¢ | $422 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| PMTraderAdam0x1547…d066 | No | 500 | 81.0¢ | $407 | — |
| Dragontree0x2c39…56dc | No | 450 | 76.7¢ | $367 | Proven+$2.69 per $100 · 3,239 bets |
| Cupzey0x750d…c7f2 | No | 348 | 86.0¢ | $284 | — |
| timeistmoney0xf0ed…87b1 | No | 300 | 76.7¢ | $244 | — |
| immanuelcan0x04b9…79e0 | Yes | 1,244 | 15.0¢ | $230 | Positive+$1.13 per $100 · 2,550 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 252 | 82.6¢ | $205 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| Qued0x6d0e…7759 | No | 244 | 82.6¢ | $199 | — |
| 0x7b64…8440 | No | 240 | 81.3¢ | $196 | — |
| DanGabriel0x541c…c462 | No | 200 | 87.0¢ | $163 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 183 bets |
| Davidbill0x6a2f…7105 | No | 200 | 82.0¢ | $163 | — |
| Howids0xae11…2d01 | No | 200 | 83.0¢ | $163 | — |
| pjotrekkk0xf102…1348 | No | 200 | 82.0¢ | $163 | Proven+$3.29 per $100 · 20,519 bets |
| RobotBeta0xf379…c1ca | No | 200 | 86.0¢ | $163 | — |
| Tomas77770xf9c0…62b2 | No | 200 | 83.0¢ | $163 | — |
| 0x5b50…1742 | No | 199 | 83.0¢ | $162 | — |
| 77kbCcPrd2uG8w0x8dde…5045 | No | 178 | 80.0¢ | $145 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 174 bets |
| unclefei0280xf88b…0ed2 | No | 150 | 82.6¢ | $122 | — |
| betstaker0xd3fe…2b28 | No | 133 | 81.3¢ | $109 | Losing−$5.29 per $100 · 542 bets |
| wwvv0xee65…bc52 | No | 122 | 82.6¢ | $99 | — |
| arrpadex0xecfe…74e6 | No | 120 | 85.0¢ | $98 | — |
| from000xc1ab…68f2 | No | 100 | 85.5¢ | $82 | — |
| infoowl0xbeb1…2630 | No | 80 | 26.0¢ | $65 | — |
| rocky420030x2e62…b22e | Yes | 300 | 21.0¢ | $56 | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 10,636 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 67 | 80.6¢ | $55 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 61 | 22.0¢ | $50 | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| calllum0x51a4…dd44 | No | 59 | 82.6¢ | $48 | — |
| tinman20x9bae…5d34 | No | 50 | 85.5¢ | $41 | — |
| 0xf15c…78cc | No | 49 | 83.0¢ | $40 | — |
| 0xa5ba…c545 | No | 48 | 80.6¢ | $39 | — |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | No | 36 | 84.4¢ | $29 | — |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | No | 30 | 83.6¢ | $24 | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| WalterSobchack0x64be…c653 | No | 23 | 51.6¢ | $19 | Losing−$1.06 per $100 · 1,976 bets |
| tzquantalpha0010x5923…49cd | No | 21 | 82.6¢ | $17 | — |
| sonubisht0xa66c…8460 | No | 16 | 82.6¢ | $13 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 15 | 82.2¢ | $12 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| PcMYjCcPrd5yb35I0xb4e5…b668 | No | 13 | 82.6¢ | $11 | — |
| blissful00x2a75…7d66 | No | 8 | 81.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$3.16 per $100 · 528 bets |
| ogi2500x3373…3716 | No | 6 | 81.6¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x6729…d586 | Yes | 25 | 19.5¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.19 per $100 · 231 bets |
| zxcursed1210x945a…a48c | Yes | 11 | 32.5¢ | $2 | Positive+$10.47 per $100 · 49,814+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 9 | 17.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| sahamies0x5dbc…e3c7 | Yes | 5 | 19.6¢ | $1 | New60 settled bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 0 | 18.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 92 events · $5.94M in play