Market · 6 of 15 outcomes
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:31 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnYesYes0xac29…36c7 | Yes | 24,384 | 0.7¢ | $146 | New45 settled bets |
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | Yes | 24,383 | 1.5¢ | $146 | — |
| 393dC0xc019…54b1 | No | 124 | 99.2¢ | $123 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 97 | 99.5¢ | $96 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| Mustafalafel0x8c0b…f0fb | Yes | 9,374 | 0.6¢ | $56 | Proven+$9.94 per $100 · 497 bets |
| hotcatcat0x3eca…ab82 | No | 55 | 99.2¢ | $55 | New74 settled bets |
| akum40xe393…8364 | No | 32 | 99.5¢ | $32 | — |
| 0xee8a…f0b0 | Yes | 5,250 | 0.9¢ | $32 | — |
| sawyer27180x3b0e…6348 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.4¢ | $30 | — |
| TruongMyLan0x6978…08d8 | Yes | 4,269 | 3.6¢ | $26 | Positive+$6.64 per $100 · 1,269 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 3,361 | 2.2¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 22,975 bets |
| 0x6791…0434 | Yes | 3,212 | 3.2¢ | $19 | — |
| Tony100x4274…ba73 | Yes | 3,110 | 0.5¢ | $19 | — |
| AnimalEater0xa445…0286 | Yes | 2,982 | 0.3¢ | $18 | Proven+$58.33 per $100 · 566 bets |
| 9pooo0xefc7…b9f9 | No | 18 | 99.3¢ | $18 | — |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 2,885 | 0.7¢ | $17 | Losing−$7.61 per $100 · 365,910+ bets · updating |
| planktonXD0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | 2,495 | 1.0¢ | $15 | Positive+$4.78 per $100 · 59,136+ bets · updating |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | Yes | 2,456 | 0.5¢ | $15 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| 0x0cc7…7349 | Yes | 1,934 | 2.1¢ | $12 | New59 settled bets |
| shiwuv0x20dd…9858 | No | 10 | 97.2¢ | $10 | — |
| Mushy-Transport0x8884…84ee | Yes | 1,500 | 0.5¢ | $9 | — |
| plygd0xf077…a95c | Yes | 1,444 | 0.7¢ | $9 | — |
| tianween0x09b3…2cd8 | No | 8 | 99.6¢ | $8 | New30 settled bets |
| SpyVsSpy0x1137…4ed5 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.5¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 1,490 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 846 | 3.8¢ | $5 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,285 bets |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 818 | 0.9¢ | $5 | Positive+$12.19 per $100 · 3,934 bets |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | Yes | 604 | 1.5¢ | $4 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 578 | 0.8¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 542 | 3.7¢ | $3 | Losing−$2.58 per $100 · 123,998 bets |
| acal0x250c…2774 | Yes | 537 | 0.4¢ | $3 | Positive+$16.35 per $100 · 11,119 bets |
| Superbigote0x7460…31e8 | Yes | 385 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| crop?0xe308…309c | Yes | 331 | 2.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x659d…a037 | Yes | 325 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 302 | 3.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,648 bets |
| 0x1c44…6021 | Yes | 300 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| R-770x2d62…0a41 | Yes | 300 | 0.9¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.25 per $100 · 1,503 bets |
| JTJabba0x584a…da42 | Yes | 259 | 0.6¢ | $2 | — |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 255 | 3.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$18.40 per $100 · 368 bets |
| chaosengine0xc28f…f7ae | Yes | 251 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Miguel2621440x2df5…51ac | Yes | 247 | 0.6¢ | $1 | Proven+$4.12 per $100 · 9,181 bets |
| 0xbd1a…5375 | Yes | 229 | 2.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 99.6¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| Maitredeceremonie0x74b6…134b | Yes | 201 | 0.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x718e…0b22 | Yes | 172 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x78b3…6dda | No | 1 | 99.4¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 159 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.97 per $100 · 66,059 bets |
| 0xeb68…e362 | No | 1 | 99.7¢ | $1 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 154 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| dgfd760x191e…ef6b | Yes | 135 | 1.6¢ | $1 | — |
| wavesinthesky0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | 134 | 0.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 4,481 bets |
| iyarsius0xf4e3…fd1f | Yes | 125 | 0.8¢ | $1 | — |
| RandomWalker30x9276…37a3 | Yes | 111 | 0.9¢ | $1 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 109 | 1.4¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 58,970+ bets · updating |
| 387918739841890x0d2d…7ff5 | Yes | 104 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 36,281+ bets · updating |
| chohakune0x13da…40b8 | Yes | 100 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| qqqppp-l10x229c…b966 | Yes | 100 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 100 | 2.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 98 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| 0xb032…c16c | Yes | 90 | 2.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x8a34…0a4d | Yes | 80 | 1.4¢ | $0 | — |
| smallreceipt0x942e…be27 | No | 0 | 99.3¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 99.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,877 bets |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | No | 0 | 99.5¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 22,277 bets |
| PiEDawg0xcf43…b321 | No | 0 | 98.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$9.20 per $100 · 7,924 bets |
| appachi0x2769…673b | No | 0 | 99.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.06M in play
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.