Market · 48 of 54 outcomes
Will Alex Padilla win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 05:54 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 12 events · $63.9M in play
Exactly one of this event's 54 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA0x0c0e…434e | Yes | 623,886 | 0.6¢ | $312 | Proven+$4.10 per $100 · 2,050 bets |
| LAROW0xc474…6061 | Yes | 500,000 | 0.1¢ | $250 | New78 settled bets |
| 0xcdlambjrrt0lk1en0js1mps0nipda1lyjfk0x52c2…0556 | Yes | 202,181 | 0.5¢ | $101 | New22 settled bets |
| carrie600x4892…4704 | No | 90 | 99.9¢ | $90 | — |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 166,449 | 0.8¢ | $83 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 16,285 bets |
| Asperatus0x36a7…1aea | Yes | 125,156 | 0.2¢ | $63 | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 735 bets |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | Yes | 115,000 | 0.8¢ | $58 | Losing−$2.28 per $100 · 6,744 bets |
| jeb20160x4638…d587 | Yes | 104,000 | 0.4¢ | $52 | — |
| J-E-R0x612f…aa53 | Yes | 95,716 | 0.7¢ | $48 | Proven+$12.99 per $100 · 623 bets |
| smoltrader0x17e5…3d19 | Yes | 57,520 | 0.4¢ | $29 | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 8,571 bets |
| GayPride0x551e…b0e0 | Yes | 52,500 | 0.4¢ | $26 | Proven+$6.82 per $100 · 967 bets |
| 0x16cb…2704 | Yes | 42,999 | 0.7¢ | $21 | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 7,120 bets |
| uprightuser0xd64e…5516 | Yes | 40,000 | 0.4¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A0xa3a4…5106 | Yes | 39,200 | 0.8¢ | $20 | Positive+$136.59 per $100 · 601 bets |
| alwayslatetotheparty0xb687…aee5 | Yes | 36,028 | 0.8¢ | $18 | Positive+$79.22 per $100 · 1,617 bets |
| 0x6276…2dd9 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.4¢ | $15 | — |
| sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.4¢ | $15 | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 6,324 bets |
| CoffeeLover0xc1b3…501c | Yes | 28,701 | 0.7¢ | $14 | Positive+$6.49 per $100 · 2,902 bets |
| RobXK0x60b2…3cce | Yes | 25,000 | 0.7¢ | $13 | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 2,750 bets |
| LeopoldArschenbrenner0x8671…d4b7 | Yes | 20,795 | 0.7¢ | $10 | New41 settled bets |
| 0xb7de…b802 | Yes | 19,663 | 0.8¢ | $10 | Proven+$2.99 per $100 · 625 bets |
| NyetRisk0xc03c…50af | Yes | 18,953 | 0.8¢ | $9 | Positive+$22.95 per $100 · 234 bets |
| RaymondVan0x5677…2ce9 | Yes | 18,511 | 0.6¢ | $9 | Losing−$4.16 per $100 · 748 bets |
| nhpx38txna05000x712f…b93b | Yes | 15,000 | 0.7¢ | $8 | Proven+$4.54 per $100 · 509 bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 14,550 | 0.7¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | Yes | 14,444 | 0.7¢ | $7 | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| ddalkkak0x16bd…e288 | Yes | 13,331 | 0.4¢ | $7 | Positive+$7.19 per $100 · 657 bets |
| honreserektus0xc69b…1134 | No | 6 | 99.9¢ | $6 | — |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 12,007 | 0.7¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| Gucky-450xe613…540e | Yes | 10,930 | 0.4¢ | $5 | Positive+$9.88 per $100 · 2,562 bets |
| JustCrazy0xc21e…0215 | Yes | 10,210 | 0.4¢ | $5 | Positive+$6.92 per $100 · 1,770 bets |
| intermester0xff34…bf20 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.1¢ | $5 | — |
| JoanneMitchell6980x23c3…2e16 | No | 5 | 0.0¢ | $5 | — |
| elPolloLoco0xa2f1…2d22 | Yes | 8,700 | 0.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.78 per $100 · 4,814 bets |
| cocococococo0xbad2…5296 | Yes | 8,011 | 0.6¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.80 per $100 · 4,082 bets |
| Fermatter0x0d09…dd55 | Yes | 8,000 | 0.8¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 2,822 bets |
| gandalf0x21f9…ed12 | Yes | 7,909 | 0.0¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 1,386 bets |
| GabrielleChavez7590x2605…de95 | No | 4 | 99.9¢ | $4 | — |
| mlferker0x3691…decd | Yes | 7,050 | 0.0¢ | $4 | New0 settled bets |
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | Yes | 6,800 | 0.5¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| AshleyColeman5670x3f69…80b2 | No | 3 | 99.9¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | Yes | 6,198 | 0.7¢ | $3 | Positive+$2.43 per $100 · 5,618 bets |
| kqwjehrbqwemn0x92f6…bd97 | Yes | 6,000 | 0.7¢ | $3 | New65 settled bets |
| konsomida0x60c6…247f | Yes | 5,500 | 0.6¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.21 per $100 · 750 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 5,000 | 0.5¢ | $3 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| 0x2255…a674 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $3 | Losing−$59.48 per $100 · 230 bets |
| 0x4911…bbf7 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x7298…fcfc | Yes | 5,000 | 0.4¢ | $3 | Positive+$7.47 per $100 · 908 bets |
| Retired-Davis0x8365…e9a6 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.0¢ | $3 | — |
| FreeCityIndividual0x098e…6fa2 | Yes | 4,613 | 0.8¢ | $2 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 5,147 bets |
| 1sk0x06e8…4675 | Yes | 4,226 | 0.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$2.74 per $100 · 979 bets |
| JJo0xc408…4675 | Yes | 4,225 | 0.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,924 bets |
| TruongMyLan0x6978…08d8 | Yes | 4,027 | 0.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$6.58 per $100 · 1,267 bets |
| JuliusNakamoto0xdf5e…4168 | Yes | 4,000 | 0.4¢ | $2 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 3,818 | 0.8¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,584 bets |
| Jacob79010x03bb…4db7 | No | 2 | 99.9¢ | $2 | — |
| durkanakarte0x4613…6f10 | No | 1 | 0.0¢ | $1 | — |
| oklaxoma0xdc93…73fa | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| rabo4ij0x64a5…34d0 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.