Market · 4 of 13 outcomes
SpaceXAI matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:35 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 524 | 77.7¢ | $451 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| PavtheGreat0x048a…9be4 | No | 356 | 61.4¢ | $306 | Losing |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| lamyk0xc004…c095 | No | 240 | 68.5¢ | $207 | — |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | No | 196 | 55.0¢ | $169 | Positive+$2.43 per $100 · 5,618 bets |
| 0x61b5…40c6 | No | 90 | 63.6¢ | $77 | — |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 345 | 32.3¢ | $48 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 294 | 19.0¢ | $41 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 234 | 34.2¢ | $33 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Pepejhon0x0bd4…994d | No | 36 | 83.6¢ | $31 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 220 | 19.0¢ | $31 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 188 | 13.8¢ | $26 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| 0xda0f…2a19 | No | 30 | 82.0¢ | $26 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 20 | 55.1¢ | $17 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| abracadaniel0x2978…e738 | No | 20 | 91.0¢ | $17 | — |
| Fihdrzgdd0xe8fc…0d3b | Yes | 120 | 19.0¢ | $17 | — |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 8 | 79.0¢ | $7 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 40 | 19.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| 0xd356…963d | Yes | 27 | 44.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da.0x29ed…a8da | Yes | 20 | 19.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$3.37 per $100 · 13,656 bets |
| smarterstrat0xe550…6f6e | Yes | 14 | 18.0¢ | $2 | — |
| easyautomate0xd069…d078 | Yes | 10 | 17.6¢ | $1 | — |
| smileudance0xaa73…c2c4 | Yes | 5 | 19.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 2 | 11.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,637 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 1 | 7.2¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| trader-0eec4a7f0x0eec…e587 | Yes | 0 | 16.0¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 0 | 38.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| maomao2280xfe46…6133 | Yes | 0 | 21.0¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 50 shares each side · Show
|
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 99 events · $6.03M in play