Market · 5 of 6 outcomes
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 99 events · $6.03M in play
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alicie0x4d58…8679 | No | 1,200 | 87.3¢ | $1.01K | — |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 999 | 76.6¢ | $844 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| lamyk0xc004…c095 |
| No |
| 428 |
| 48.0¢ |
| $362 |
| — |
| mamai0xabbe…8f37 | No | 409 | 69.9¢ | $345 | Losing−$7.39 per $100 · 667 bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 404 | 92.1¢ | $341 | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,964 bets |
| Liechti00xb410…57eb | No | 400 | 51.0¢ | $338 | New63 settled bets |
| poli.monaco0xf767…61df | No | 364 | 86.8¢ | $307 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 318 | 88.8¢ | $269 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,637 bets |
| dublyash20xb94c…4c0c | Yes | 1,392 | 31.3¢ | $216 | — |
| Dapsy0x73d2…f9b7 | No | 200 | 86.0¢ | $169 | — |
| cym19690x68a7…f49a | Yes | 965 | 12.5¢ | $150 | — |
| mizukih0x2658…0aa2 | No | 176 | 79.0¢ | $149 | — |
| fjlivy0x4620…2916 | Yes | 936 | 11.1¢ | $145 | — |
| RATHMA40xf9ac…806e | No | 164 | 87.3¢ | $138 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 150 | 53.9¢ | $127 | Positive+$8.63 per $100 · 127,579 bets |
| 0xffac…bbf5 | No | 100 | 88.4¢ | $85 | — |
| stephaneau0xc0cf…4f1b | No | 90 | 65.7¢ | $76 | — |
| 0xeb8a…f706 | No | 85 | 48.0¢ | $72 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 84 | 46.4¢ | $71 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 417 | 53.8¢ | $65 | — |
| delfo0xabd4…f03b | No | 74 | 88.4¢ | $62 | — |
| Rumpelstiltskin0xfb1b…a11d | Yes | 400 | 33.9¢ | $62 | — |
| bl4ckvoya10x0fa6…2663 | No | 70 | 48.0¢ | $59 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 295 | 34.4¢ | $46 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| Podublin0xb4a3…c352 | No | 43 | 92.3¢ | $37 | — |
| smith-dom0x8653…0d6b | No | 43 | 48.0¢ | $36 | — |
| holmman0xaa41…f0ac | No | 43 | 48.0¢ | $36 | — |
| LabEma0x1d7c…ef17 | No | 40 | 88.4¢ | $34 | — |
| TheDao0x26f8…a969 | Yes | 200 | 52.0¢ | $31 | New71 settled bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | No | 35 | 88.0¢ | $30 | Losing−$11.36 per $100 · 30,622+ bets · updating |
| 0xbeef…620e | No | 34 | 88.8¢ | $28 | — |
| Gaby990x3d74…b519 | Yes | 168 | 20.2¢ | $26 | New9 settled bets |
| title10xbe74…a70e | Yes | 137 | 54.0¢ | $21 | Positive+$1.92 per $100 · 7,460 bets |
| Yiren0xf3ea…3039 | No | 24 | 84.5¢ | $20 | — |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | No | 23 | 87.2¢ | $19 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| wreak0x56c8…4975 | No | 20 | 48.0¢ | $17 | — |
| robotax0xafd7…bf4e | No | 20 | 83.0¢ | $17 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 20 | 87.0¢ | $17 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| miaoxiaojie0xb3c8…2e5a | Yes | 100 | 16.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Playpool0xd628…a698 | No | 18 | 84.5¢ | $15 | — |
| DidYKH0xd16b…36c0 | No | 16 | 64.9¢ | $13 | — |
| lochilo0x438c…481a | No | 15 | 68.9¢ | $12 | Losing−$3.08 per $100 · 311 bets |
| totalost8010xda39…b4aa | Yes | 73 | 8.5¢ | $11 | — |
| radeksaturka0xa98c…5173 | Yes | 71 | 30.4¢ | $11 | — |
| Asipbajrami0x98f3…244d | No | 12 | 58.1¢ | $10 | — |
| televisionloud0x6c1c…1ac2 | Yes | 64 | 17.3¢ | $10 | — |
| kevinbolcic0xb184…d306 | Yes | 60 | 32.3¢ | $9 | — |
| 8-800-555-35-350xa81a…7dfa | No | 11 | 48.0¢ | $9 | — |
| ddd1d430x0b4e…4d72 | No | 10 | 70.0¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 3,507 bets |
| vbm0x8304…f086 | No | 10 | 85.5¢ | $8 | — |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | No | 10 | 70.0¢ | $8 | — |
| asdfasdf110xc216…888c | No | 10 | 89.0¢ | $8 | — |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 49 | 37.6¢ | $8 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 12,688 bets |
| sdssds0x813f…26ec | Yes | 43 | 30.9¢ | $7 | — |
| lightsout9120x7e1d…4d41 | Yes | 42 | 15.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 41 | 32.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| politode0x5fa6…46ee | Yes | 35 | 52.0¢ | $5 | — |
| BetterDeadThanRed0xe77b…4938 | No | 6 | 68.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x4629…f3b1 | Yes | 30 | 37.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 5,354 bets |
| cocumberinocapucino0xa99f…d8a7 | No | 5 | 74.8¢ | $5 | — |
| galhammerman0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | 29 | 29.0¢ | $4 | — |
| sajat5mm0xb349…39d8 | No | 5 | 35.0¢ | $4 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 26 | 50.0¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 24 | 16.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| james7rjames7r0x8692…f6c8 | Yes | 22 | 27.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 22 | 5.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| corsur40x5c0a…a2c3 | Yes | 21 | 11.4¢ | $3 | — |
| JakeBeez0x25b9…3058 | Yes | 20 | 15.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 0xad4c…26f3 | Yes | 20 | 27.0¢ | $3 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 20 | 32.0¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,334 bets |
| lll918dd0x6250…f49a | No | 4 | 38.0¢ | $3 | Proven+$2.83 per $100 · 2,915 bets |
| Leclerc040x38cf…d885 | Yes | 15 | 45.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$4.46 per $100 · 1,422 bets |
| 0xc036…ff96 | No | 3 | 72.2¢ | $2 | — |
| sm-020x7a55…9e6b | Yes | 14 | 14.5¢ | $2 | — |
| Jakeagewhite0xfb25…dce3 | No | 2 | 48.0¢ | $2 | — |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 11 | 52.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| ddd13421b0x1292…b00b | Yes | 10 | 53.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.73 per $100 · 9,059 bets |
| asdfdd1230x2232…a2c5 | Yes | 10 | 32.0¢ | $2 | — |
| aandriy0x5de8…f004 | Yes | 10 | 52.0¢ | $2 | — |
| aaabbasdfcc0x8b30…876e | Yes | 10 | 53.0¢ | $2 | — |
| wertyasdy0x1d7a…a550 | No | 2 | 62.9¢ | $1 | New44 settled bets |
| 0x3058…c888 | No | 2 | 63.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xe3bb…d213 | No | 2 | 63.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x030d…f512 | No | 2 | 64.9¢ | $1 | — |
| asd560xda65…e87e | Yes | 7 | 27.0¢ | $1 | — |
| ConsensusOfCredibleReporting0x0275…b936 | Yes | 6 | 18.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 14,400 bets |
| 0xa169…1b73 | Yes | 6 | 17.6¢ | $1 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 6 | 29.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Gandoron0x4e4b…88ce | Yes | 5 | 52.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xccd1…c7b6 | Yes | 5 | 5.0¢ | $1 | — |
| smileudance0xaa73…c2c4 | Yes | 4 | 23.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0a3e…0839 | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2383…7e3b | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x27f2…cc15 | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x292e…d3ef | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x2bcc…14fe | Yes | 4 | 24.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x0064…cf5d | Yes | 2 | 27.8¢ | $0 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 17 shares each side · Show
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