Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:44 UTC. Not financial advice.
Russia Invades Another Country · 2 events · $278K in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| aenews20x44c1…ebc1 | Yes | 827 | 59.9¢ | $628 | Positive+$1.65 per $100 · 4,115 bets |
| ENORMOUZ0x34da…c155 | Yes | 426 | 84.4¢ | $324 | — |
| koninginhetuniverse0xa579…aad0 | Yes | 353 | 86.5¢ | $268 | Break-even+$0.28 per $100 · 2,329 bets |
| CHIKI330xff52…4546 | No | 640 | 40.0¢ | $154 | — |
| Konfucious0xac76…9359 | No | 479 | 20.9¢ | $115 | — |
| melonmanm0x0787…0ca3 | Yes | 94 | 75.6¢ | $72 | Proven+$7.03 per $100 · 1,581 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 76 | 73.7¢ | $58 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| 0xb1b3…7ff0 | Yes | 61 | 82.0¢ | $46 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 188 | 16.7¢ | $45 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| FishHunter0x676c…ce51 | No | 125 | 23.7¢ | $30 | — |
| OkieDokiePeon0x9ddf…2c83 | No | 100 | 22.0¢ | $24 | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 2,178 bets |
| zer0parallax0xe30e…c008 | Yes | 30 | 78.0¢ | $23 | — |
| zvonokchess0x8f43…6ae6 | Yes | 24 | 82.6¢ | $18 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 65 | 22.8¢ | $16 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| vortl0xef9f…8924 | No | 60 | 9.0¢ | $14 | Positive+$3.42 per $100 · 564 bets |
| 0xf965…ccb0 | Yes | 16 | 76.0¢ | $12 | New34 settled bets |
| QR10x45bb…41a7 | No | 47 | 24.1¢ | $11 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 46 | 24.0¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 131,061 bets |
| driftc0x142c…887e | Yes | 13 | 76.0¢ | $10 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | 40 | 23.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$6.78 per $100 · 32,308 bets |
| GOLADS960x894d…04e2 | No | 36 | 22.0¢ | $9 | New56 settled bets |
| thunderquack0x07fd…ad26 | No | 35 | 22.8¢ | $8 | Proven+$5.90 per $100 · 614 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 26 | 25.2¢ | $6 | Losing−$8.42 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 23 | 24.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| kondor-keselyu0x8894…0ab9 | Yes | 6 | 78.0¢ | $5 | — |
| alivedeer0xe0c5…913c | Yes | 6 | 80.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$12.71 per $100 · 427 bets |
| 0xff12…cdc4 | Yes | 5 | 76.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$5.81 per $100 · 651 bets |
| IRMMA0x5826…7595 | No | 13 | 23.0¢ | $3 | — |
| AMAM130x52eb…67ac | No | 10 | 24.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$5.46 per $100 · 31,074 bets |
| ogi2500x3373…3716 | No | 4 | 25.0¢ | $1 | — |
| nibblemaxxing0xc50c…3017 | Yes | 0 | 58.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.