Market · 6 of 13 outcomes
DeepSeek matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 501 | 94.1¢ | $476 | Positive+$2.06 per $100 · 3,296 bets |
| 0x61b5…40c6 | No | 221 | 96.3¢ | $210 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 170 | 90.0¢ | $161 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| Dr.mett0xe0dc…3944 | No | 116 | 79.7¢ | $110 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 51 | 94.0¢ | $49 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 131,061 bets |
| qbug0xf939…aded | No | 50 | 94.0¢ | $48 | — |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 46 | 94.0¢ | $44 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 264 | 8.5¢ | $13 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 247 | 8.1¢ | $12 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 150 | 7.5¢ | $8 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 128 | 13.6¢ | $6 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 121 | 2.0¢ | $6 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | No | 3 | 86.5¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 40 | 23.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| pootytherewardfarmer0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | 37 | 26.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.59 per $100 · 59,724+ bets · updating |
| Onixrock0xa543…d96c | Yes | 36 | 8.3¢ | $2 | — |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | Yes | 25 | 12.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.12 per $100 · 12,743 bets |
| 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | 21 | 8.9¢ | $1 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 21 | 10.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0x489a…fff2 | Yes | 20 | 9.0¢ | $1 | — |
| bechamel0xd322…8503 | Yes | 20 | 25.0¢ | $1 | — |
| crossFiter0x1284…3694 | Yes | 15 | 13.0¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 3,178 bets |
| 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | 5 | 15.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$15.49 per $100 · 4,509 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 5 | 12.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Majas0x4959…a6f5 | Yes | 4 | 26.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 22,612 bets |
| richyee0xcdf5…e344 | Yes | 0 | 7.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.08M in play