Market · 10 of 13 outcomes
Alibaba matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:03 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KiernanMeister0xb1ca…1705 | No | 664 | 93.2¢ | $644 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 3,277 bets |
| 0xdc3E831cad0x5ecd…0787 | No | 437 | 90.4¢ | $423 | Positive+$2.43 per $100 · 5,618 bets |
| 572849100x856a…4ea2 | No | 202 | 97.1¢ | $196 | New18 settled bets |
| 0x61b5…40c6 | No | 161 | 93.5¢ | $156 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 77 | 89.2¢ | $75 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| chessplayer0x4b8a…f4a4 | No | 30 | 88.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 12,688 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 21 | 93.0¢ | $21 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,021 bets |
| tradetosurvive10x30fb…7db4 | Yes | 236 | 11.8¢ | $7 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 225 | 18.1¢ | $7 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| LonelyScissors0x460b…9894 | Yes | 200 | 1.0¢ | $6 | — |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 6 | 92.0¢ | $6 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 168 | 7.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 160 | 5.2¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 136 | 9.3¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 129 | 4.7¢ | $4 | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 7,346 bets |
| doudouc0x74aa…2c3f | Yes | 100 | 18.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | 66 | 3.9¢ | $2 | Losing−$6.99 per $100 · 50,820 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 44 | 3.0¢ | $1 | — |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | No | 1 | 93.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| abracadaniel0x2978…e738 | Yes | 40 | 22.0¢ | $1 | — |
| driphop0x2773…045c | Yes | 30 | 19.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 21 | 3.6¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | Yes | 20 | 2.9¢ | $1 | — |
| smileudance0xaa73…c2c4 | Yes | 14 | 7.3¢ | $0 | — |
| trader-0eec4a7f0x0eec…e587 | Yes | 10 | 3.0¢ | $0 | — |
| richardd0x34cb…7588 | No | 0 | 94.0¢ | $0 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 0 | 11.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,514 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 100 events · $6.03M in play