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Topic · Politics
6 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
0.3% of Polymarket
Events · markets
1 · 6
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
6 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Nov 1
in 21 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by...? | December 31, 2027 | 45.5¢ | – | $0.87M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:14 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
Yes minus No · across the 6 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| aff30xe52c…6924 | No on December 31, 2026 | $255.4K | Proven+$2.90 per $100 · 274 bets |
| GoriIIa0xfffa…864b | No on December 31, 2026 | $245.5K | Proven+$2.39 per $100 · 414 bets |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No on December 31, 2026 | $55.0K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
| gorovi0x1de9…831d | No on December 31, 2026 | $27.3K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 398 bets |
| 0xcf19…6402 | No on December 31, 2026 | $17.6K | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 457 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | No on December 31, 2026 | $14.5K | Proven+$5.27 per $100 · 3,127 bets |
| AlfredTheShiller0xcd6b…68f5 | No on December 31, 2026 | $13.3K | Proven+$5.96 per $100 · 1,413 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No on December 31, 2026 | $11.4K | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| Alphax0xc781…59d7 | No on December 31, 2026 | $11.3K | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 1,638 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No on December 31, 2026 | $7.5K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.