Market · 8 of 15 outcomes
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:19 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gaoqiqiang0x4c78…ad61 | No | 174 | 99.8¢ | $173 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 153 | 99.7¢ | $153 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,938 bets |
| tanganq0xc2aa…82e5 | No | 123 | 99.7¢ | $122 | — |
| OnYesYes0xac29…36c7 | Yes | 25,081 | 0.4¢ | $113 | New45 settled bets |
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | Yes | 16,524 | 0.4¢ | $74 | — |
| 33456670x112b…246f | No | 63 | 99.8¢ | $63 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 45 | 99.8¢ | $45 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,396 bets |
| fiter0xf5e8…9fbd | Yes | 7,800 | 0.2¢ | $35 | Positive+$43.18 per $100 · 2,767 bets |
| sawyer27180x3b0e…6348 | Yes | 7,000 | 1.0¢ | $31 | — |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 6,985 | 2.2¢ | $31 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| yukoo0xb9a9…254e | No | 30 | 98.8¢ | $30 | — |
| ttyoo0x0f83…643f | Yes | 5,000 | 0.2¢ | $22 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 4,939 | 0.8¢ | $22 | Positive+$12.21 per $100 · 3,929 bets |
| jumperq0x3443…6474 | No | 20 | 98.8¢ | $20 | — |
| hzygogogo0xe11d…e235 | No | 16 | 99.5¢ | $16 | — |
| 0xee8a…f0b0 | Yes | 2,950 | 0.2¢ | $13 | — |
| Stann0xdf7e…6d4d | Yes | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | $11 | — |
| crop?0xe308…309c | Yes | 2,159 | 0.8¢ | $10 | — |
| tbdfvs0xf4bf…f2ca | No | 10 | 99.5¢ | $10 | — |
| Bukrev0xd9c8…c658 | Yes | 2,044 | 0.7¢ | $9 | — |
| Hot-Skull0xd12f…e85a | Yes | 2,000 | 0.6¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 1,923 | 0.3¢ | $9 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 30,060+ bets · updating |
| AnimalEater0xa445…0286 | Yes | 1,909 | 0.2¢ | $9 | Proven+$58.33 per $100 · 566 bets |
| AlexZ70x3896…ece6 | Yes | 1,800 | 0.7¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.89 per $100 · 313 bets |
| fghyf5560x9298…2e6a | No | 7 | 99.4¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x4917…e9c7 | Yes | 1,534 | 0.7¢ | $7 | — |
| Mushy-Transport0x8884…84ee | Yes | 1,500 | 0.3¢ | $7 | — |
| forgotmydinner0x4a0e…a4b1 | Yes | 1,477 | 3.8¢ | $7 | Positive+$18.40 per $100 · 368 bets |
| acal0x250c…2774 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.3¢ | $4 | Positive+$16.24 per $100 · 11,101 bets |
| LongShot-Louie0xbfbb…dc2b | Yes | 900 | 0.7¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.39 per $100 · 607 bets |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | Yes | 871 | 0.6¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| plygd0xf077…a95c | Yes | 854 | 0.6¢ | $4 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 846 | 3.8¢ | $4 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 842 | 3.8¢ | $4 | Positive+$8.63 per $100 · 127,579 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 841 | 3.8¢ | $4 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,224 bets |
| 0xbc3e…6693 | Yes | 629 | 0.8¢ | $3 | — |
| Tony100x4274…ba73 | Yes | 567 | 0.3¢ | $3 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 506 | 3.8¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| SpyVsSpy0x1137…4ed5 | Yes | 500 | 0.5¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.90 per $100 · 1,490 bets |
| 0x1c44…6021 | Yes | 400 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Superbigote0x7460…31e8 | Yes | 396 | 0.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Xedr0xbde8…211a | Yes | 318 | 3.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x659d…a037 | Yes | 309 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 300 | 3.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 2kparabellum0xa9d0…60ed | Yes | 300 | 1.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Wwx0xb37f…fdcf | Yes | 300 | 0.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9181…64ac | Yes | 278 | 1.9¢ | $1 | — |
| marketgravity0xae73…09fa | Yes | 250 | 1.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 51150x6c5f…f483 | Yes | 242 | 1.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xeb68…e362 | No | 1 | 99.9¢ | $1 | — |
| asee0x10e8…e98f | Yes | 175 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x1ca4…355b | Yes | 164 | 1.9¢ | $1 | — |
| sigmon0xd3a3…3150 | Yes | 160 | 1.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 159 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,044 bets |
| supervibe0xb254…3115 | Yes | 152 | 2.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x1411…2410 | Yes | 150 | 0.7¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.28 per $100 · 354 bets |
| iyarsius0xf4e3…fd1f | Yes | 143 | 0.7¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x1e75…63f1 | Yes | 131 | 1.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.06 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| 0x0731…4245 | Yes | 125 | 0.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 110 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| 387918739841890x0d2d…7ff5 | Yes | 104 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 36,281+ bets · updating |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 50 | 2.6¢ | $0 | — |
| plainfolder0x28bf…4a4e | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.38 per $100 · 41,591+ bets · updating |
| VictorLudorum0x090a…0fa6 | No | 0 | 99.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.47 per $100 · 22,145 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 98.1¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| cash-machine0x5566…7c29 | No | 0 | 99.4¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 99 events · $6.03M in play
Exactly one of this event's 15 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.