Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:24 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · October 2026 · 1 event · $4.53M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
12 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| gaven-willwin0xfbe6…00f8 | Yes | 305,923 | 61.4¢ | $255K | New35 settled bets |
| Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7 | Yes | 301,000 | 78.8¢ | $251K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | Yes | 245,104 | 56.0¢ | $205K | Losing−$5.17 per $100 · 30,004+ bets · updating |
| Erasmus.0xc658…b784 | Yes | 235,533 | 83.0¢ | $197K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 875 bets |
| Ronaldo21000x71ca…3501 | Yes | 216,664 | 69.8¢ | $181K | Proven+$4.30 per $100 · 567 bets |
| pako0x71ed…d338 | Yes | 214,406 | 85.2¢ | $179K | Proven+$3.00 per $100 · 454 bets |
| MysticFind0x7cf9…2798 | Yes | 128,785 | 71.0¢ | $108K | Positive+$1.93 per $100 · 119 bets |
| 0x6302…7917 | Yes | 118,000 | 52.3¢ | $98.5K | Positive+$3.34 per $100 · 114 bets |
| faceverification0xde58…f55c | Yes | 77,237 | 70.8¢ | $64.5K | New35 settled bets |
| Aeglos0xb665…bf8f | Yes | 70,178 | 82.8¢ | $58.6K | New30 settled bets |
| SSCCAAMM0x2cea…4ecc | Yes | 56,881 | 63.4¢ | $47.5K | Losing−$16.97 per $100 · 231 bets |
| PotatoKotato0xa7cc…644e | Yes | 54,173 | 68.0¢ | $45.2K | Positive+$1.26 per $100 · 275 bets |
| ImJustKen0x9d84…1344 | Yes | 51,609 | 61.8¢ | $43.1K | Proven+$2.12 per $100 · 17,781 bets |
| ndb10xfea3…d227 | Yes | 47,965 | 35.0¢ | $40.1K | Positive+$3.49 per $100 · 2,383 bets |
| sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40 | Yes | 42,750 | 57.2¢ | $35.7K | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 6,321 bets |
| GrimoireWeiss0xe0bf…d7fe | Yes | 42,261 | 67.0¢ | $35.3K | Losing−$12.74 per $100 · 453 bets |
| nubet0xe056…8120 | Yes | 39,999 | 79.5¢ | $33.4K | New74 settled bets |
| simpleman0xbe89…b88c | Yes | 38,886 | 66.3¢ | $32.5K | Proven+$2.51 per $100 · 1,506 bets |
| gokol0x7a35…2744 | Yes | 35,896 | 85.0¢ | $30K | New26 settled bets |
| 0xe617…f251 | Yes | 31,162 | 81.0¢ | $26K | Break-even−$0.85 per $100 · 1,612 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | Yes | 30,000 | 20.3¢ | $25.1K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | Yes | 27,084 | 82.5¢ | $22.6K | Proven+$4.76 per $100 · 2,287 bets |
| KimJonEn0x8152…bfda | Yes | 24,725 | 61.5¢ | $20.6K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 1,459 bets |
| 0xshanhai0xf94c…59dc | Yes | 24,722 | 49.8¢ | $20.6K | New37 settled bets |
| MiuMiuYan0x0869…14f1 | Yes | 24,469 | 83.4¢ | $20.4K | New25 settled bets |
| pup10x54b5…4b31 | Yes | 20,000 | 35.4¢ | $16.7K | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 5,554 bets |
| koy91040x6192…12dd | Yes | 19,502 | 41.3¢ | $16.3K | New17 settled bets |
| blub.00x164e…785b | Yes | 18,250 | 48.2¢ | $15.2K | New93 settled bets |
| kukubaja0xa0c3…5b9a | Yes | 17,000 | 70.0¢ | $14.2K | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 1,092 bets |
| slobber0x4d41…6aca | Yes | 16,845 | 61.8¢ | $14.1K | Losing−$3.44 per $100 · 117 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 16,809 | 81.3¢ | $14K | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,397 bets |
| Randomfool0xf036…b8f1 | Yes | 16,700 | 71.3¢ | $13.9K | Positive+$1.79 per $100 · 120 bets |
| 0xFFT8890x5043…c3d9 | Yes | 15,484 | 83.3¢ | $12.9K | New21 settled bets |
| GoldmanSachs0x71dd…d61c | Yes | 15,458 | 45.9¢ | $12.9K | Proven+$12.50 per $100 · 534 bets |
| Debosnys0x7e30…1e50 | Yes | 15,400 | 82.4¢ | $12.9K | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 3,054 bets |
| firegold0x1d5f…634d | Yes | 15,000 | 61.0¢ | $12.5K | Proven+$3.24 per $100 · 667 bets |
| QMG-MACRO0x4755…4338 | Yes | 15,000 | 20.0¢ | $12.5K | New99 settled bets |
| obakobakk0xb4d2…fa62 | Yes | 15,000 | 71.9¢ | $12.5K | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 278 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | Yes | 14,754 | 63.9¢ | $12.3K | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | Yes | 14,522 | 76.8¢ | $12.1K | New60 settled bets |
| apmt0x328d…f7a9 | Yes | 14,500 | 84.0¢ | $12.1K | Proven+$9.98 per $100 · 114 bets |
| SaracensCapital20x94da…2bf1 | Yes | 13,600 | 72.0¢ | $11.4K | Losing−$4.10 per $100 · 294 bets |
| thebug440xde7c…c933 | No | 68,804 | 16.7¢ | $11.4K | Positive+$24.78 per $100 · 148 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | Yes | 13,560 | 54.7¢ | $11.3K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991 | No | 65,187 | 44.3¢ | $10.8K | Proven+$5.00 per $100 · 149 bets |
| arjennnnn0x24de…83cb | Yes | 12,500 | 54.3¢ | $10.4K | Break-even+$0.29 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| 0x265c…916e | Yes | 12,243 | 32.2¢ | $10.2K | New2 settled bets |
| can1110x5cfd…ca1b | Yes | 12,200 | 82.7¢ | $10.2K | Losing−$2.02 per $100 · 664 bets |
| huanghao0x7073…35ff | Yes | 12,048 | 83.7¢ | $10.1K | New50 settled bets |
| mmmppp3330x1b2e…26ae | Yes | 11,321 | 34.3¢ | $9.45K | New4 settled bets |
| LimitOrderLarry0x2568…ef92 | No | 55,099 | 17.7¢ | $9.09K | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 9,908 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | 52,248 | 18.0¢ | $8.62K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| Dreamlawn0xeee1…3e28 | No | 50,869 | 22.1¢ | $8.39K | New47 settled bets |
| nigiri990xdc41…dd7e | No | 44,116 | 17.7¢ | $7.28K | Losing−$2.81 per $100 · 31,789 bets |
| DOLLAR-PRINTER0x661d…4dc6 | No | 36,343 | 28.9¢ | $6K | Proven+$4.42 per $100 · 12,372 bets |
| 50-Pence0x9478…63f5 | No | 35,523 | 17.5¢ | $5.86K | Positive+$13.74 per $100 · 868 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | No | 32,000 | 18.5¢ | $5.28K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| ryzt0x75bb…0ac5 | No | 20,546 | 69.3¢ | $3.39K | Positive+$1.35 per $100 · 450 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 17,769 | 45.5¢ | $2.93K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| 0x90bf…99eb | No | 13,204 | 25.5¢ | $2.18K | Losing−$14.61 per $100 · 861 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 11,152 | 25.1¢ | $1.84K | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 21,994 bets |
| m00n0x3f02…a51c | No | 10,000 | 16.0¢ | $1.65K | Break-even+$0.22 per $100 · 288 bets |
| qfwdsd10x00cb…e987 | No | 7,221 | 35.6¢ | $1.19K | Losing−$4.68 per $100 · 2,952 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 6,739 | 19.7¢ | $1.11K | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,791 bets |
| dips.0xc785…4ef2 | No | 6,258 | 36.0¢ | $1.03K | Break-even−$0.53 per $100 · 30,440+ bets · updating |
| NotTheSharpestTool0x626e…fa46 | No | 6,252 | 43.7¢ | $1.03K | Proven+$23.81 per $100 · 296 bets |
| idunnowhyyy0x54fb…e7f3 | No | 5,403 | 17.7¢ | $892 | — |
| dipsy0x9753…9d8f | No | 4,892 | 37.8¢ | $807 | Losing−$5.07 per $100 · 720 bets |
| SunlineTicker0x4df3…788f | No | 4,539 | 35.0¢ | $749 | Positive+$1.93 per $100 · 16,125 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No | 4,455 | 29.1¢ | $735 | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| XAE12Archangel0xfbfd…0029 | No | 4,406 | 16.0¢ | $727 | Break-even−$0.20 per $100 · 1,715 bets |
| har-gow0xbb8e…2bee | No | 4,203 | 36.5¢ | $694 | New87 settled bets |
| ng60000x6ffd…a637 | No | 4,000 | 16.7¢ | $660 | Positive+$6.39 per $100 · 7,738 bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 3,982 | 17.5¢ | $657 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| JoeyJokesAlot0x8a02…bc34 | No | 3,750 | 16.2¢ | $619 | New24 settled bets |
| 0xcbab…9a8a | No | 3,477 | 21.0¢ | $574 | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 573 bets |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | No | 3,407 | 12.0¢ | $562 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | No | 3,000 | 25.0¢ | $495 | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| zhenxiao0xc9eb…6a67 | No | 3,000 | 35.0¢ | $495 | New40 settled bets |
| Gaditima0x7e59…7b8b | No | 2,673 | 19.0¢ | $441 | Losing−$3.82 per $100 · 22,723 bets |
| DanGabriel0x541c…c462 | No | 2,500 | 19.0¢ | $412 | Losing−$1.15 per $100 · 183 bets |
| BlueBase-5680x6c43…fb9b | No | 2,171 | 66.0¢ | $358 | Proven+$2.95 per $100 · 2,399 bets |
| almosthere0xbd2b…1a1b | No | 2,115 | 21.0¢ | $349 | Positive+$6.09 per $100 · 137 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 2,000 | 20.8¢ | $330 | Positive+$2.37 per $100 · 57,731+ bets · updating |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 2,000 | 17.7¢ | $330 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 19,488 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | No | 2,000 | 17.9¢ | $330 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| uraw0x8a4c…2c4c | No | 1,961 | 52.2¢ | $324 | Positive+$9.98 per $100 · 150 bets |
| euro-catcher0xc2e5…b3a5 | No | 1,924 | 56.2¢ | $318 | Losing−$4.50 per $100 · 4,780 bets |
| HJY20280x709f…094c | No | 1,872 | 18.4¢ | $309 | New38 settled bets |
| Champions260xf91e…4f48 | No | 1,863 | 70.9¢ | $307 | Proven+$6.90 per $100 · 902 bets |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | No | 1,500 | 61.3¢ | $247 | Positive+$3.93 per $100 · 2,966 bets |
| GidGud0x4867…a6f8 | No | 1,493 | 67.0¢ | $246 | Losing−$1.67 per $100 · 2,793 bets |
| gamblito0x6452…30a1 | No | 1,449 | 70.1¢ | $239 | Losing−$6.12 per $100 · 391 bets |
| yatata0xa072…9e34 | No | 1,400 | 27.4¢ | $231 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 2,111 bets |
| Alhemic0x353d…50f0 | Yes | 211 | 49.6¢ | $176 | Proven+$3.41 per $100 · 101 bets |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 15.5K shares each side · Show
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