Market · 3 of 4 outcomes
Will the US economy have slack at the end of 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:52 UTC. Not financial advice.
Exactly one of this event's 4 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vinii0x1ee9…197f | Yes | 1,834 | 0.5¢ | $36 | Proven+$5.82 per $100 · 7,338 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 29 | 98.1¢ | $28 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 415 | 7.2¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 320 | 0.3¢ | $6 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,514 bets |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 5 | 98.3¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,637 bets |
| awgraewrfa0x699e…a7ec | Yes | 155 | 23.4¢ | $3 | New0 settled bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 2 shares each side · Show
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These 4 outcomes add up to 101.4¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.