Market · 1 of 3 outcomes
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 16:46 UTC. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin price · Jan 1 · 1 event · $100K in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tnl0xb619…5068 | Yes | 30,677 | 37.1¢ | $20.6K | Break-even+$0.97 per $100 · 1,243 bets |
| ghuonliyelkihxeklkgeu0x294d…b362 | No | 29,396 | 68.2¢ | $9.7K | — |
| Zptml0xecb9…5a12 | Yes | 7,255 | 23.0¢ | $4.86K | New73 settled bets |
| imakebigbets0x09e3…48ac | Yes | 3,841 | 17.2¢ | $2.57K | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 440 bets |
| GenaCyberpunk0x816f…ace1 | Yes | 3,561 | 40.9¢ | $2.39K | New1 settled bet |
| XieGuangKun0x25dc…e33b | Yes | 3,143 | 27.6¢ | $2.11K | Proven+$9.37 per $100 · 1,200 bets |
| groth0x71ab…f015 | Yes | 3,136 | 15.6¢ | $2.1K | Proven+$20.88 per $100 · 540 bets |
| Chims0xeec5…b6fe | Yes | 2,388 | 65.0¢ | $1.6K | — |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | Yes | 1,832 | 12.4¢ | $1.23K | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| namarian9990x0749…6de9 | No | 3,412 | 56.3¢ | $1.13K | New32 settled bets |
| NOPH0x2412…f534 | Yes | 1,450 | 40.0¢ | $972 | New49 settled bets |
| Smart-bettor70x7845…417b | Yes | 1,272 | 55.6¢ | $852 | Losing−$1.64 per $100 · 525 bets |
| PACIFIST0xc752…62e1 | Yes | 1,250 | 60.5¢ | $838 | New68 settled bets |
| dhadad010xd8fa…5580 | Yes | 1,198 | 22.0¢ | $802 | Positive+$6.51 per $100 · 183 bets |
| VibeyQuant0x1f85…a51b | Yes | 1,091 | 27.0¢ | $731 | Proven+$3.09 per $100 · 1,520 bets |
| eCash0x62cf…5826 | No | 2,000 | 77.0¢ | $660 | Proven+$6.07 per $100 · 625 bets |
| DancewithGoddessLuck0xb26f…7e32 | Yes | 913 | 63.1¢ | $612 | — |
| Musk50x1229…df38 | Yes | 800 | 66.7¢ | $536 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 494 bets |
| wttg0xdf25…3b7f | Yes | 700 | 26.0¢ | $469 | New64 settled bets |
| The-Defect0xac6a…2ed3 | Yes | 640 | 64.0¢ | $429 | — |
| 0x0d62…27e0 | Yes | 600 | 22.5¢ | $402 | Proven+$5.78 per $100 · 301 bets |
| dsfd30x407d…52fd | Yes | 580 | 54.9¢ | $389 | — |
| yhvf0000xbfdc…c9cd | Yes | 558 | 16.1¢ | $374 | — |
| Liquidifier0x4818…bf0b | Yes | 500 | 25.0¢ | $335 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 3,668 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 400 | 9.0¢ | $268 | Positive+$14.54 per $100 · 54,353 bets |
| wastebrook0xf33d…24ca | Yes | 400 | 67.0¢ | $268 | — |
| pm-maio-20260xbd41…a6de | No | 656 | 38.0¢ | $217 | New62 settled bets |
| Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed0x122c…fbed | No | 626 | 34.2¢ | $207 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 19,896 bets |
| James-Talarico0x4262…abaa | Yes | 300 | 64.0¢ | $201 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 1,617 bets |
| extractive-manatee0xf9f2…5cba | Yes | 298 | 16.5¢ | $200 | Positive+$6.30 per $100 · 4,487 bets |
| 0x34cd…527c | Yes | 289 | 13.9¢ | $194 | — |
| LaJeunesse0x2f55…74da | Yes | 283 | 18.0¢ | $190 | — |
| StarMaster0xeca0…e8f8 | No | 500 | 78.2¢ | $165 | Proven+$2.31 per $100 · 4,789 bets |
| AnonTet0xca29…287f | No | 500 | 33.0¢ | $165 | — |
| 0x06d8…9446 | Yes | 245 | 32.9¢ | $164 | — |
| 0xdac4…a8c9 | Yes | 230 | 53.6¢ | $154 | — |
| 0x5e9f…91db | Yes | 223 | 66.9¢ | $149 | Proven+$23.37 per $100 · 535 bets |
| MaxEnt0xcf07…c770 | Yes | 204 | 68.8¢ | $136 | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 690 bets |
| baybug0xfb66…5e13 | Yes | 203 | 64.1¢ | $136 | — |
| mookzer0xcdcd…7865 | Yes | 200 | 24.0¢ | $134 | — |
| 0x780a…c0c7 | Yes | 200 | 15.0¢ | $134 | — |
| 0xba38…f74d | Yes | 185 | 68.0¢ | $124 | Positive+$9.17 per $100 · 908 bets |
| 0x43cf…caa1 | Yes | 182 | 56.0¢ | $122 | — |
| Wachufleiba880xa255…2ffc | Yes | 178 | 57.2¢ | $119 | — |
| gambling2270x5665…32cd | Yes | 178 | 22.5¢ | $119 | — |
| 0x996a…b9c9 | Yes | 147 | 68.9¢ | $98 | — |
| keoen0xac99…1380 | Yes | 135 | 13.5¢ | $90 | — |
| ChiangWan-an0x0d5e…5c24 | Yes | 135 | 64.0¢ | $90 | Break-even−$0.93 per $100 · 1,861 bets |
| musicman0x8c80…d6f3 | Yes | 125 | 20.0¢ | $84 | — |
| yiuyoo0x21a3…9e97 | Yes | 120 | 45.5¢ | $80 | — |
| PABLOESCOBAR250x6b49…2e46 | Yes | 116 | 62.2¢ | $78 | Losing−$1.82 per $100 · 615 bets |
| 0x16c7…22cd | Yes | 116 | 33.3¢ | $78 | — |
| plsnothackme0xc291…30ab | No | 220 | 40.5¢ | $73 | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 303 bets |
| supandyhhh0x88e8…5f6e | Yes | 108 | 41.6¢ | $72 | — |
| Flaner0x585b…753f | No | 207 | 80.0¢ | $68 | Losing−$4.08 per $100 · 927 bets |
| AlAhmeda0x9d73…216b | Yes | 101 | 66.4¢ | $68 | Losing−$1.99 per $100 · 4,949 bets |
| PutsOnPeace0x635d…5025 | Yes | 100 | 18.6¢ | $67 | Proven+$2.03 per $100 · 2,042 bets |
| 50388131850x453a…81d2 | Yes | 100 | 46.0¢ | $67 | Proven+$17.49 per $100 · 140 bets |
| 0xe3ce8c7802e36862cec738ac5a859a37fcbd9df0xe3ce…d9df | Yes | 100 | 30.0¢ | $67 | — |
| Chersi0xaad3…e666 | No | 150 | 41.1¢ | $49 | — |
| 0x6c10…df5c | No | 133 | 70.0¢ | $44 | Losing−$7.13 per $100 · 1,041 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 120 | 75.5¢ | $39 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,106 bets |
| ooops0xcb14…5358 | No | 106 | 74.0¢ | $35 | Break-even−$0.36 per $100 · 7,272 bets |
| yomamatrades0x1c50…73b8 | No | 100 | 91.0¢ | $33 | Losing−$1.04 per $100 · 253 bets |
| dadadabababab0xb49f…12e6 | No | 100 | 69.0¢ | $33 | — |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 100 | 79.0¢ | $33 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| hping020x9e25…afd6 | No | 62 | 32.6¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x49d4…5696 | No | 59 | 37.5¢ | $19 | — |
| smye1000xfb8e…3dc3 | No | 55 | 32.9¢ | $18 | Losing−$3.44 per $100 · 5,616 bets |
| ktv.020xeab5…f570 | No | 51 | 44.1¢ | $17 | — |
| name5050xbad6…9963 | No | 49 | 77.0¢ | $16 | — |
| Yumtion0x6c63…23cf | No | 49 | 42.1¢ | $16 | — |
| webb50080xd41b…83a4 | No | 45 | 89.6¢ | $15 | — |
| Deepcoin0x6b36…0d4b | No | 31 | 47.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$21.43 per $100 · 31,280+ bets · updating |
| bulbnbob0x77b5…9170 | No | 29 | 88.4¢ | $10 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | No | 29 | 30.8¢ | $10 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| TheIronBank0xcda1…d9ad | No | 28 | 85.9¢ | $9 | — |
| 0xd787…7c12 | No | 24 | 40.4¢ | $8 | — |
| 0xa1c7…bdbb | No | 21 | 48.0¢ | $7 | New83 settled bets |
| vyemfql0x5848…b529 | No | 21 | 81.3¢ | $7 | Proven+$12.63 per $100 · 203 bets |
| 0x61f2…e77a | No | 20 | 47.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.88 per $100 · 1,656 bets |
| BobbyBakedBeans0x8728…0882 | No | 18 | 41.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xc008…cb01 | No | 17 | 60.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | No | 17 | 45.9¢ | $6 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 15 | 37.4¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.61 per $100 · 123,902+ bets · updating |
| LBZbot20xdb6c…ee14 | No | 13 | 88.0¢ | $4 | — |
| thugs0xe49a…3c20 | No | 13 | 78.0¢ | $4 | — |
| HARIRA-SOUP0xff47…d81f | No | 13 | 86.0¢ | $4 | — |
| BlueMoon30x2bbb…5b0f | No | 11 | 76.0¢ | $3 | — |
| boxxin0x0245…dcca | No | 8 | 61.0¢ | $3 | — |
| virtua0x61e9…425a | No | 5 | 58.0¢ | $2 | — |
| olivas0x37a0…ec34 | No | 5 | 76.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.30 per $100 · 778 bets |
| 0x42b2…00c3 | No | 5 | 77.0¢ | $2 | — |
| jjeeesusssus0x59fe…14fd | No | 5 | 81.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.62 per $100 · 20,907 bets |
| 15rob0x2afd…deb4 | No | 4 | 81.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$2.28 per $100 · 9,823 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 3 | 70.1¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,285 bets |
| bigceohiko0x5b7b…5116 | No | 3 | 52.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$12.13 per $100 · 468 bets |
| GuillaumeJwk0x2757…1233 | No | 3 | 78.0¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.