Market · 1 of 3 outcomes
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
Bitcoin price · Jan 1 · 1 event · $100K in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| tnl0xb619…5068 | Yes | 30,677 | 37.1¢ | $20.6K | Break-even+$0.97 per $100 · 1,242 bets |
| ghuonliyelkihxeklkgeu0x294d…b362 | No | 29,396 | 68.2¢ | $9.7K | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Zptml0xecb9…5a12 |
| Yes |
| 7,255 |
| 23.0¢ |
| $4.86K |
| New73 settled bets |
| imakebigbets0x09e3…48ac | Yes | 3,841 | 17.2¢ | $2.57K | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 440 bets |
| GenaCyberpunk0x816f…ace1 | Yes | 3,561 | 40.9¢ | $2.39K | New1 settled bet |
| XieGuangKun0x25dc…e33b | Yes | 3,143 | 27.6¢ | $2.11K | — |
These 3 outcomes add up to 94.5¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.