Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 16:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
Fed decision · October 2026 · 1 event · $4.53M in play
Exactly one of this event's 5 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 4 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProfessionalPunter0x22e4…ef1c | No | 100,000 | 99.5¢ | $99.5K | Proven+$4.52 per $100 · 1,293 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | No | 50,747 | 93.9¢ | $50.5K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | No | 33,333 | 99.5¢ | $33.1K | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| 0xcb01…7dfb | No | 19,467 | 96.3¢ | $19.4K | Proven+$2.04 per $100 · 6,483 bets |
| QMG-CORE0xcaab…24dd | No | 10,000 | 99.5¢ | $9.95K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 2,408 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | No | 5,500 | 99.5¢ | $5.47K | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 44,379+ bets · updating |
| QMG-MACRO0x4755…4338 | No | 5,000 | 99.6¢ | $4.97K | New99 settled bets |
| AxiosReporter120x02e9…e4c9 | No | 5,000 | 99.3¢ | $4.97K | New30 settled bets |
| tonyboy1080x6d1b…1bec | No | 3,174 | 99.4¢ | $3.16K | — |
| Horaizon0x89ff…3972 | No | 2,667 | 99.5¢ | $2.65K | — |
| MirAsifAhr0x9437…e75f | No | 2,590 | 96.2¢ | $2.58K | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 552 bets |
| anykey0x0bb8…253e | Yes | 448,895 | 0.4¢ | $2.47K | New9 settled bets |
| Bplnt0x7001…2aba | Yes | 410,068 | 0.5¢ | $2.26K | — |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 2,222 | 99.5¢ | $2.21K | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,397 bets |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 2,039 | 98.0¢ | $2.03K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| randjoe2710x3666…939b | No | 2,000 | 99.6¢ | $1.99K | — |
| OLOTH0x8de6…2938 | No | 2,000 | 99.5¢ | $1.99K | Break-even−$0.42 per $100 · 1,145 bets |
| CB-Compound0xbc6c…287c | No | 2,000 | 99.5¢ | $1.99K | — |
| okokok-80x7521…5ee5 | No | 1,413 | 99.1¢ | $1.41K | — |
| Ammarko0xdd9c…4ae0 | Yes | 247,970 | 0.6¢ | $1.36K | — |
| 555555550x8224…bea8 | No | 1,364 | 99.0¢ | $1.36K | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,174 | 99.6¢ | $1.17K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,860 bets |
| ok-60x2e7d…103e | No | 1,042 | 96.2¢ | $1.04K | — |
| polmarke1950x2dc0…3df6 | No | 1,000 | 99.5¢ | $995 | — |
| SaracensCapital20x94da…2bf1 | No | 1,000 | 98.4¢ | $995 | Losing−$4.10 per $100 · 294 bets |
| kinderSman0xa6d9…fd2f | No | 1,000 | 96.0¢ | $995 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 842 bets |
| 0x1d4a…46f5 | Yes | 168,750 | 0.4¢ | $928 | New1 settled bet |
| 333333330xdba9…c35b | No | 808 | 99.1¢ | $804 | — |
| ok-20xb8c7…8344 | No | 729 | 96.2¢ | $725 | — |
| LuckyBaskar0xf933…4069 | Yes | 131,681 | 0.5¢ | $724 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 703 | 99.2¢ | $699 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| YCcap0xf943…bf06 | Yes | 123,134 | 0.5¢ | $677 | — |
| 10Alexander3210x4d6e…f977 | Yes | 117,577 | 0.6¢ | $647 | — |
| Tony1080x7410…f96f | No | 608 | 99.6¢ | $605 | — |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | Yes | 108,527 | 20.0¢ | $597 | New55 settled bets |
| Ninelona0x1c07…89a0 | Yes | 107,470 | 0.7¢ | $591 | — |
| poposub0x3d7d…10fc | No | 523 | 99.5¢ | $520 | — |
| zhenheng0x9109…688a | Yes | 91,026 | 0.5¢ | $501 | — |
| CT-test0x5ad6…d276 | No | 502 | 99.5¢ | $500 | — |
| ChadLiteplus0x8acb…7e0f | Yes | 88,697 | 0.6¢ | $488 | New14 settled bets |
| zhuhao40x0715…22ce | No | 470 | 94.9¢ | $468 | — |
| 0xdb45…b5d6 | Yes | 73,048 | 0.4¢ | $402 | Proven+$21.94 per $100 · 864 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 391 | 99.1¢ | $389 | Positive+$3.36 per $100 · 1,955 bets |
| foodenjoyer0x7b02…4991 | Yes | 62,293 | 20.0¢ | $343 | Proven+$5.00 per $100 · 149 bets |
| 12zzzz30x9189…2bef | Yes | 59,170 | 0.5¢ | $325 | — |
| 0x6539…23ad | No | 316 | 0.0¢ | $314 | — |
| 0x1ed8…04a2 | Yes | 56,219 | 0.7¢ | $309 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | No | 303 | 90.4¢ | $301 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| vivi-20260x0ac4…d344 | No | 300 | 96.2¢ | $298 | — |
| Elposton0xe228…1f4c | Yes | 48,043 | 0.5¢ | $264 | — |
| 0x43cb…84df | No | 250 | 99.5¢ | $249 | Positive+$6.88 per $100 · 29,809 bets |
| 0xb78c…a181 | Yes | 38,780 | 1.0¢ | $213 | — |
| gopherbud0xf604…7017 | No | 213 | 94.3¢ | $212 | — |
| Gigachain16220x976a…e8ec | No | 213 | 88.8¢ | $212 | — |
| WeJustBettin0xf6c6…7d80 | No | 206 | 97.3¢ | $205 | Break-even−$0.65 per $100 · 735 bets |
| Gaujmalietis0xd883…4fd7 | No | 202 | 82.7¢ | $201 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 1,573 bets |
| fafafafafafafafsadasdq0xd798…f8bc | Yes | 36,488 | 3.7¢ | $201 | — |
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 200 | 96.1¢ | $199 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
| 0x7d93…fdef | No | 200 | 92.7¢ | $199 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 12,555 bets |
| yingxer0xded8…ca0f | No | 200 | 99.3¢ | $199 | New36 settled bets |
| zouzouzou1230x3985…d103 | Yes | 32,075 | 4.9¢ | $176 | — |
| xcvdsdfs0x58a5…dc42 | No | 174 | 99.6¢ | $173 | — |
| Mac-Gyver0x524d…4495 | Yes | 30,000 | 0.7¢ | $165 | Proven+$12.11 per $100 · 580 bets |
| lanesamuel0x3722…cdaa | No | 164 | 99.6¢ | $163 | — |
| 0x86f6…8993 | Yes | 28,571 | 0.7¢ | $157 | New39 settled bets |
| KairosFaker0xea97…dcd5 | No | 150 | 90.5¢ | $149 | — |
| MenachemCohen0x2887…a552 | No | 148 | 91.4¢ | $148 | — |
| aatiancai0x741f…f9ae | Yes | 24,768 | 1.5¢ | $136 | — |
| acrax0xaa25…ad8a | No | 137 | 99.6¢ | $136 | — |
| ccsafdg0x1b04…365d | No | 134 | 99.6¢ | $133 | — |
| 0x1777…151d | No | 132 | 99.5¢ | $131 | — |
| lqbeijing0x50ef…5e6e | Yes | 22,553 | 3.9¢ | $124 | — |
| Ferwhere0x152f…a549 | Yes | 22,068 | 4.7¢ | $121 | Positive+$68.55 per $100 · 157 bets |
| Loser.Boy0xe5c6…c89a | Yes | 20,300 | 0.5¢ | $112 | — |
| rushrimper0x5745…aa5e | Yes | 20,000 | 0.5¢ | $110 | — |
| hiaurelius0xc386…86d7 | Yes | 18,715 | 2.2¢ | $103 | New4 settled bets |
| 0xd701…917d | Yes | 17,869 | 5.1¢ | $98 | — |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 16,335 | 1.1¢ | $90 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 15,703 bets |
| 0x19ea…5d08 | Yes | 12,500 | 0.8¢ | $69 | — |
| nigiri990xdc41…dd7e | Yes | 11,683 | 1.4¢ | $64 | Losing−$2.81 per $100 · 31,789 bets |
| 0xe5db…f982 | Yes | 10,074 | 0.5¢ | $55 | — |
| 0x265c…916e | Yes | 10,000 | 0.5¢ | $55 | New2 settled bets |
| 0x9064…27d3 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.5¢ | $55 | — |
| Saloom100x95f7…c718 | Yes | 10,000 | 0.5¢ | $55 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 9,375 | 1.5¢ | $52 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 30,060+ bets · updating |
| 0x2a5f…6c92 | Yes | 9,180 | 0.7¢ | $50 | Losing−$3.02 per $100 · 114 bets |
| Jamawds0xa084…bceb | Yes | 9,142 | 2.3¢ | $50 | — |
| 0x78e7…2c77 | Yes | 8,465 | 17.2¢ | $47 | — |
| sleepy-panda0xa49b…4c40 | Yes | 8,027 | 0.5¢ | $44 | Break-even−$0.60 per $100 · 6,321 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 7,380 | 20.0¢ | $41 | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 191,746 bets |
| namomo7880x0ef9…b95a | Yes | 7,356 | 3.6¢ | $40 | — |
| duxiu60x3274…87bb | Yes | 7,143 | 0.7¢ | $39 | — |
| Euwenger.L0x9efa…7c06 | Yes | 6,884 | 0.5¢ | $38 | — |
| kod.cip0x92ae…0376 | Yes | 6,582 | 2.4¢ | $36 | — |
| 0xb4b5…1bd4 | Yes | 6,335 | 0.6¢ | $35 | Losing−$10.78 per $100 · 1,476 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 6,287 | 7.0¢ | $35 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| 0xf7ab…0242 | Yes | 6,270 | 0.6¢ | $34 | — |
| jaycz0xaeab…4997 | Yes | 6,239 | 0.6¢ | $34 | — |
| Fa-opyrum0x81c8…288b | Yes | 6,020 | 2.3¢ | $33 | — |
| zzaqq20xd331…733c | Yes | 5,597 | 7.3¢ | $31 | Losing−$9.72 per $100 · 4,328 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.