Santiago Abascal

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 16 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 101.3¢ right now.

Decided by

The next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Spain by March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.§1

Interim or caretaker

An interim or caretaker Prime Minister without a parliamentary vote of confidence does not count.§3

No one takes office

If no such Prime Minister takes office by the deadline, the market resolves to "Other".§4

Counted

The individual must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn-in, forming a new government.§2

Source

Official information from the Government of Spain; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.§5

Closes

Mar 31, 2028 · 23:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• Alberto Núñez Feijóo 80.5¢
• Pedro Sánchez 16.8¢
• Santiago Abascal 1.7¢
• Isabel Díaz Ayuso 1.1¢
• Carlos Cuerpo 0.6¢
• Yolanda Díaz 0.2¢
• Óscar Puente 0.2¢
• María Jesús Montero 0.1¢
• Ernest Urtasun 0.1¢
• Aitor Esteban 0.1¢
• Miguel Tellado 0.1¢
• Ester Muñoz 0.1¢

4 more outcomes in this event.

These 16 outcomes add up to 101.3¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.