Market · 4 of 8 outcomes
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 20:57 UTC. Not financial advice.
Largest-company ranking · Dec 31 · 2 events · $507K in play
Exactly one of this event's 8 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lolykat0xb8da…c945 | No | 3,748 | 99.7¢ | $3.74K | — |
| marineann0x83b7…cc14 | No | 2,808 | 99.7¢ | $2.8K | New55 settled bets |
| Tokor0xa19c…de6b | Yes | 65,398 | 0.8¢ | $229 | Proven+$13.26 per $100 · 1,733 bets |
| Hauchn0xf0ca…66ed | Yes | 42,109 | 3.0¢ | $147 | Positive+$28.32 per $100 · 235 bets |
| 0x3764…c5eb | Yes | 37,243 | 0.8¢ | $130 | Proven+$7.48 per $100 · 1,193 bets |
| SteveTheFish0xe917…9612 | Yes | 31,764 | 0.4¢ | $111 | — |
| FlashTradeOracleTester0xa912…297f | No | 105 | 93.7¢ | $105 | — |
| suosuojiu0x8387…f44c | No | 100 | 99.3¢ | $100 | — |
| crypto-futur30x31cc…ea6b | No | 97 | 99.5¢ | $97 | New48 settled bets |
| tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5 | Yes | 25,520 | 0.6¢ | $89 | Break-even−$0.43 per $100 · 1,083 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 67 | 99.7¢ | $67 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 23,039 bets |
| Donintello0x1d38…2078 | Yes | 17,419 | 1.6¢ | $61 | Positive+$2.49 per $100 · 141 bets |
| jozeslemsek0xd0bf…9f9f | Yes | 15,134 | 0.3¢ | $53 | — |
| ncopsokdf0x3764…5b8a | No | 52 | 99.3¢ | $52 | — |
| expire0xb860…7a17 | No | 50 | 99.4¢ | $50 | — |
| Hanilus0x7ca1…ccad | No | 50 | 99.5¢ | $50 | — |
| 0xcc81…da07 | Yes | 13,660 | 1.3¢ | $48 | — |
| strtedfromtheb100x3b06…9b69 | Yes | 10,054 | 0.9¢ | $35 | — |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 9,703 | 2.1¢ | $34 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 5,663 bets |
| cishanperson0xea5b…0e03 | No | 33 | 99.2¢ | $33 | — |
| yyyyyyy0x3143…81b1 | Yes | 8,887 | 6.1¢ | $31 | Losing−$4.31 per $100 · 679 bets |
| nghtyt0xd524…b3a0 | No | 30 | 99.7¢ | $30 | — |
| vsiv0x1465…f9f4 | No | 30 | 99.5¢ | $30 | — |
| dasuoliu0xa717…73d2 | No | 30 | 99.6¢ | $30 | — |
| zaojun0xe7d1…ae10 | No | 26 | 99.6¢ | $26 | — |
| money000x63d5…2de8 | No | 25 | 99.5¢ | $25 | — |
| alensee0xb21b…ed71 | No | 24 | 99.6¢ | $24 | — |
| 3874110074156118140922178973870xa49b…7054 | Yes | 6,806 | 1.5¢ | $24 | Proven+$3.34 per $100 · 43,926 bets |
| coffeez0xdd6d…0486 | No | 22 | 99.7¢ | $22 | — |
| 3423470x3709…d526 | No | 20 | 97.9¢ | $20 | — |
| kllkdd0xd156…74f2 | No | 20 | 99.4¢ | $20 | — |
| galxegirl0xfe70…de8b | No | 20 | 99.5¢ | $20 | — |
| yrftg0x4d4a…6139 | No | 18 | 99.5¢ | $18 | — |
| BornAgain260x978e…80bc | Yes | 5,134 | 0.6¢ | $18 | — |
| Natsan0x91e5…0947 | Yes | 4,700 | 0.9¢ | $16 | — |
| AnimalEater0xa445…0286 | Yes | 4,466 | 0.4¢ | $16 | Proven+$58.33 per $100 · 566 bets |
| uuioo0x0179…c2ba | No | 15 | 97.6¢ | $15 | — |
| gfddfsd0x17b9…f903 | No | 14 | 99.4¢ | $14 | — |
| BabyGroot0xbefa…300d | Yes | 4,100 | 0.6¢ | $14 | Positive+$12.28 per $100 · 3,944 bets |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 14 | 94.1¢ | $14 | Break-even−$0.06 per $100 · 50,803 bets |
| zenix6840x5a46…043a | Yes | 3,860 | 0.6¢ | $14 | — |
| erlry0x0a7b…b17d | No | 12 | 99.7¢ | $12 | — |
| viqk0x29ea…701e | Yes | 3,331 | 0.9¢ | $12 | Losing−$74.83 per $100 · 605 bets |
| Transh0xa6ef…2bd7 | No | 11 | 97.9¢ | $11 | — |
| joyce1w0x33c9…2fd4 | No | 10 | 98.9¢ | $10 | — |
| bengen0x1ae9…a08a | No | 10 | 99.3¢ | $10 | — |
| dongong0x0814…9353 | No | 10 | 99.5¢ | $10 | — |
| matrixisrealfosho0x1201…924a | No | 10 | 99.3¢ | $10 | — |
| everymarket0xa1a0…2746 | No | 9 | 99.3¢ | $9 | Losing−$16.23 per $100 · 1,232 bets |
| Skaliz0x4ba4…8a89 | Yes | 2,644 | 2.5¢ | $9 | Positive+$1.34 per $100 · 1,501 bets |
| acal0x250c…2774 | Yes | 2,623 | 0.5¢ | $9 | Positive+$16.56 per $100 · 11,141 bets |
| gabrielse0x2da6…867f | No | 9 | 97.9¢ | $9 | — |
| JoE0x7740…cbcd | No | 9 | 98.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 11,334 bets |
| Perypery0x0a7a…df1b | Yes | 2,500 | 0.4¢ | $9 | Positive+$11.83 per $100 · 5,351 bets |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | Yes | 2,500 | 0.4¢ | $9 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,812 bets |
| 0xb3fb…a324 | Yes | 2,465 | 0.9¢ | $9 | — |
| dfrt550x4a1e…b901 | No | 9 | 99.3¢ | $8 | — |
| khgfd56780x1a1c…4b98 | No | 8 | 99.7¢ | $8 | — |
| poytyn9jg0x466a…8156 | No | 8 | 99.7¢ | $8 | New78 settled bets |
| ilovethefuturesomuch0xfc2d…063f | Yes | 2,280 | 3.1¢ | $8 | — |
| 0x225b…422a | Yes | 2,222 | 0.9¢ | $8 | Proven+$9.48 per $100 · 304 bets |
| Tony100x4274…ba73 | Yes | 2,000 | 0.5¢ | $7 | — |
| fgty60x981b…fd46 | No | 7 | 99.5¢ | $7 | — |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | Yes | 1,795 | 3.6¢ | $6 | Positive+$3.79 per $100 · 102,570 bets |
| FerdSon0xfe7b…8868 | No | 6 | 99.0¢ | $6 | — |
| luttoo0xc914…c458 | Yes | 1,667 | 0.6¢ | $6 | — |
| sdefft60x2c22…22e6 | No | 6 | 99.6¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xc7ad…21ba | Yes | 1,593 | 0.7¢ | $6 | — |
| pabss0xed2a…2606 | Yes | 1,560 | 1.1¢ | $5 | — |
| Wise44140x116f…6fad | Yes | 1,536 | 5.3¢ | $5 | New24 settled bets |
| azsd4550x6e6c…064c | No | 5 | 99.6¢ | $5 | — |
| SpyVsSpy0x1137…4ed5 | Yes | 1,471 | 0.7¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 1,493 bets |
| dudes0x15ef…a4b0 | No | 5 | 97.9¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xf2ba…56e7 | No | 5 | 99.2¢ | $5 | — |
| SpiRaX0x7b90…1d17 | Yes | 1,435 | 7.1¢ | $5 | Losing−$9.52 per $100 · 1,080 bets |
| 0x5f10…9d99 | No | 5 | 99.3¢ | $5 | — |
| bvb10x7ca6…639e | No | 5 | 99.3¢ | $5 | — |
| NXSEFDSAsNCX0x8009…3e9a | No | 5 | 99.3¢ | $5 | — |
| jtyrse0x6ed6…2bbc | No | 5 | 99.7¢ | $5 | — |
| sxzw4550x9bba…249c | No | 5 | 99.7¢ | $5 | — |
| dse5560x110b…5adf | No | 5 | 99.4¢ | $5 | — |
| products0x8575…87fe | Yes | 1,396 | 3.6¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.86 per $100 · 10,069 bets |
| andreasq0xf85f…ae1e | No | 5 | 98.1¢ | $5 | — |
| Labas.As.Tomas0xd5f6…7d33 | Yes | 1,300 | 2.7¢ | $5 | — |
| obpq0xc511…a34e | Yes | 1,250 | 0.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 420210x0d42…f124 | Yes | 1,249 | 2.8¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 9,228 bets |
| SGLPNRSIO0x4c53…38f9 | Yes | 1,143 | 0.7¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x43cb…84df | Yes | 1,131 | 0.4¢ | $4 | Positive+$6.94 per $100 · 30,388 bets |
| HCWHO0xb70d…76ab | Yes | 1,100 | 1.2¢ | $4 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 1,098 | 3.6¢ | $4 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 195,513 bets |
| Crypt0xRick0xa4f9…a7b1 | Yes | 1,020 | 0.8¢ | $4 | — |
| LuigiIV0xb937…7092 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.5¢ | $4 | — |
| Liamo280x71c2…735d | Yes | 940 | 0.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x181c…e8bf | Yes | 889 | 0.9¢ | $3 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 884 | 1.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$4.44 per $100 · 6,528 bets |
| WarriorH0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | 863 | 3.6¢ | $3 | Positive+$3.64 per $100 · 14,872 bets |
| Mike30x1854…d1a3 | Yes | 833 | 0.6¢ | $3 | — |
| arbokbro0x0cc7…bc74 | Yes | 800 | 0.7¢ | $3 | — |
| lilili990xbc7c…c08e | Yes | 800 | 4.1¢ | $3 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 5 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.